1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[Seminole]

20 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

Question: Wouldn't this current trend open up the flow of moisture from the GOM vs suppressing it with a flatter front?  

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, accountingdawg2012 said:

As someone who lives in Albany it’s gonna be disastrous if we get 3 inches of snow. Place will probably be shut down for 3-4 days with the temps re-freezing every evening. 

3” would be near Albany alltime record!

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

MAYBE we gave up just a little early….

DON'T GET SUCKED BACK IN!! They're just toying with us.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, cbmclean said:

DON'T GET SUCKED BACK IN!! They're just toying with us.

Honestly I may log off again bc since I left pretty much everything trended this direction 

[btownheel]

Same here! We were forecast to be a high of 32 but we are currently knocking on 40!

It’s that much of a delta from here to there? We didn’t get past 31 here in Elon…


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[WinstonSalemArlington]

17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS gonna push the precip way NW from previous runs I believe 

To the Triad!

[gamecockinupstateSC]

[BornAgain13]

If that NS continues to dig to the SW, that's a IF... then it will continue to blossom more moisture to the NW

[btownheel]

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[NorthHillsWx]

GFS gets 0.05-0.10” all the way to the NW triad this run. Keep in mind 0.15” probably gets you an inch in these temps. Really not a huge adjustment needed to get impactful snows across the piedmont if these trends continue 

[StantonParkHoya]

lol it snows in Boone this run

[GaWx]

This is beautiful textbook split flow (from 18Z GFS), the pattern that has given the SE some of its biggest winter storms: 

 N stream has WNW H5 flow to our north in the OH valley bringing the Siberian cold while moist WSW H5 flow is over us and to our south bringing plentiful moisture over the low level cold:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

lol it snows in Boone this run

I love the GFS so very much. The definition of consistency 

[BornAgain13]

How far NW can that moisture get? This is intriguing!

[lilj4425]

10 minutes ago, gamecockinupstateSC said:

Don’t do this to me. I had given up and cliff dived. 

[btownheel]

This is beautiful textbook split flow (from 18Z GFS), the pattern that has given the SE some of its biggest winter storms: 
 N stream has WNW H5 flow to our north in the OH valley bringing the Siberian cold while moist WSW H5 flow is over us and to our south bringing plentiful moisture over the low level cold:

 

Just need the L to dig deep enough that it can bomb a bit and fire up the precip shield.

Long shot, but not *fully* dead.


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[BornAgain13]

@NorthHillsWxplease log off... lol

[HKY_WX]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

lol it snows in Boone this run

If I fart, it snows in boone

[WiseWeather]

The gulf moisture looks like its pushing up on the shortwave more than modeled… fwiw


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[Regan]

I love the shifts, but I keep having to remind myself about the dry air… it’s the buzzkill right now.  Still better changes inland at seeing “something”. 

[btownheel]

I love the shifts, but I keep having to remind myself about the dry air… it’s the buzzkill right now.  Still better changes inland at seeing “something”. 

It needs to dig deeper and juice significantly to get it done. Long shot…


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[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

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[WiseWeather]

.

OH MY GAWD ITS THE UNDERTAKER


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[WXNewton]

39 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Don’t do this to me. I had given up and cliff dived. 

Throw out your parachute!

[dsaur]

36 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

If I fart, it snows in boone

Eat some beans and spread your magic, lol.  27.6 now. Not a bad drop with the sun out.

[waronxmas]

50 minutes ago, gamecockinupstateSC said:

If this verifies, expect ATL to be an absolute mess tomorrow morning. Everyone is under the impression that this storm is going to be a nothing burger in the city and impact middle GA more. Now where have I heard that before…

Good thing I work remote now. 

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Throw out your parachute!

 

42 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Don’t do this to me. I had given up and cliff dived. 

I am pretty good at SAR (Search and Rescue)...

1 minute ago, waronxmas said:

If this verifies, expect ATL to be an absolute mess tomorrow morning. Everyone is under the impression that this storm is going to be a nothing burger in the city and impact middle GA more. Now where have I heard that before…

Good thing I work remote now. 

This has to really dig, to provide a good hard hit for C GA North and into the Upstate of SC and W NC. That withstanding, it will be a good idea to watch the latent heat release of the storms in the Gulf overnight and into tomorrow morning. This will give a good idea of if this storm is really digging or not. Kind of like the JAX Rule for the Northeastern United States. If the storms are really firing, the latent heat release will help to pump the heights further NW and I would then expect that areas N and W of S GA and E NC and SC to be in the game. 

[PennyForYourThoughts]

Bet nobody had the words "blizzard conditions" on their bingo card for Mobile, Alabama.  From NWS Mobile. 

 

 sub-1020mb surface low in the Gulf which will promote strong winds
and wind gusts, particularly nearer the coast. While we aren`t
anticipating true blizzard conditions (criteria defined as frequent
gusts in excess of 35mph, visibility below a quarter mile, and
blowing snow all for 3 consecutive hours), we can`t rule out
temporary near blizzard conditions along the coast where at least
moderate snowfall and frequent gusts to 30mph can be expected
reducing visibility below a half mile at times

 

 

[snowinnc]

This board is crazy, but I love it! Did us RDU folks give up too early or should we go back to getting ready for the spring? I’m lost and don’t know what to do.