1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[btownheel]

Keep on coming NW baby….


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[NorthHillsWx]

This hobby takes a toll on your sanity 

[VABILLUPS1]

[StantonParkHoya]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

This hobby takes a toll on your sanity 

In other societies we’d all be locked away and institutionalized 

[snowinnc]

33 minutes ago, Regan said:

If Fayetteville really gets 1”-3” of snow, that’s going to make me happy. Growing up there and going to school in 34 degree rain while Raleigh kids had snow days really ticked me off. After we moved to North Raleigh, I thought we would be enjoying the snow I saw from afar growing up, but no, we get no snow!

[Prismshine Productions]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Hi Res NAM 

Lake Marion Lake Effect Snow in Orangeburg County... that isnt something you see every winter...

[BornAgain13]

Tim Buckleys update 

[snowinnc]

4 minutes ago, VABILLUPS1 said:

Another 50 mile tick NW would be excellent. Pretty please, I’m asking nicely.

[GaWx]

0Z NAM going north means more sleet and ZR down here on it: now may go ahead and charge my backup power packs in case ZR ends up dominating and is heavy

sleet: would undoubtedly be alltime record IP by far in SE GA: some of this is off the top end of the chart!

@dsaur

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

If Fayetteville really gets 1”-3” of snow, that’s going to make me happy. Growing up there and going to school in 34 degree rain while Raleigh kids had snow days really ticked me off. After we moved to North Raleigh, I thought we would be enjoying the snow I saw from afar growing up, but no, we get no snow!

Hey, which High School did you go to?  I'm from Hope Mills.

[snowinnc]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Hey, which High School did you go to?  I'm from Hope Mills.

Very cool! I went to Fayetteville Academy. I always hear people call it the Academy, but that just sounds so uppity to me.

[WiseWeather]

I dont know if this has been posted but…..





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[WXNewton]

The trend is real on the NAM here is both of them, might even show Catawba County some love if this continues!!

[Wolfpack25]

15 minutes ago, ILM2714 said:

 

Actually, we might be in trouble.  If this thing keeps going NW then us down here in SE NC are going to get some of that warm nose, I am sure. 

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

Very cool! I went to Fayetteville Academy. I always hear people call it the Academy, but that just sounds so uppity to me.

Ah you're one of those types.  Just Kidding.  I vividly remember the dreaded snowline between Raleigh and Fayetteville from my childhood as well.  When I moved to Greensboro for college I remember reveling in the marginal events that were snow there and rain back home.  

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

The trend is real on the NAM here is both of them, might even show Catawba County some love if this continues!!

Given the way things are going, I would say there is a good chance the trend if not finished either. The current synoptic set, combined with how juiced the LP appears to be already, I would venture to say this is going to trend NW still. 

[Regan]

Don’t know if anyone caught it, but Ethan Clark tweeted minutes ago about the NAM being discontinued tonight, not running anymore tonight, and fair warning. Anyone know what he was talking about? He deleted it shortly after. 

[MHCWEATHER]

57 minutes ago, Wolfpack25 said:

The bad part was they busted horribly in the opposite direction when they got the call wrong in Jan 2000.  Most of the day they were saying 1 -3" if I remember correctly.  We ended up with 24" that night.  

Ahh, my senior year in college. I was taking a Weather and Climate elective, and my professor started tracking the storm on Monday. By Wednesday he thought it could be a significant storm (4-6”). Meanwhile, Greg remained very conservative until Friday.
 

TBH, no one predicted the LP to stall off the coast and the bands of heavy snow just parked over Raleigh. 24” - IT WAS EPIC 

[WXNewton]

HRW WRF-NSSL Way back west too!

[cbmclean]

So some years ago I thought the whole notion of "the models will change when the storm gets better sampled over land" was ridiculed into oblivion along with the "18Z models are trash" myth.  I was told that the vast majority of model ingestion is from satellite soundings and that RAOBs were of much reduced importance.  Now I'm hearing this idea being resurrected all over the place by people who seem to know what they are talking bout.  So which is it?

[Blue Ridge]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So some years ago I thought the whole notion of "the models will change when the storm gets better sampled over land" was ridiculed into oblivion along with the 18Z models are trash" myth.  I was told that the vast majority of model ingestion is from satellite soundings and that RAOBs were of much reduced importance.  Now I'm hearing this idea being resurrected all over the place by people who seem to know what they are talking bout.  So which is it?

…both? It can be both.

[WiseWeather]

So some years ago I thought the whole notion of "the models will change when the storm gets better sampled over land" was ridiculed into oblivion along with the "18Z models are trash" myth.  I was told that the vast majority of model ingestion is from satellite soundings and that RAOBs were of much reduced importance.  Now I'm hearing this idea being resurrected all over the place by people who seem to know what they are talking bout.  So which is it?

All i know is whatever Brick did today to bring back his storm should never be talked about.




.

[Tony Sisk]

14 minutes ago, Regan said:

Don’t know if anyone caught it, but Ethan Clark tweeted minutes ago about the NAM being discontinued tonight, not running anymore tonight, and fair warning. Anyone know what he was talking about? He deleted it shortly after. 

It’s about go time to just look at radar and out the window. Models aren’t needed.

[Regan]

4 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

It’s about go time to just look at radar and out the window. Models aren’t needed.

He specifically said however, he’s not saying it’s bad… but they won’t be updating it anymore tonight. Then the tweet was gone before I could open it all the way. 

[GaWx]

It’s important that current dewpoints be compared to modeled dewpoints:

Example: KATL actual 9PM DP is 0F

What do models show for 9PM there?

0Z 3K NAM: way up at +14F! It’s 14F too high!

 

0Z NAM 12K: +10F (10F too high)

 

18Z Euro: +3F (only 3F too high…so very close)

18Z GFS is -10F (10F too low)
 

So, 18Z Euro is by far the closest for KATL. You guys might want to check your locations as dewpoint will be very important in determining how long it will be virga. For here, Euro is spot on making it easily closest to reality like at KATL.

[MHCWEATHER]

26 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Hey, which High School did you go to?  I'm from Hope Mills.

We’re probably distantly related. I’m a McLean, and my grandfather’s clan is generally from Gray’s Creek 

[snowinnc]

20 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Ah you're one of those types.  Just Kidding.  I vividly remember the dreaded snowline between Raleigh and Fayetteville from my childhood as well.  When I moved to Greensboro for college I remember reveling in the marginal events that were snow there and rain back home.  

That’s why I refuse to call it the Academy, because there are a lot of those types who went to school there. Greensboro is night and day from Fayetteville and Hope Mills, so that must have been a welcomed change for you!

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

It’s important that current dewpoints be compared to modeled dewpoints:
Example: KATL actual 9PM DP is 0F
What do models show for 9PM there?
0Z 3K NAM: way up at +14F! It’s 14F too high!

 
0Z NAM 12K: +10F (10F too high)
 
18Z Euro: +3F (only 3F too high…so very close)


18Z GFS is -10F (10F too low)
 
So, 18Z Euro is by far the closest for KATL. You guys might want to check your locations as dewpoint will be very important in determining how long it will be virga. For here, Euro is spot on making it easily closest to reality like at KATL.

Good observation.


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[USCG RS]

9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So some years ago I thought the whole notion of "the models will change when the storm gets better sampled over land" was ridiculed into oblivion along with the "18Z models are trash" myth.  I was told that the vast majority of model ingestion is from satellite soundings and that RAOBs were of much reduced importance.  Now I'm hearing this idea being resurrected all over the place by people who seem to know what they are talking bout.  So which is it?

Depends. The impact of additional storm sampling depends on several factors. When a storm traverses a "no-man's land," such as the central regions of Canada, or enters from the Pacific Ocean, additional ground-based observations can significantly improve forecast accuracy. This is particularly true for storms with high potential energy and complex dynamics, where sampling plays a crucial role. This need for enhanced data is why Hurricane Hunters are deployed for both tropical and mid-latitude cyclones. Conversely, when a storm moves through a populated area with an abundance of existing data sources, additional sampling typically has a minimal impact. In essence, computer models rely heavily on data quality—better data inputs lead to better outputs. Therefore, when data is sparse, targeted sampling can greatly enhance forecasts. However, when data coverage is already robust and the storm's behavior is less volatile, additional sampling tends to yield diminishing returns.

[PackGrad05]

FWIW, the 00Z HRRR was about 50-75 miles west with the edge than 18Z