1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[SnowGoose69]

28 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Boy, dew points are super low way to the south in the low single digits, I think that might cut down on accumulations, not sure how well the models handle that.

The soundings from the 12Z NAM at 18Z tomorrow near your location to me are not ones that are going to make it that hard for snow to reach the ground.  At 18Z its saturated above 6K and mostly the 3-5K layer is the driest, but not THAT dry.   I've seen much worse soundings which scream VIRGA than that

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 18Z 12km NAM now has snow into ATL for maybe 2 hours.  It did a miserable job last storm though and has not been consistent on this one really to this point

Like the 12Z it has mainly sleet and ZR here and in much of SE GA.

 Also, 12Z and now 18Z even more is bringing start of virga earlier.

[Justicebork]

RDU east will like the 18z NAM

[KrummWx]

Does anyone know the last time ECP recorded measurable snow?

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

RDU east will like the 18z NAM

NAM to RDU folks “You will take your flurries and you will like them!” 
 

Pretty big jump on most guidance. Don’t think this gets the triangle back into the game but it might be good for eastern NC peeps. 

[NorthHillsWx]

39 minutes ago, Wolfpack25 said:

I don't know if this means anything but it is about 4 or 5 degrees warmer here in SE NC today then was forecast yesterday.  

Same here! We were forecast to be a high of 32 but we are currently knocking on 40!

[gamecockinupstateSC]

NW trend on GFS and Euro AI

[Stebaney]

I’ve been on this forum for a long time (the 25th will make 14 years) and rarely post, but  it seems this place has almost become a dumpster fire of whining, complaining, and just plain childishness. In a storm thread in years past I was able to learn, whether it actually snowed or not, and got to read a lot of good analysis. All the ridiculous, off-topic comments used to be relegated to a dedicated banter thread and there was actual moderation. It’s like the mods and admin just gave up. Ok, got that off my chest, and that’ll do it for my approximately two posts per year. Maybe next year professionalism will become the norm again. 

I’ve been here since 2010 and noticed the same. I lurk, only ask questions when I am completely confused. I actually don’t mind banter and occasional whining (Knightdale is always in a hole so I silently cry) but people seem to be mean and catty more than usual.

[VABILLUPS1]

[Kraychav]

52 minutes ago, Wolfpack25 said:

I don't know if this means anything but it is about 4 or 5 degrees warmer here in SE NC today then was forecast yesterday.  

I’m in SENC as well. Forecast was 37, and I’m at 40 now.

[USCG RS]

20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

NAM to RDU folks “You will take your flurries and you will like them!” 
 

Pretty big jump on most guidance. Don’t think this gets the triangle back into the game but it might be good for eastern NC peeps. 

That is... and it is simply based on orientation. Given that, I would say that a jump NW is still quite possible. I would not count C NC, C SC and parts of the Upstate or Triangle out quite yet. 

[Brick Tamland]

Maybe if the NW trend on the NAM, Euro and GFS is correct I might get to seem some snow fall at least.

[KChuck]

36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Same here! We were forecast to be a high of 32 but we are currently knocking on 40!

Must be a trend then. Went out shopping with the wife in Kville this am and she remarked her iphone temperature forecast was off. Actual temp was quite a few degrees above forecast. 

[accountingdawg2012]

1 hour ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Wow, Albany GA is a great spot to be for this.   They are locked in to a great snow.  Unbelievable.

As someone who lives in Albany it’s gonna be disastrous if we get 3 inches of snow. Place will probably be shut down for 3-4 days with the temps re-freezing every evening. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

.4 qpf has yielded decent show in the Triad this season, so don’t despair Triangle

[dsaur]

1 hour ago, suzook said:

Seems a little conservative, thinking a little more on totals on the south side of the map. Maybe they are thinking some mixing.

Right now, I think that 1- 2 inch band makes it to Hampton, but that's right now, lol.

[franklin NCwx]

31 minutes ago, Kraychav said:

I’m in SENC as well. Forecast was 37, and I’m at 40 now.

Colder than forecasted here 

[Justicebork]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[dsaur]

51 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Same here! We were forecast to be a high of 32 but we are currently knocking on 40!

My high was 32.1, now down to 30.3

[NorthHillsWx]

26 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Maybe if the NW trend on the NAM, Euro and GFS is correct I might get to seem some snow fall at least.

ICON too. Not NW but more neutral 

[NorthHillsWx]

I kinda laid off models for a little while but looking at this afternoons data I’d feel much better about accumulations in eastern NC than yesterday! Very positive trends there

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS gonna push the precip way NW from previous runs I believe 

[CaryWx]

yes

[Justicebork]

[NorthHillsWx]

MAYBE we gave up just a little early….

[wncsnow]

Flurries seem likely 77 east

[BornAgain13]

And here it comes lol...

[BornAgain13]

How far can it go!

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

MAYBE we gave up just a little early….

A 1/29/2014 last minute repeat?