1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

Wrong!

What exactly is wrong?

[SouthWake33]

Wrong!

If only we were all as smart as you!


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[neatlburbwthrguy]

Is the HRRR ever wrong by 100 miles bc the snow looks to only make it up to about Macon, doesn't get to ATL?

 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

I’ll always remember when Duplin County was supposed to get 24 inches

[fig]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

I’ll always remember when Duplin County was supposed to get 24 inches

Now instead we are hoping for 2-4 inches

[yotaman]

Wow, we have gone from 5-8 down to less than 1" in New Bern. Highs and lows have moderate too. Hope it changes tomorrow. Not looking good.

[NorthHillsWx]

New Orleans gets clobbered on HRRR

[franklin NCwx]

32 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said:

If only we were all as smart as you!


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You have been on this board for 15 years. It's not about being smart. You could take some time to learn

[franklin NCwx]

33 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

What exactly is wrong?

Upper levels drive the pattern brick. Not temps or surface highs

[gamecockinupstateSC]

[gamecockinupstateSC]

[Brick Tamland]

9 minutes ago, gamecockinupstateSC said:

Um, what?

[NorthHillsWx]

lol the NAM doesn’t even drop any precip in Charleston 

[StantonParkHoya]

I’ve never seen anything like this with the models. I mean it’s preposterous.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

I’ve never seen anything like this with the models. I mean it’s preposterous.

Compare the FV3 to the NAM. It’s freaking comical 

[DeltaPilot]

1 hour ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Is the HRRR ever wrong by 100 miles bc the snow looks to only make it up to about Macon, doesn't get to ATL?

 

 

Looks like the snow line is going to taper off right around ATL proper. I think north of that its a dusting to non accumulating flakes. South of the airport Looks like we have a chance at some accumulations right now, but its gonna be close. As I said earlier, Ill be happy with half an inch of white stuff, but hoping for 1". Still some time, and predicting where the "line" is right now, and even during the event, is pretty much impossible. I do think we will see widespread snow, but real accumulations will be south of KATL and where Im at in Senoia and more into Central and Southern GA. Earlier everything was trending south and Im still worried we just get some flakes here and no real accumulation, but most of the ensembles and the better models have held on to us south of ATL getting "something" accumulating. Fingers crossed. I think it only needs to be off by 30 miles or so for real differences to be seen.

[Prismshine Productions]

Reggie out to 36... slight tick SE over LA

[Brick Tamland]

Well, this is different.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Compare the FV3 to the NAM. It’s freaking comical 

Just looking at that. It held serve from its previous thinking. NAM is much drier on the NW side.


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[gamecockinupstateSC]

FV3 lower levels are too dry. Does not amount to much, unfortunately. We can put a fork in this one, it appears.  Ugh. Tracking the 10th system and now this for 15 minutes of flakes and cloudy skies Tuesday just hurts more because of the sustained cold pattern.  This is a kick to the nuts. 

[wxdawg10]

all time flame out..atleast you all got to see it crash and burn the day before so can cry away the sadness.  

 

i remember 8 inch storms that turned out to be a dusting to cold rain the day of!  that's what radicalized me. lol !

[neverSnowsLCSC]

I swear I'm moving to Alberta if CHS gets blanked.

[lilj4425]

We need a hurricane in Winter. That’s the only way we will get snow. 

[Brick Tamland]

4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

We need a hurricane in Winter. That’s the only way we will get snow. 

Probably have a better chance at getting a hurricane now than snow.

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Probably have a better chance at getting a hurricane now than snow.

It’s just crazy isn’t it? Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes... The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

[GaWx]

0Z ICON continues the general trend of this model moistening up in NW FL as well as in the GA/SC coastal areas:

0Z Icon qpf

 

0Z Icon 10:1 snow

 

Icon snow from 24 hours ago:

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

0Z ICON continues the general trend of this model moistening up in NW FL as well as in the GA/SC coastal areas:

0Z Icon qpf

 

0Z Icon 10:1 snow

 

Icon snow from 24 hours ago:

Only need about 400 hundred more model cycles of this NW trend and Central NC will be back in the game!!  Icon and FV3 starting an unstoppable trend going from .001 qpf to .01 qpf.

[neverSnowsLCSC]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z ICON continues the general trend of this model moistening up in NW FL as well as in the GA/SC coastal areas:

0Z Icon qpf

 

0Z Icon 10:1 snow

 

Icon snow from 24 hours ago:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Only need about 400 hundred more model cycles of this NW trend and Central NC will be back in the game!!  Icon and FV3 starting an unstoppable trend going from .001 qpf to .01 qpf.

Central NC is and has been cooked for a couple days now unless your hope is Pity flakes or a dusting 

[Brick Tamland]

Maybe one day the models can be wrong again like they were in January 2000 and 12 hours out we'll find out the precip is going to be much farther north and everyone gets a big storm.