1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[gallopinggertie]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z ICON continues the general trend of this model moistening up in NW FL as well as in the GA/SC coastal areas:

0Z Icon qpf

 

0Z Icon 10:1 snow

 

Icon snow from 24 hours ago:

Panama City goes from nothing to 4-5”…

[USCG RS]

2 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Wrong!

Suppression, likely leading to much less stream interaction would be the problem for much of the Carolinas being dry and cold... no? 

41 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Probably have a better chance at getting a hurricane now than snow.

Don't tempt... Just dont tempt. 

35 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

It’s just crazy isn’t it? Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes... The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

[goldman75]

Eh, it’s the gfs at this short range but it’s trying to throw some precip further inland into the Carolinas 

[PackGrad05]

Watch euro and EPS come back west.

[gallopinggertie]

NWS has issued winter storm watches for the Big Bend and even Gainesville! 

[gamecockinupstateSC]

[cbmclean]

GFS and ICON both show Teeny-Tiny NW trends, but only in the N extent of the moisture, very little change in track.  At this point it is far too little, too late. for inland folks in the Carolinas.

[GaWx]

 What happened to the 0Z UKMET? Were the weenies too much for it?

[Prismshine Productions]

EPS ticked SE

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

EPS ticked SE

The Euro suite, which had been one of the wettest and is why I said I was fading it, continues its gradual drying trend while the Icon, which had been one of the driest, has been trending wetter. So, now the Icon and Euro are pretty close.

 The extremely low dewpoints are going to mean lots of virga to start. Will the virga overperform and minimize how much reaches the ground? Quite possible and it may be the main reason for big differences in qpf and changes from run to run.

[kvegas-wx]

Sure does feel like after this week we are going deep into Fab Feb before we'll this pattern back again.  Once the pattern relaxes it may not come back as we've seen before.  The inverse of our cold is the complete lack of winter in places like the mountains of CA.  I'll be headed out to Yosemite in April.  They have zero snow now.  Locals are telling me to expect a late winter there.  Probably about the time the SER returns here in March and April.  

Can't blame this one on Brick.  Not even he can mess up bad enough to make it snow on Bourbon St.  That takes a special kind of jinx.

[wxdawg10]

7 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

Maybe one day the models can be wrong again like they were in January 2000 and 12 hours out we'll find out the precip is going to be much farther north and everyone gets a big storm.

that will never happen again. modeling gets better every year.  Sure there will always be some surprises and you might get some under modeled snow fall. but nothing to the level of what happened in 2000.  Technology is too good for that. 

[lilj4425]

The models overnight must have been really bad. lol. 

[neverSnowsLCSC]

21 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

The models overnight must have been really bad. lol. 

Snow is just straight up vanishing inland of the immediate coast. Summerville will be lucky to see a few snow flakes now. This sucks. 

[olafminesaw]

Happy for the Gulf Coast, this will be a once in a generation type storm for many. 

[SnowGoose69]

Tough one for the NWS here, the GRAF/Euro/GFS are all showing snow extending way further in GA/SC/NC than any other model, you can assume the higher resolution  of the mesos is correct and why they see nothing but in airmass like this it might not take much to squeeze out an inch of snow

[goldman75]

So whats the fv3 high res? Decent/accurate mesos? It looks better than most. I feel like years ago there was a gfs fv3.  Been MIA from the hobby for a while 

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

So whats the fv3 high res? Decent/accurate mesos? It looks better than most. I feel like years ago there was a gfs fv3.  Been MIA from the hobby for a while 

It did well with the last SE storm, I know that.  Its awful with convection though.  I had been ignoring it since it was so bad last summer.

[wxdawg10]

35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Tough one for the NWS here, the GRAF/Euro/GFS are all showing snow extending way further in GA/SC/NC than any other model, you can assume the higher resolution  of the mesos is correct and why they see nothing but in airmass like this it might not take much to squeeze out an inch of snow

no not really..NWS is very comfortable with what they already put out. I know you're trying to hold on to hope but this one is over my friend

[PortsmouthWeather]

13 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

no not really..NWS is very comfortable with what they already put out. I know you're trying to hold on to hope but this one is over my friend

The NAM and 3K did trend west on the 12Z

[Wolfpack25]

Well, this went to 0 in a hurry.  I am about 20 miles west of Wilmington,NC and we were in the bullseye early.  Usually were are left out of the winter weather because of the NW trend but now we can't get any NW trend.  It was fun to track but this is probably our last shot of the year.  I hate this kind of cold without winter weather.  

[GaWx]

Warning: This is probably a great example of getting “NAM’ed”. What the heck?

6Z (3 km) had this qpf:

 

12Z: How could it increase so much in just one run? Not far from me it increased from 0.08” to 1.12”! The NW end of the precip went from a line from FL/AL/GA intersection to Albany to just N of SAV to CHS to 40 miles offshore from the SC/NC border on the 6Z to way up to a just N of Columbus/Macon to Augusta to just N of CAE to Fayetteville line on the 12Z! That’s a 100-125 mile NW shift! Any opinions?

 

[Met1985]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Warning: This is probably a great example of getting “NAM’ed”. What the heck?

6Z (3 km) had this qpf:

 

12Z: How could it increase so much in just one run? Not far from me it increased from 0.08” to 1.12”! The NW end of the precip went from a line from FL/AL/GA intersection to Albany to just N of SAV to CHS to 40 miles offshore from the SC/NC border on the 6Z to way up to a just N of Columbus/Macon to Augusta to just N of CAE to Fayetteville on the 12Z! That’s a 100-125 mile NW shift! Any opinions?

 

Hope you get smoked Larry.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Icon also got a bit wetter and is similar to the 12Z NAM. It wasn’t nearly as dramatic a change as the NAM’s but the 6Z Icon had already been much further NW and wetter than 6Z NAM. 

6Z Icon

 

12Z Icon

 

Look at how much further NW and wetter the 12Z Icon is vs the 18Z Icon on Saturday:

[metalicwx367]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Warning: This is probably a great example of getting “NAM’ed”. What the heck?

6Z (3 km) had this qpf:

 

12Z: How could it increase so much in just one run? Not far from me it increased from 0.08” to 1.12”! The NW end of the precip went from a line from FL/AL/GA intersection to Albany to just N of SAV to CHS to 40 miles offshore from the SC/NC border on the 6Z to way up to a just N of Columbus/Macon to Augusta to just N of CAE to Fayetteville line on the 12Z! That’s a 100-125 mile NW shift! Any opinions?

 

Loving all the model differences and changes for us each run from a major winter event less than 36 hours out. 

NWS Jax is expecting mainly freezing rain here. Starts out as snow briefly before changing over to predominantly freezing rain.

GFS has been trending colder each run and 6Z run had nearly all snow and sleet. 

Last Euro run trended warmer and drier again. Very little freezing rain though. 

12Z ICON trended significantly wetter and has snow starting out and transitioning to freezing rain.

Canadian and RGEM show an all sleet event. 

UKMET is dry af and all rain with the little precip that does fall.

Graphcast is sleet to snow. Less QPF than previous runs.

EC AIFS has trended drier. But nearly all snow. 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Weenie from NYC here

 

Congrats to everyone who will be seeing accumulating snow. This must be a once in a lifetime event for many people .

Enjoy

[wxdawg10]

1 hour ago, Wolfpack25 said:

Well, this went to 0 in a hurry.  I am about 20 miles west of Wilmington,NC and we were in the bullseye early.  Usually were are left out of the winter weather because of the NW trend but now we can't get any NW trend.  It was fun to track but this is probably our last shot of the year.  I hate this kind of cold without winter weather.  

sad.

[suzook]

I will enjoy the mood flakes here tomorrow evening. Looks like that's all I will see. Better than nothing.

[stormwatcherJ]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weenie from NYC here

 

Congrats to everyone who will be seeing accumulating snow. This must be a once in a lifetime event for many people .

Enjoy

Starting to wonder if anyone in the southeast will see any snow accumulations, lol

[GunBlade]

Another run or two of trends like this and everyone will be running back for more model run torture. This is the free goofy snow map which isn’t accurate but shows the growing precip field across the area.