1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[USCG RS]

55 minutes ago, wxslug said:

I’ve been on this forum for a long time (the 25th will make 14 years) and rarely post, but  it seems this place has almost become a dumpster fire of whining, complaining, and just plain childishness. In a storm thread in years past I was able to learn, whether it actually snowed or not, and got to read a lot of good analysis. All the ridiculous, off-topic comments used to be relegated to a dedicated banter thread and there was actual moderation. It’s like the mods and admin just gave up. Ok, got that off my chest, and that’ll do it for my approximately two posts per year. Maybe next year professionalism will become the norm again. 

 

39 minutes ago, NYweatherguy said:

Totally agree with you on this. I also have been around for years and remain mostly a lurker (I don't have the ability to participate intelligently) but this board has definitely gone down hill with all the mocking and childish arguments. It's a shame. 

I think it has just been a hard few years for a lot of folks, and the weather has also been rather, well, adding to frustration in various aspects. There are some very good posters on here, and on the other forums, and the large storms do bring them out. 

[dsaur]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z CMC joins NAM, Icon, and GFS with NW trend and wetter! This seems similar to the late Jan of 2014 sudden late NW trend that lead to ATL and other areas into well inland SC/NC getting huge impact. I‘m not saying big impact to ATL and those other well inland areas yet. But keep watching!

The n/w shift has  been real in many cases.  I've gone from 15 plus to half an inch, and points in between, and I'm far from making a call, lol.  But what falls will stick...none wasted, so there's that.  I'm sure pulling for you to get sn/ip.  Sleet, sleet, sleet...wishes do come true...listen to Jimny, Larry. Well, before the stars get covered...so be quick.

[SnowGoose69]

The GRAF has come back south somewhat now, showing less wacky totals for ATL than it had been.  I think dsaur/deltapilot/suzook are sitting in a way better spot than ATL downtown or even the airport.  could see a case where they see 1-1.5 inches if this bumps somewhat north and downtown ATL sees flurries or nothing.  In SC I think I'd pick 30-40 miles NW of CHS for prime spot.  CHS obviously risk of sleet.

[USCG RS]

2 hours ago, DeltaPilot said:

Ill bet ya we get 1/4-1/2 inch suzook.  What would you like to wager?    Im just NE of downtown Senoia off Rockaway

What type of aircraft do you pilot? 

2 hours ago, gamecockinupstateSC said:

The orientation of the tilt change is evident on the GFS. 

That is a significant difference from a small change in the orientation. Hi Res Models should begin to pick up on this in the next 12 or so hours if true. I do wonder if the orientation, extent of the Artic HP/front is being ingested. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro: fairly similar to 6Z; so the only major 12Z model without a notable NW/wetter trend though it did trend slightly NW vs 6Z in NC

The Euro can be rather slow in changing at times. It can be very consistent, but like the GFS, also consistently wrong. 

[bankdawg]

15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GRAF has come back south somewhat now, showing less wacky totals for ATL than it had been.  I think dsaur/deltapilot/suzook are sitting in a way better spot than ATL downtown or even the airport.  could see a case where they see 1-1.5 inches if this bumps somewhat north and downtown ATL sees flurries or nothing.  In SC I think I'd pick 30-40 miles NW of CHS for prime spot.  CHS obviously risk of sleet.

you doing a call map?

[DeltaPilot]

IM a 757/767 Captain in ATL. Also own a forked tail Dr killer (V-tail Beechcraft Bonanza for the non aviation types) based at KFFC 

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

IM a 757/767 Captain in ATL. Also own a forked tail Dr killer (V-tail Beechcraft Bonanza for the non aviation types) based at KFFC 

Apologies if this should be banter - but the 757 has always been one of my favorite aircraft. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Apologies if this should be banter - but the 757 has always been one of my favorite aircraft. 

I think it is for many.  Its undoubtedly a very overpowered aircraft but I've not heard many pilots say they don't like it over the years.

[DeltaPilot]

2 hours ago, suzook said:

I'll wager a beer at pearl and pine. What's the over under? Btw, I'm right off 16 across from draft room.

Well, I think you said we get some "mood flakes". I win if its over 1/2" and you win if its less???? Sounds good on the Beer.  Maybe take the average of NWS and our locations?? And I DO know how to measure.

[neatlburbwthrguy]

26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GRAF has come back south somewhat now, showing less wacky totals for ATL than it had been.  I think dsaur/deltapilot/suzook are sitting in a way better spot than ATL downtown or even the airport.  could see a case where they see 1-1.5 inches if this bumps somewhat north and downtown ATL sees flurries or nothing.  In SC I think I'd pick 30-40 miles NW of CHS for prime spot.  CHS obviously risk of sleet.

I am considering a snow chase tomorrow heading south out of ATL.  Do you think anywhere in south central Georgia sees 4inches+ of snow?

[suzook]

3 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

Well, I think you said we get some "mood flakes". I win if its over 1/2" and you win if its less???? Sounds good on the Beer.  Maybe take the average of NWS and our locations?? And I DO know how to measure.

Sounds good. I think I trust your measurements over nws spotters.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

I am considering a snow chase tomorrow heading south out of ATL.  Do you think anywhere in south central Georgia sees 4inches+ of snow?

I would go to somewhere in that Perry-Cordele corridor looking at the map down I-75.  I think in that area you could see it or somewhere nearby 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I would go to somewhere in that Perry-Cordele corridor looking at the map down I-75.  I think in that area you could see it or somewhere nearby 

thanks, was thinking that same area.  would prefer macon as I have family there, but I think they might be too far north for anything substantial

[metalicwx367]

Under a Winter Storm Warning for here in Waycross. 

 

[strongwxnc]

Under a Winter Storm Warning for here in Waycross. 
 

Good luck!!


.

[suzook]

Seems a little conservative, thinking a little more on totals on the south side of the map. Maybe they are thinking some mixing.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, suzook said:

Seems a little conservative, thinking a little more on totals on the south side of the map. Maybe they are thinking some mixing.

Agreed.  I'm also confused with the WWA for the northern counties yet the verbiage in the WWA says 1-2 inches, I believe in the south region of the NWS 2 inches is supposed to be a Winter Storm Warning.

[neatlburbwthrguy]

The new HRRR looks good for Macon south in Georgia.  Unless it's somehow off by 80-100 miles, ATL may strikeout with this one sadly.  Sucks to have temps in line for a nice storm, and be so close, yet sooo far away.

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said:

Under a Winter Storm Warning for here in Waycross. 

 

Just after JAX, CHS did the same:

 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC   234 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...    

* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO INCHES.  

  * WHERE...IN GEORGIA, BULLOCH, CANDLER, EFFINGHAM, EVANS, JENKINS,   SCREVEN, AND TATTNALL COUNTIES. IN SOUTH CAROLINA, ALLENDALE, BEAUFORT, CHARLESTON, COASTAL COLLETON, COASTAL JASPER, DORCHESTER, HAMPTON, INLAND BERKELEY, INLAND COLLETON, INLAND JASPER, AND TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTIES.  

  * WHEN...FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY.

—————————

* WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET   ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.    

 * WHERE...COASTAL BRYAN, COASTAL CHATHAM, COASTAL LIBERTY, COASTAL   MCINTOSH, INLAND BRYAN, INLAND CHATHAM, INLAND LIBERTY, INLAND   MCINTOSH, AND LONG COUNTIES.

* WHEN...FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY.

 

[Cheeznado]

15Z SREF has no significant north shift, but does increase probs in central/south GA

[neatlburbwthrguy]

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

15Z SREF has no significant north shift, but does increase probs in central/south GA

can you post this map by chance?  i cant find it

[Cheeznado]

Boy, dew points are super low way to the south in the low single digits, I think that might cut down on accumulations, not sure how well the models handle that.

[Cheeznado]

4 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

can you post this map by chance?  i cant find it

 

[Seminole]

You do not see this too often in Florida. The scale of the impacted areas is what really sticks out to me.  

 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Wow, Albany GA is a great spot to be for this.   They are locked in to a great snow.  Unbelievable.

[Wolfpack25]

I don't know if this means anything but it is about 4 or 5 degrees warmer here in SE NC today then was forecast yesterday.  

[btownheel]

Personally done lusting after this and channeling good vibes to Gulf Coast folks where this is like a once every decade plus opp. Enjoy it guys!!!


.
Hate wasting this cold but it breaks how it breaks.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Wolfpack25 said:

I don't know if this means anything but it is about 4 or 5 degrees warmer here in SE NC today then was forecast yesterday.  

Regarding 12Z runs as of 3PM, NAM and CMC were a couple of degrees too cold at KATL but Icon, GFS, and Euro were within 1F fwiw.

[franklin NCwx]

46 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said:

Under a Winter Storm Warning for here in Waycross. 

 

Enjoy man!

[SnowGoose69]

31 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

15Z SREF has no significant north shift, but does increase probs in central/south GA

The 18Z 12km NAM now has snow into ATL for maybe 2 hours.  It did a miserable job last storm though and has not been consistent on this one really to this point