1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[BooneWX]

Just now, GunBlade said:

Another run or two of trends like this and everyone will be running back for more model run torture. This is the free goofy snow map which isn’t accurate but shows the growing precip field across the area. 

Just insane to see the panhandle with near foot totals

[DeltaPilot]

Ill bet ya we get 1/4-1/2 inch suzook.  What would you like to wager?    Im just NE of downtown Senoia off Rockaway

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Another run or two of trends like this and everyone will be running back for more model run torture. This is the free goofy snow map which isn’t accurate but shows the growing precip field across the area. 

Yeah, these TT snow maps are way overdone on the SE side due to counting all wintry as snow. But you can see the snowier/NW trend. The qpf also shows the significant wetter/NW trend! So, at 12Z, NAM, Icon, and GFS further NW. This is similar to the last day or two strong NW trend for late Jan 2014!

6Z GFS

 

12Z GFS

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Another run or two of trends like this and everyone will be running back for more model run torture. This is the free goofy snow map which isn’t accurate but shows the growing precip field across the area. 

Don't think you'll see a big change really, this is simply the models catching onto what the Euro has been showing, the WAA finger of snow over GA/SC/AL was being badly underdone but I'd expect it does not climb much further north than this.

[olafminesaw]

The clear trends towards a more neutral trough. Probably too late for Raleigh to get into the 1"+ zone, but could be a good storm from Fayetteville to Wilmington 

[DeltaPilot]

Ill take one more north tick here.  Whatever falls is going to immediately accumulate here for once.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Starting to wonder if anyone in the southeast will see any snow accumulations, lol

The coastal areas of LA and MS still look good.

[GaWx]

12Z CMC joins NAM, Icon, and GFS with NW trend and wetter! This seems similar to the late Jan of 2014 sudden late NW trend that lead to ATL and other areas into well inland SC/NC getting huge impact. I‘m not saying big impact to ATL and those other well inland areas yet. But keep watching!

[Cheeznado]

Big issue here is the extremely dry airmass. The precip that some models show may be overdone due to a lot of the precip being virga, hard to saturate the column when you are not int he area with the best dynamics. Still think a dusting here is the best we can expect.

[GaWx]

Just now, Cheeznado said:

Big issue here is the extremely dry airmass. The precip that some models show may be overdone due to a lot of the precip being virga, hard to saturate the column when you are not int he area with the best dynamics. Still think a dusting here is the best we can expect.

Agreed! But you can’t deny the NW trends/wetter.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The coastal areas of LA and MS still look good.

The spots I'd most want to be in are probably a BTR-Hattiesburg to maybe 40 miles south of MGM-CSG-MCN corridor...south of that might be mixing

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS run was interesting. Whole system well NW and more of a neutral tilt 

[GaWx]

 Large NW trend on just about everything at 12Z! I’m surprised it isn’t more active in here.

[gamecockinupstateSC]

The orientation of the tilt change is evident on the GFS. 

[Thrasher Fan]

29 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

Ill bet ya we get 1/4-1/2 inch suzook.  What would you like to wager?    Im just NE of downtown Senoia off Rockaway

Im off Robinson so I'll take .1-.2 less than you. Haha!

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS 10:1, though not dramatically so, is consistent with the 12Z model consensus of a snowier/NW trend for many areas vs 6Z.

6Z:

 

12Z:

[suzook]

44 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

Ill bet ya we get 1/4-1/2 inch suzook.  What would you like to wager?    Im just NE of downtown Senoia off Rockaway

I'll wager a beer at pearl and pine. What's the over under? Btw, I'm right off 16 across from draft room.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET starting off better too with a NW/snowier trend since 18Z run yesterday.

[suzook]

I wouldn't put too much faith in the GFS at this point.

[GaWx]

The Euro has been trending drier for awhile as it had been near the wettest and was correcting toward the others. Will that drying continue with the 12Z or will it now stop or maybe even reverse the drying considering the 12Z model consensus? We’ll know fairly soon.

[yotaman]

We went from 5-8 to 1-3 to less than 1 and now back up to 1-3. Hopefully the gains continue.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: fairly similar to 6Z; so the only major 12Z model without a notable NW/wetter trend though it did trend slightly NW vs 6Z in NC

[neatlburbwthrguy]

when does the next HRRR run?

 

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro:

Kuchera snow:

 

Sleet:

ZR:

qpf: 12Z

 

qpf 6Z as comparison showing slight NW trend at 12Z, mainly in NC

[tarheelwx]

To me, it looks like a clear move back to the NW.  Not a huge jump, but a clear NW move.

TW

[CaryWx]

For NC nice jump NW

[wxslug]

I’ve been on this forum for a long time (the 25th will make 14 years) and rarely post, but  it seems this place has almost become a dumpster fire of whining, complaining, and just plain childishness. In a storm thread in years past I was able to learn, whether it actually snowed or not, and got to read a lot of good analysis. All the ridiculous, off-topic comments used to be relegated to a dedicated banter thread and there was actual moderation. It’s like the mods and admin just gave up. Ok, got that off my chest, and that’ll do it for my approximately two posts per year. Maybe next year professionalism will become the norm again. 

[NYweatherguy]

14 minutes ago, wxslug said:

I’ve been on this forum for a long time (the 25th will make 14 years) and rarely post, but  it seems this place has almost become a dumpster fire of whining, complaining, and just plain childishness. In a storm thread in years past I was able to learn, whether it actually snowed or not, and got to read a lot of good analysis. All the ridiculous, off-topic comments used to be relegated to a dedicated banter thread and there was actual moderation. It’s like the mods and admin just gave up. Ok, got that off my chest, and that’ll do it for my approximately two posts per year. Maybe next year professionalism will become the norm again. 

Totally agree with you on this. I also have been around for years and remain mostly a lurker (I don't have the ability to participate intelligently) but this board has definitely gone down hill with all the mocking and childish arguments. It's a shame. 

[metalicwx367]

28 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

when does the next HRRR run?

 

 

17Z HRRR is running rn. The 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z are the ones that go out to 48 hours. 18Z should be running around 3PM EST.

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, wxslug said:

I’ve been on this forum for a long time (the 25th will make 14 years) and rarely post, but  it seems this place has almost become a dumpster fire of whining, complaining, and just plain childishness. In a storm thread in years past I was able to learn, whether it actually snowed or not, and got to read a lot of good analysis. All the ridiculous, off-topic comments used to be relegated to a dedicated banter thread and there was actual moderation. It’s like the mods and admin just gave up. Ok, got that off my chest, and that’ll do it for my approximately two posts per year. Maybe next year professionalism will become the norm again. 

 

3 minutes ago, NYweatherguy said:

Totally agree with you on this. I also have been around for years and remain mostly a lurker (I don't have the ability to participate intelligently) but this board has definitely gone down hill with all the mocking and childish arguments. It's a shame. 

 Would y’all and others mind posting this kind of thing in banter? Otherwise it will just add clutter to this storm thread. TIA