1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[StantonParkHoya]

NAM is even worse

[timnc910]

Back to suppression city for the NAM. Some frozen precip for the gulf coast other than that its a snooze fest. 

[Brick Tamland]

Can't help but to laugh at this point. 

[Silver Meteor]

8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Can't help but to laugh at this point. 

Laugh or perhaps cry ... The cold has been relentless here in Greenville, NC and always with a breeze to make it worse. Nights are frigid and my electric bill has gone up like a rocket. All this with zero payoff ... Have yet to see the first snowflake. 

[EarlGrey]

We cant let this cold go to waste. Its a once in a decade cold stretch and we got nothing to show for it. 

[gallopinggertie]

Still seems like a go for SE Texas and Louisiana, right? NOLA and Houston are both under winter storm warnings/watches now. Actually so is most of South Texas, even Austin and San Antonio, just because the criteria is so low there. 

[PackGrad05]

Still expecting a trace to half inch for southeast portions of wake and into joco


.

[jburns]

32 minutes ago, Wormy2005 said:

My area is under a winter storm watch!! I've never seen snow before hoping it hits here 

So do I.  Good luck. 

[dsaur]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Here are 9 winter storms that gave GA notable wintry precip from ATL all the way to the coast: 

-1/28/2014: 2.6” snow ATL and light ZR/IP coast; 1003 mb low tracked across C FL but there was additional upper level energy that wasn’t on models til within 1-2 days that extended the precip’s northern edge much further north than earlier expected; earlier models had much more ZR/IP on coast than actually occurred; high to N/NW was 1036 mb over MO; this map is from 7AM next day:

 

-2/12/2010: 3-4” snows ATL and CHS with 0.9” snow at SAV airport tail end changeover; low tracked well down in Gulf at a strong 997 mb and then across C FL; high to NW was very weak (only 1010s); well predicted by models:

 

-1/7/1988: 4.2” sleet ATL and moderate ZR SAV; weak low (1017 mb) went from just S of Panhandle across N FL below strong wedge induced by 1037 mb NE high; see figure 5 at this link:

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf

-2/17-8/1979: 4.2” sleet ATL and light wintry mix SAV but CHS had 2”; weak low (1018 mb) was deep in the Gulf below very strong wedge induced by 1050 mb NE high and then crossed C FL; see surface maps here:

https://ocean.weather.gov/2-PresidentsDayStormColloquium_Uccellini.pdf
 

-2/10-11/1934: 4” snow ATL, 0.5” sleet SAV; very weak 1020ish low well down in Gulf below very strong wedge induced by 1047 mb NE high; see 2/10/1934 map here:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/swm.docs.lib/1934/19340210.pdf

 

-2/25/1914: Snow: ATL 2-3” and AHN/MCN: 6-7”; SAV had 0.5” sleet and major ZR; very weak 1020ish low formed well down in E Gulf below strong wedge induced by 1039 mb mid-Atlantic high; low crossed south-central FL; see 2/25/1914 map here:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/swm.docs.lib/1914/19140225.pdf

 

-2/11-12/1899: Snow 6.5” ATL and 2” SAV; 1009 mb low well down in Gulf and 1052 mb high to NW; low crossed C FL; see 2/12/1899 map here:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/swm.docs.lib/1899/18990212.pdf

 

-2/15-6/1895: Snow 6” ATL and 1.8” SAV; 1017 mb low well down in Gulf and 1047 mb high well to NW; low crossed C FL; see 2/15/1895 map in here:

https://www.stmweather.com/blog/valentines-day-1895-snow-in-new-orleans

 

-1/18-19/1893: Snow 9.6” ATL and 1” SAV; 1008 Gulf low then tracked ENE to Pensacola to SAV, furthest N of all of these storms while the high over the mid-Atlantic states moving into NE

Some very healthy totals, but airport totals.  I wonder what backyard totals were.  Is there a spotter archive?

[Brick Tamland]

16 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Laugh or perhaps cry ... The cold has been relentless here in Greenville, NC and always with a breeze to make it worse. Nights are frigid and my electric bill has gone up like a rocket. All this with zero payoff ... Have yet to see the first snowflake. 

It's always pointless without snow.

[Snow dog]

47 minutes ago, Wormy2005 said:

My area is under a winter storm watch!! I've never seen snow before hoping it hits here 

Man- I’m rooting for you!  Please send pics if you get some down there!

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, dsaur said:

Some very healthy totals, but airport totals.  I wonder what backyard totals were.  Is there a spotter archive?

Tony,

 This is a good source as it has snow option by county and date:

https://www.cocorahs.org/maps/ViewMap.aspx?state=usa

[PackGrad05]

New blend


.

[GaWx]

18Z Icon: 10:1 (Kuchera not available) so these amounts need to be reduced some especially SE side; regardless, overall trend for these areas has been a notable increase and further north for N end vs what yesterday and especially Fri runs showed: the Wed/Thu runs were actually pretty snowy before Fri became much drier; now bouncing back a good bit!

 

qpf: overall wetter trend recently due to slightly stronger low

 

Compare to qpf as of run 24 hours ago:

[NorthHillsWx]

12 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

New blend


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Where in the world are those eastern NC totals coming from? Does that include the late week storm???

[dsaur]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Tony,

 This is a good source as it has snow option by county and date:

https://www.cocorahs.org/maps/ViewMap.aspx?state=usa

Thanks, Mr. Abacus!

[StantonParkHoya]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Where in the world are those eastern NC totals coming from? Does that include the late week storm???

It’s a blend of ALL ensemble members

[Cheeznado]

32 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

New blend


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Gotta be older runs in there. That is way too far north.

[Bevo]

I stand corrected on this event. It looks like my instinct of a NW trend was wrong. I will commence with eating crickets or whatever gross thing you can think of. I know, I know...pics or it didn't happen.

[wxdawg10]

i do hope some of our GA and coastal NC folks cash in.   They've had it worse than even some of us. 

[NorthHillsWx]

28 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s a blend of ALL ensemble members

I know but the heaviest snow area isn’t even showing ANY snow on a single op

[USCG RS]

31 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I stand corrected on this event. It looks like my instinct of a NW trend was wrong. I will commence with eating crickets or whatever gross thing you can think of. I know, I know...pics or it didn't happen.

[VBsurf]

I know but the heaviest snow area isn’t even showing ANY snow on a single op

It has to be for the later week “event”. Be nice if we could see a shorter timeframe map of that to see for NE NC


.

[Bevo]

11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 I can actually admit when I'm wrong 

[suzook]

Southern GA and Northern Florida still looking like a disaster for ice.

[USCG RS]

17 minutes ago, Bevo said:

 I can actually admit when I'm wrong 

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, suzook said:

Southern GA and Northern Florida still looking like a disaster for ice.

This might be legit too. Low level temps and flow really look like an ice setup

[USCG RS]

6 minutes ago, suzook said:

Southern GA and Northern Florida still looking like a disaster for ice.

This, if able to verify, would be quite catastrophic for that area. ZR predictions are always very, very fickle though. Alot actually has to go right for ZR to occur and then to actually accumulate as well. 

[suzook]

22 minutes ago, Bevo said:

 I can actually admit when I'm wrong 

I could admit being wrong, but I never have been.

[Uncle Nasty]

3 hours ago, Wormy2005 said:

My area is under a winter storm watch!! I've never seen snow before hoping it hits here 

Good luck! The Tennessee Valley is pulling for you! I hope you get something!