1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[Wolfpack25]

I hope that everyone wakes up in the morning and we all are looking at the models telling us we are getting lots of snow.  

[Brick Tamland]

21 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

All i know is whatever Brick did today to bring back his storm should never be talked about.




.

I'd tell you but then I'd have to kill you.

[wncsnow]

Not sure if the data was ingested by the RDPS or ICON, but they are much further south than the Nam or GFS

 

[MJO812]

Icon 

[Brick Tamland]

1 hour ago, Regan said:

Webb is really going out on a limb but he might just be right with the way the models are coming in more and more NW.

[Thrasher Fan]

16 minutes ago, Wolfpack25 said:

I hope that everyone wakes up in the morning and we all are looking at the models telling us we are getting lots of snow.  

Sleep? There's no time for sleep.

[BornAgain13]

Not sure what this means later on but...

[GaWx]

0Z ICON: slight SE shift vs 18Z

0Z

 

18Z was a little to the NW of 0Z

[BornAgain13]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z NAM: slight SE shift vs 18Z

0Z

 

18Z was a little to the NW of 0Z

This is the icon not the NAM

[Regan]

I was about to say…

[GaWx]

Houston started having sleet at 8PM EST/7PM CST. I wonder how that compares to the timing of the qpf start on various models.

[GaWx]

0Z GFS early maps look pretty similar to 18Z fwiw.

[cbmclean]

52 minutes ago, MHCWEATHER said:

We’re probably distantly related. I’m a McLean, and my grandfather’s clan is generally from Gray’s Creek 

I'm glad to see you spell it right!!

[donsutherland1]

Latest HREF:

[dsaur]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

0Z NAM going north means more sleet and ZR down here on it: now may go ahead and charge my backup power packs in case ZR ends up dominating and is heavy

sleet: would undoubtedly be alltime record IP by far in SE GA: some of this is off the top end of the chart!

@dsaur

I think you'll be fine if the zr is under 1/3 of an inch.  Hopefully the sleet will take over.  There are a lot of trees in Sav, but hopefully it won't pull down the lines unless a tree falls on them.  The moles are doing a sleet thrum in honor of Mr. Abacus, so there's that. I'm down to 22.2, so a hot ground won't be a problem

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

[PackGrad05]

GFS was nice. 

[GaWx]

0Z GFS qpf: fairly similar to 18Z

[GunBlade]

Not that this translates to a bigger NW shift or more snow for those of us on the edge but it’s sad how poorly the latest model runs depict the current radar…First is NAM second is HRRR. 

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Not that this translates to a bigger NW shift or more snow for those of us on the edge but it’s sad how poorly the latest model runs depict the current radar…First is NAM second is HRRR. 

Looks a lot better than the models.

[GaWx]

0Z GFS is a big hit of a mix in SE GA/S SC:

Kuchera snow

 

IP:

 

ZR:

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Wormy2005]

Had a little bit of snow in my area!! It stuck to my grill cover for a few seconds and then melted !!! Oh my gosh how cool!!! 

[Brick Tamland]

[MHCWEATHER]

27 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'm glad to see you spell it right!!

Well, it is my last name  - many years of practice 

[HKY_WX]

On 1/18/2025 at 4:40 PM, HKY_WX said:

This what i'm thinking currently. Will update with some totals tomorrow night. I don't expect any dramatic jumps with this system at this point as the pattern doesn't dictate such, but a trend NW as we get near gametime wouldn't be unexpected (if not expected given the last 2 systems of note). I've noticed the GFS has had a bias of overshearing STJ waves recently until it self correct within 72 hours. This is one reason for the last minute corrections we've seen with some of the models. From an NC IMBY perspective, my location of Choice would be somewhere around Greenville NC to Kinston NC. Not sure I would expect historic snowfall but moderate to major for that area in NC. The totals in LA/Southern MS/AL could be historic however.

 

Following up with a totals map. I think we'll continue to see a slow trend NW with the precip shield up until gametime on the models for the reasons I suggested above. Timing will be important tomorrow in NC as temperatures will be below freezing and anything that falls will start to impact the evening commute immediately. 

 

[metalicwx367]

33 and sleet rn lol. Started a good 18 hours early. 

 

 

[Thrasher Fan]

3 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said:

33 and sleet rn lol. Started a good 18 hours early. 

 

 

Start up an OBS thread

[MDsnowPRO]

10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Following up with a totals map. I think we'll continue to see a slow trend NW with the totals up until gametime. The gfs/rgem have consistently oversheared STJ waves this winter resulting in a consistent trend NW over the 36 to 48 hours leading up to the event. Again i wouldn't consider this a dramatic development/trend given the last few days of model runs showing consistent opportunities for this overrunning system. Timing will be important tomorrow in NC as temperatures will be below freezing and anything that falls will start to impact the evening commute immediately. 

 

 

Did you forget to label the coast?