1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[thekidcurtis]

49 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

A tradition like no other.
 

Mike Maze says “**** your snow.” 

I don't wanna harp on this but it seems like whenever the area DOES get the potential for winter weather, there's some serious shade being thrown at WRAL. Don't get me wrong, I hate seeing it, but often they're toe to toe with the other locals (sometimes even higher). Just this storm, comparing the 3 local majors (and referencing Wake for this post and this storm):

ABC11: <1"
CBS 17: Trace - 1"
WRAL: <1"

I'm guessing that's just because we (myself included) have a dedicated station they trust in WRAL, but they're not shooting off-the-wall numbers.

#CarryOn
 

[bankdawg]

No call maps from anyone on the board?

[wncsnow]

NAM and FV3 are running. The FV3 looks to be even more north this run. 

[BooneWX]

Radar returns are lighting up in TX, LA and even up to Oklahoma and Arkansas. The significance? Not a single model is close to showing what’s currently happening in real time. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

I don't wanna harp on this but it seems like whenever the area DOES get the potential for winter weather, there's some serious shade being thrown at WRAL. Don't get me wrong, I hate seeing it, but often they're toe to toe with the other locals (sometimes even higher). Just this storm, comparing the 3 local majors (and referencing Wake for this post and this storm:
ABC11: CBS 17: Trace - 1"
WRAL: I'm guessing that's just because we (myself included) have a dedicated station they trust in WRAL, but they're not shooting off-the-wall numbers.
#CarryOn
 

WRAL has always been the top dog in the Triangle . Greg was the GOAT. I will say that Big Weather has grown on me. He nailed the January 2022 storm early and had balls.


.

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

NAM and FV3 are running. The FV3 looks to be even more north this run. 

Euro AI damn near gives you and I an inch based on ratios 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Mike maze just posted the euro ensembles increased.


.

Yep: this is 10:1…so higher amounts possible northern portion

 

[Blue Ridge]

I think WRAL bears the brunt of the memeing because they long had the TV met synonymous with Raleigh (Fishel) and have long been a market leader. 
 

The “Mike Maze says bleep your snow” thing is truly a joke. I enjoy Mike and the team at WRAL, and I don’t envy the job of any public facing met.
 

My life also doesn’t hinge on each forecast update, which probably helps.

[kvegas-wx]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Radar returns are lighting up in TX, LA and even up to Oklahoma and Arkansas. The significance? Not a single model is close to showing what’s currently happening in real time. 

So you're saying Carolina Crusher part deux is possible?  Can't wait for my 14" of powder.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Euro AI

https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/1881519036439351514?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

[Shack]

Widespread, but light,  Virga Snow (I'm supposing) to our west on radar right now. I looked around and don't see any reporting stations reporting that this is making it to the ground, but this radar image wasn't progged on any of the Hi-res models for this time period, was it? Or, can someone chime in that knows if the models account for virga in their renderings.

 

[Met1985]

Looks like wnc will jack with the NW trend. Some things never change. 

[wncsnow]

Shame we are running out of time for NW shifts. 

[Met1985]

In all seriousness I think we do see continued adjustments even into tomorrow.  This is another complex system with an Arctic outbreak.  

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, Shack said:

Widespread, but light,  Virga Snow (I'm supposing) to our west on radar right now. I looked around and don't see any reporting stations reporting that this is making it to the ground, but this radar image wasn't progged on any of the Hi-res models for this time period, was it? Or, can someone chime in that knows if the models account for virga in their renderings.

 

Mping begs to differ on this being virga

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Shame we are running out of time for NW shifts. 

We can still make it lol.

[wake4est]

Oh my the NaM is doing nam things

[Shack]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Mping begs to differ on this being virga

Good to hear.  Was really curious about the Arkansas/ North Louisiana returns.  I was hoping that moisture transport was more north and maybe a little stronger than modeled. 

[Orange county]

1 minute ago, wake4est said:

Oh my the NaM is doing nam things

So Garner still has a chance?....

[Thrasher Fan]

What was that NAM run?! Haha.....

[VABILLUPS1]

[BooneWX]

Someone get @Brick Tamland

[NorthHillsWx]

FV3 and NAM gonna be good runs for central NC

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Mping begs to differ on this being virga

0Z NAM a good bit further N!

[HKY_WX]

20 minutes ago, bankdawg said:

No call maps from anyone on the board?

I'll post one later tonight 

[wake4est]

[wncsnow]

Hi Res NAM 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, Shack said:

Widespread, but light,  Virga Snow (I'm supposing) to our west on radar right now. I looked around and don't see any reporting stations reporting that this is making it to the ground, but this radar image wasn't progged on any of the Hi-res models for this time period, was it? Or, can someone chime in that knows if the models account for virga in their renderings.

 

Compare that to 0Z NAM radar as of 9PM:

And 10PM radar as if 10PM:

p

[ILM2714]

 

[MDsnowPRO]

26 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Radar returns are lighting up in TX, LA and even up to Oklahoma and Arkansas. The significance? Not a single model is close to showing what’s currently happening in real time. 

I left Kansas/Oklahoma boarder returning from a trip around 3pm est. What was forecasted as a coating and light snow was in reality moderate snow and 1.5-2” when I left. The roads hadn’t been treated and were a nightmare of wrecks. Caught the DOT off gaurd for sure and was over performing.