1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[Bevo]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think a lot comes from the gulf coast likely getting more than most have gotten the last 6 years 

Yeah that has a lot to do with it. I mean, don't people move to the coast to get away from this LOL?

You don't typically say "Hey - I love winter weather so let's plan a beach trip!".

[Brick Tamland]

I guess it's a little like sports. Sometimes your team has a big lead and blows it, and sometimes they make an epic comeback and win at the buzzer, and sometimes they dominate from start to finish. Well, rarely do the models show a good storm 7 to 10 days out and it happens, so they rarely dominate. Most of the time it's the other two scenarios, with having a big lead and blowing it at the end happening more often than making an epic comeback.

[fig]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Yeah that has a lot to do with it. I mean, don't people move to the coast to get away from this LOL?

You don't typically say "Hey - I love winter weather so let's plan a beach trip!".

It's still nice to see from time to time! Growing up here I know I love seeing snow and understand the stress of missing out or getting stuck with cold rain while others are seeing flakes!

[Cheeznado]

SREF probabilities shifted significantly south. I think I might be lucky to see any snow at all.

[Brick Tamland]

7 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

I’m not mad at all about any weather models. In fact I feel like the most trusted (Euro) has called this a coastal storm the whole way. I’m just more frustrated with central NC getting nothing out of all this cold air. Unbelievable.

Actually, the Euro made a big NW jump on the midnight Saturday run and looked like the GFS and Canadian then. That's when everyone, even local TV mets here, were talking about the NW trend. But then the other models started coming in more suppressed and the Euro followed. I think it just faked us out.

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

SREF probabilities shifted significantly south. I think I might be lucky to see any snow at all.

Just measured an inch and a half here in extreme SW Virginia where that Model only gave a 30% chance of an inch or more . Short range Model's are terrible here.

[kayman]

5 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

06Z Euro is similar to the 0Z run. I may see a few snowflakes here, but congrats to GAWX down in SAV. It was probably too much to hope for us getting two good solid snow events in one winter,

Pmph! In Metro Charlotte, it's basically been in a snow drought since the two back-to-back snow events in January 2022. We got a brief snow burst of 0.4" on the 10th, but it turned to sleet the remainder of the event and dry air returned killed any change back to snow over late. 

Metro Charlotte is exactly like Denver (Colorado), it's too many microclimates across either the 3M+ region, but the parts inside of I-485 seems to have a true urban heat island issue that results in low to no chance of a decent snow inside of 485. The region gets skirted to the north in Cabarrus, Catawba, Iredell, Lincoln, northern Mecklenburg, Rowan, and Stanly counties like the random 1" snow in December 2024, or to the north & west in Catawba, Gaston, and Lincoln or northeast in Cabarrus, Rowan, and Stanly on the January 10th event. 

That's why so many of the posters in this part of the forum looks at so many of the Triangle and Central NC posters so puzzled and confused in silence over these obsessions of potential snow forecasts.

Although Charlotte is a much larger population region, we're so used to being ignored by this subforum, NWS, & even the national media outlets including the TWC for snow. Yet we're in a demographic market area (DMA) where the local TV stations with news operations have to do two seperate forecasts for core metro area counties and mountain counties. It's like so common for us to see snow with winter weather advisories, watches, or warnings in Watauga, Ashe, Burke and Caldwell counties while is nothing south or southeast of those counties, that we don't even really care anymore. It's likely just going to be a very cold and windy Tuesday in Charlotte.

We're lucky to have a great forecaster like Brad P here but he only has access to what most already have on hand here.  I'll once again remind people that that NWS radar hole does contribute to wrong forecasting as well. 

[digital snow]

I thought we were here because it's unpredictable. Isn't that why it's exciting? 

[Cheeznado]

On 1/18/2025 at 9:33 AM, Brick Tamland said:

The Canadian has been pretty consistent. 

Not any more

[metalicwx367]

33 minutes ago, digital snow said:

I thought we were here because it's unpredictable. Isn't that why it's exciting? 

Exactly. 

Expected precipitation type is still a mystery here in South Georgia for this storm and we are less than 3 days out. Expecting to be under a Winter Storm Watch later.

Gonna ride the Euro and Euro ensembles for this one. They've been consistent. If we manage to switch over to snow earlier than expected, might have a shot at breaking our record snowfall of 3 inches back in the 1970s.

[Thrasher Fan]

https://x.com/NWSSouthern/status/1881031703810166915

[sinterpol]

I've read on here over the years that sometimes in NC the best snows popped up around 48 hours beforehand. Is there a possibility of that happening? I've seen so many times on here people swearing off a storm only to be reeled back in 12-24 hours later.

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro more suppressed. Almost no precip in NC besides immediate coast

[PackGrad05]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Euro more suppressed. Almost no precip in NC besides immediate coast

If the ensembles follow that trend, then I'm done with this one.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Cheeznado said:

SREF probabilities shifted significantly south. I think I might be lucky to see any snow at all.

I still think something happens there, the strong 250mb jet on the N side could also generate snow.  I'd start watching the HRRR at the end of its runs.  It has tended to do a good job seeing these WAA induced areas of snow that can occur as a result of that feature and it will see them at 48 hours.  If the 18Z or 00Z HRRR generate snow into MS/AL north of the other models that would be an indicator of it

[chris21]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Just measured an inch and a half here in extreme SW Virginia where that Model only gave a 30% chance of an inch or more . Short range Model's are terrible here.

SREF is pretty terrible in the mountains generally. 

[wxdawg10]

i see alot of cliff diving..well i've been down here for awhile would like to extend a net for those who want it

[Cheeznado]

Euro ensembles confirm the trend. Frankly, personally I would rather see a cool historic Gulf Coast snow than an inch or two here, I already had 3.5" with the last system.

[snowbird1230]

3 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

It's really useless to trust anything with the models beyond 3 days. And if that's the case what is the point of looking at the long range models and discussing things on a forum like this? It's like daydreaming about what you would do if you won the lottery. 

True..and really,  what good are the ensembles? They change every run also ,so pretty tired of people screaming ensembles...

[PackGrad05]

For NC, ensembles have been spot on for days now. Don’t look at specific amounts. Look at where they are focusing.
This has been an eastern NC storm for days now.


.

[kvegas-wx]

Louisiana is about to get shut down for a couple of days.  Maybe some Cajun Snow Cream in their future!  Really impressive potential for the gulf coast.  Hoping they get their fill!

[Flum]

Observing from Atlanta for the last 10 years, it almost never works out when there is an arctic airmass in place and the moisture is supposed to come north from the gulf. Seems to me, there is some mechanism that prevents the moist air from penetrating the frigid air. It only really works out when they two systems arrive simultaneously and intermingle. I may be wrong about what's occurring -- just an amateur who enjoys tracking the weather. 

[DeltaPilot]

Im not cliff diving yet. Im in the 1.5-2ish zone on the Euro. Ill even take a half an inch for the win. As some have said, if this verifies and the folks along the coast score more than a few inches

that will be EPIC!!! I was in Jacksonville, FL for the Winter 89 event and it was crazy! I'll be happy for them. Remember that it aint over until the Fat Lady sings and I havent heard

her warming up quite yet.

[Bevo]

45 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Louisiana is about to get shut down for a couple of days.  Maybe some Cajun Snow Cream in their future!  Really impressive potential for the gulf coast.  Hoping they get their fill!

I think I would actually love to try something like that  

[GaWx]

Here are 9 winter storms that gave GA notable wintry precip from ATL all the way to the coast: 

-1/28/2014: 2.6” snow ATL and light ZR/IP coast; 1003 mb low tracked across C FL but there was additional upper level energy that wasn’t on models til within 1-2 days that extended the precip’s northern edge much further north than earlier expected; earlier models had much more ZR/IP on coast than actually occurred; high to N/NW was 1036 mb over MO; this map is from 7AM next day:

 

-2/12/2010: 3-4” snows ATL and CHS with 0.9” snow at SAV airport tail end changeover; low tracked well down in Gulf at a strong 997 mb and then across C FL; high to NW was very weak (only 1010s); well predicted by models:

 

-1/7/1988: 4.2” sleet ATL and moderate ZR SAV; weak low (1017 mb) went from just S of Panhandle across N FL below strong wedge induced by 1037 mb NE high; see figure 5 at this link:

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf

-2/17-8/1979: 4.2” sleet ATL and light wintry mix SAV but CHS had 2”; weak low (1018 mb) was deep in the Gulf below very strong wedge induced by 1050 mb NE high and then crossed C FL; see surface maps here:

https://ocean.weather.gov/2-PresidentsDayStormColloquium_Uccellini.pdf
 

-2/10-11/1934: 4” snow ATL, 0.5” sleet SAV; very weak 1020ish low well down in Gulf below very strong wedge induced by 1047 mb NE high; see 2/10/1934 map here:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/swm.docs.lib/1934/19340210.pdf

 

-2/25/1914: Snow: ATL 2-3” and AHN/MCN: 6-7”; SAV had 0.5” sleet and major ZR; very weak 1020ish low formed well down in E Gulf below strong wedge induced by 1039 mb mid-Atlantic high; low crossed south-central FL; see 2/25/1914 map here:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/swm.docs.lib/1914/19140225.pdf

 

-2/11-12/1899: Snow 6.5” ATL and 2” SAV; 1009 mb low well down in Gulf and 1052 mb high to NW; low crossed C FL; see 2/12/1899 map here:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/swm.docs.lib/1899/18990212.pdf

 

-2/15-6/1895: Snow 6” ATL and 1.8” SAV; 1017 mb low well down in Gulf and 1047 mb high well to NW; low crossed C FL; see 2/15/1895 map in here:

https://www.stmweather.com/blog/valentines-day-1895-snow-in-new-orleans

 

-1/18-19/1893: Snow 9.6” ATL and 1” SAV; 1008 Gulf low then tracked ENE to Pensacola to SAV, furthest N of all of these storms while the high over the mid-Atlantic states moving into NE

[metalicwx367]

Winter Storm Watch issued. 

[GaWx]

CHS just issued WSWatch also: sounds reasonable to me; I’d be quite happy if we could get 1-2” of snow/sleet here considering some models have under 1”, the trend has been toward weaker low/drier, and ~1” has occurred only twice since 2/1989 (1/2018 and 2/2010). Have to keep in perspective based on long period of climo history available. Avg annual snow/sleet here is 0.2”. This isn’t ATL, which averages 10 x as much! 1” would be 5 years worth climowise.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC   254 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH   WEDNESDAY MORNING...     * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ONE TO THREE   INCHES POSSIBLE.     * WHERE...IN GEORGIA, BULLOCH, CANDLER, EFFINGHAM, EVANS, JENKINS,   SCREVEN, AND TATTNALL COUNTIES. IN SOUTH CAROLINA, ALLENDALE,   CHARLESTON, COASTAL COLLETON, DORCHESTER, HAMPTON, INLAND   BERKELEY, INLAND COLLETON, INLAND JASPER, AND TIDAL BERKELEY   COUNTIES.

———————————

Savannah is covered by this 2nd part:

..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH   WEDNESDAY MORNING...     * WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET   ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AND UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE   ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.     * WHERE...IN GEORGIA, COASTAL BRYAN, COASTAL CHATHAM, COASTAL   LIBERTY, COASTAL MCINTOSH, INLAND BRYAN, INLAND CHATHAM, INLAND   LIBERTY, INLAND MCINTOSH, AND LONG COUNTIES. IN SOUTH CAROLINA,   BEAUFORT AND COASTAL JASPER COUNTIES.     * WHEN...FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.     * IMPACTS...PLAN ON TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON   BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT   COULD RESULT IN REFREEZING AND BLACK ICE FORMATION. POWER OUTAGES   AND TREE DAMAGE ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE ICE.

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

CHS just issued WSWatch also:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC   254 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH   WEDNESDAY MORNING...     * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ONE TO THREE   INCHES POSSIBLE.     * WHERE...IN GEORGIA, BULLOCH, CANDLER, EFFINGHAM, EVANS, JENKINS,   SCREVEN, AND TATTNALL COUNTIES. IN SOUTH CAROLINA, ALLENDALE,   CHARLESTON, COASTAL COLLETON, DORCHESTER, HAMPTON, INLAND   BERKELEY, INLAND COLLETON, INLAND JASPER, AND TIDAL BERKELEY   COUNTIES.

———————————

..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH   WEDNESDAY MORNING...     * WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET   ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AND UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE   ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.     * WHERE...IN GEORGIA, COASTAL BRYAN, COASTAL CHATHAM, COASTAL   LIBERTY, COASTAL MCINTOSH, INLAND BRYAN, INLAND CHATHAM, INLAND   LIBERTY, INLAND MCINTOSH, AND LONG COUNTIES. IN SOUTH CAROLINA,   BEAUFORT AND COASTAL JASPER COUNTIES.     * WHEN...FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.     * IMPACTS...PLAN ON TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON   BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT   COULD RESULT IN REFREEZING AND BLACK ICE FORMATION. POWER OUTAGES   AND TREE DAMAGE ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE ICE.

Glad to see you get a WSW.  Sure it wasn't even in your thinking a couple weeks ago.

[Silver Meteor]

5 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

It's really useless to trust anything with the models beyond 3 days. And if that's the case what is the point of looking at the long range models and discussing things on a forum like this? It's like daydreaming about what you would do if you won the lottery. 

A reminder how amazingly wrong even the best of models can be at medium to long range. Here is the ECMWF one week ago today:

 

[Wormy2005]

My area is under a winter storm watch!! I've never seen snow before hoping it hits here