1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[BornAgain13]

[Orange county]

8 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

WRAL playing this down on the evening report

Well the last BIG DOG we got they missed it 6 hours out

[Silver Meteor]

Bet this wasn't on anyone's bingo card to ever be seen from a weather office discussion... 

From Brownsville, Texas: 

Surf will be highest overnight into
tomorrow morning as we experience gale forced winds offshore. Due to
cold sea surface temperatures, there is high potential for mass sea
turtle cold stunning in the area as well. Motorists crossing coastal
bridges will need to watch for pelicans.

[BornAgain13]

Just now, Silver Meteor said:

Bet this wasn't on anyone's bingo card to ever be seen from a weather office discussion... 

From Brownsville, Texas: 

Surf will be highest overnight into
tomorrow morning as we experience gale forced winds offshore. Due to
cold sea surface temperatures, there is high potential for mass sea
turtle cold stunning in the area as well. Motorists crossing coastal
bridges will need to watch for pelicans.

Frozen Pelicans?

[gwlee7]

Probably gonna issue a falling iguanas warning fpr Florida as well.  

[GaWx]

Coldest Euro weekly for SE US for any week I’ve ever seen. This is for today through Sunday (1/20-26): coldest is 18-19F BN in darkest shade on Gulf coast meaning they’re having normals for St. Louis near 32! Further N around ATL-RDU, they’ll be near Chicago normals! 

 

The upcoming storm will be, oddly enough, when the stratospheric polar vortex strength is near record highs, near twice the normal strength in terms of zonal winds at 60N! 

[NorthHillsWx]

Not going to lie, watching the Euro join the trend with everything else is giving me hope. This is the first time we’ve had consensus on a trend across suites. When the euro headfaked everyone a couple days ago everything else was going opposite direction.

One thing that seems locked in is New Orleans getting historic snowfall amounts. I have family in Lafayette and they are beyond excited. If we get snow it’ll make me much more happy to cheer for the gulf coast, lol

[Brick Tamland]

19 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

WRAL playing this down on the evening report

They play down pretty much everything unless it's 100% certainty 24 hours out something is going to happen.

[neatlburbwthrguy]

If ATL does get a couple hours of light snow tomorrow are we thinking it would be between noon-3pm est?

[gallopinggertie]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Not going to lie, watching the Euro join the trend with everything else is giving me hope. This is the first time we’ve had consensus on a trend across suites. When the euro headfaked everyone a couple days ago everything else was going opposite direction.

One thing that seems locked in is New Orleans getting historic snowfall amounts. I have family in Lafayette and they are beyond excited. If we get snow it’ll make me much more happy to cheer for the gulf coast, lol

And seems pretty certain Houston will also get historic snowfall, at least the eastern half of the city. 

[snowinnc]

27 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

WRAL playing this down on the evening report

Have they ever not played it down? They won’t be positive about it until there are already flakes falling.

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

If ATL does get a couple hours of light snow tomorrow are we thinking it would be between noon-3pm est?

If it comes in early, it could start as early as ~2 hours before this map, which is for the hour 3-4PM. So, say as early as ~1PM. Models have been speeding up the start and precip often starts a couple of hours earlier than models suggest:

[NCSU_Pi]

30 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Probably gonna issue a falling iguanas warning fpr Florida as well.  

Incoming alligator-snouts-through-ice pictures from my hometown, as well.

[Bevo]

Here's hoping I don't have to eat anything gross LOL.

[Blue Ridge]

50 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

WRAL playing this down on the evening report

A tradition like no other.
 

Mike Maze says “**** your snow.” 

[senc30]

Here in Jacksonville, my weather app said 0" this morning. At noon it said 1-3" and now says 3-5". I figure tomorrow it will say high of 85 with a hurricane coming. 

[HKY_WX]

GFS Wed lows in the deep south. Snowcover. Prob overdone but crazy 

[Brick Tamland]

19 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

A tradition like no other.
 

Mike Maze says “**** your snow.” 

It really started after they busted predicting a big storm in December 2000 and we ended up getting nothing. That's the one Greg Fishel said if we didn't get a certain amount he would stand in the fountain at the studio and play his tuba. At least he did it. But ever since then they have always gone low no matter what and adjusted higher if needed right before the snow fell or after it was already falling.

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Looks like new 00z HRRR has precip inching ever so close to ATL for a few hours, definitely further N than last run.  Going to be a close call...

[Mowfishin]

Will this NW Trend lead to more mixing along the immediate coast?  I’m in Mcclellanville sc and trying to manage my expectations 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

It really started after they busted predicting a big storm in December 2000 and we ended up getting nothing. That's the one Greg Fishel said if we didn't get a certain amount he would stand in the fountain at the studio and play his tuba. At least he did it. But ever since then they have always gone low no matter what and adjusted higher if needed right before the snow fell or after it was already falling.

I thought that was when Greg saw an upcoming pattern that he guaranteed at least 1”. I do remember that system that never got inland enough. They were calling for 8” in Charlotte and not a single flake. Totally blown forecast.


.

[Wolfpack25]

8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

It really started after they busted predicting a big storm in December 2000 and we ended up getting nothing. That's the one Greg Fishel said if we didn't get a certain amount he would stand in the fountain at the studio and play his tuba. At least he did it. But ever since then they have always gone low no matter what and adjusted higher if needed right before the snow fell or after it was already falling.

The bad part was they busted horribly in the opposite direction when they got the call wrong in Jan 2000.  Most of the day they were saying 1 -3" if I remember correctly.  We ended up with 24" that night.  

[PackGrad05]

Mike maze just posted the euro ensembles increased.


.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

The bad part was they busted horribly in the opposite direction when they got the call wrong in Jan 2000.  Most of the day they were saying 1 -3" if I remember correctly.  We ended up with 24" that night.  

I remember that night well. Seeing precipitation moving inland around a well organized center just off of Wilmington was impressive. It was like a snow hurricane.


.

[wxdawg10]

4 minutes ago, Wolfpack25 said:

The bad part was they busted horribly in the opposite direction when they got the call wrong in Jan 2000.  Most of the day they were saying 1 -3" if I remember correctly.  We ended up with 24" that night.  

WRAL gets a lot of blame for this storm..but were there any other outlets locally or nationally calling for more than a couple of inches around central NC?  i don't remember.  if so then i think WRAL can be let off the hook a bit due to a collective meteorological screw up

[Regan]

[franklin NCwx]

Is this the WRAL thread?

[Regan]

6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Mike maze just posted the euro ensembles increased.


.

Yeah Raleigh 10% chance for 1in per his post. 

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Eric copying me...
On a serious note - it is nice to see that he thinks this is a potential real trend. 

[USCG RS]

8 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

WRAL gets a lot of blame for this storm..but were there any other outlets locally or nationally calling for more than a couple of inches around central NC?  i don't remember.  if so then i think WRAL can be let off the hook a bit due to a collective meteorological screw up

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/triangle-sandhills/weather/2024/01/24/24-years-since-record-snow-storm-for-central-nc