1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[suzook]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Surprised they put a WSW out THAT far N in GA.  I do think maybe the ATL metro could see an inch as the WAA snow area in these often ends up extending more N than models show at this range but the northern tier of counties in the watch seems a bit far north

I was just about to post that. I am in south Coweta county, and they issued a WSW. Looks like I am looking at maybe an inch if lucky. Seems a bit premature, but I guess it couldn't hurt to be proactive. Slight shift north could put us in a 3 inch range.

[Cheeznado]

IMO it is irresponsible for local TV mets to show forecasted snow amounts this far in the future down to the tenth of an inch.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, suzook said:

I was just about to post that. I am in south Coweta county, and they issued a WSW. Looks like I am looking at maybe an inch if lucky. Seems a bit premature, but I guess it couldn't hurt to be proactive. Slight shift north could put us in a 3 inch range.

The January 2018 and January 2014 storms at this range looked similar.  This is actually an extremely close match to 14, 18 not quite as much as that had more NW flow and was a weaker system down along the Gulf which fooled so many of us but we were warned on forecasts for the AL/GA region to watch out because there was SW flow in the mid-levels and the models could be underdoing amounts.  sure enough inside 36 hours everything started expanding the snow area and parts of S ATL had 4 inches with it.    

[Cheeznado]

FWIW the 48 hr HRRR in TX

[PackGrad05]

12Z NAM has 6-9 hours of snow for eastern NC...  the northwest edge gets pretty much to I-95

[Thrasher Fan]

12z NAM was a decent run for a lot of this forum. Expectations with this storm got WAY too high, WAY too early.

[msuwx]

This storm is yet another example of why I never issue my own accumulation forecast, post, or publically show any model accumulation maps on air until at absolute earliest, 48 hours ahead of an event. 

In many ways, I miss the very old days where all of this data wasn’t available to all of the masses. Just opens the door for fear-mongering, hyping, and click-baiting. 
 

I honestly don’t know if I would have developed my love for weather as a child as I did in this current environment as it is today. 

[olafminesaw]

[QC_Halo]

3 hours ago, gman said:

Why do so many live and die by praising or blaming computer models? The weather is going to do what it does, right? What did our weather experts of yesterday use to follow storms? Having so many computer models just adds confusion and bad information for the public. Am I wrong? 

Wishcasters. 

[Brick Tamland]

It's really useless to trust anything with the models beyond 3 days. And if that's the case what is the point of looking at the long range models and discussing things on a forum like this? It's like daydreaming about what you would do if you won the lottery. 

[ILM2714]

24 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Is ILM cooked?

[ILM2714]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

It's really useless to trust anything with the models beyond 3 days. And if that's the case what is the point of looking at the long range models and discussing things on a forum like this? It's like daydreaming about what you would do if you won the lottery. 

It’s enjoyable as long as you can keep your emotions and expectations in check. The discussion is tons of fun but in my short time here I’ve noted that anything further than 48-72 hours out needs to be seen as entertainment. 

[SnowGoose69]

The ICON finally got a clue this run and looks similar over GA/SC to others

[NorthHillsWx]

HUGE NW shift on ICON. Eastern NC should like 

[PackGrad05]

This always happens. After the huge shift yesterday, expect models to recoil back to the west today.


.

[neatlburbwthrguy]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The ICON finally got a clue this run and looks similar over GA/SC to others

do you have a map for this?  does it make as far north as ATL?

[gamecockinupstateSC]

6 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

do you have a map for this?  does it make as far north as ATL?

 

[USCG RS]

2 hours ago, Tony Sisk said:

This is a problem in everything now. News, Politics, Religion…you name it. Everything is sensationalized to fit whatever narrative they want to present. It’s toxic. My wife swears Social Media is the Anti-Christ!

[Cheeznado]

New GFS only marginally better, still has the only significant snow in LA and TX.

[WarmNoseHater]

42 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

It's really useless to trust anything with the models beyond 3 days. And if that's the case what is the point of looking at the long range models and discussing things on a forum like this? It's like daydreaming about what you would do if you won the lottery. 

We were here the day Brick finally got it. 
 

we’ll also all be here next week when he forgets it. 

[hrtsdsn]

So many in NC have not had snow for years.  If you grew up here,  even just the possibility of it is exciting    We are used to the let down    it was fun tracking this.   Thank you Brick!

With that said, these new models flip flopping like they do this entire winter - I used to be able to logon here and watch y'all's banter and be able to give my family an early heads up.  The way these new models act. I can't do that. I don't trust anything now until like you said within what the three day window.

Are the models so precise and sensitive that this is the new normal or will the models use AI to improve over time?   Or is weather just that unpredictable? Probably, and the models are just proving that point which makes meteorology more than just numbers but also combined with your experience.  

Not complaining, just an observation.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, yotaman said:

Wasn't the 1899 one even heavier and colder?

Nevermind, I just looked it up. It wasn't much snow but the extreme cold that it was known for.

1899's biggest snows occurred farther up the Eastern Seaboard.

[dsaur]

49 minutes ago, ILM2714 said:

It’s enjoyable as long as you can keep your emotions and expectations in check. The discussion is tons of fun but in my short time here I’ve noted that anything further than 48-72 hours out needs to be seen as entertainment. 

All the focus is on amounts, like it's a contest.  Climo doesn't give a crap if you see a flake or a foot.  If folks want better predictions then call you senator and demand a substantial increase in money spent on accumulation of accurate data and super computers to digest it.  When I was a kid all I had was reports to pilots at the  airport. At 7am daily.  Things have come a long way, but could be infinitely better with some funding. Why is the doc generally the king?  Because it's in Europe.

[SnowDawg]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The January 2018 and January 2014 storms at this range looked similar.  This is actually an extremely close match to 14, 18 not quite as much as that had more NW flow and was a weaker system down along the Gulf which fooled so many of us but we were warned on forecasts for the AL/GA region to watch out because there was SW flow in the mid-levels and the models could be underdoing amounts.  sure enough inside 36 hours everything started expanding the snow area and parts of S ATL had 4 inches with it.    

I've seen the 2014 comparison for a while now on this one, but my main question would be have the models improved enough over 10 years for that kind of a last second surprise to no longer be possible? I've seen many people say, "this is just like 2014. Just wait, the precip will much further north than expected." Now, I know to many the models are worse than they've ever been, but studies say otherwise and that they continue to become more accurate with every passing year. 

[NorthHillsWx]

This place went to hell in a handbasket

[ATDoel]

Everyone crying about the models need to grow up, you sound like a bunch of spoiled children. The facts are this storm was sniffed out 10 days before genesis, it most likely will have significant impacts to a larger number of people.  If you expected the models to perfectly verify at your local level several days before the event, you need to get your expectations checked.

We watch and discuss these storms several days out because it’s fun, if it isn’t fun for you than maybe you need another hobby.

[lilj4425]

This forum is falling apart. Maybe the government should do some cloud seeding this week in our area to make us all happy.  

[Seminole]

This tread needs some cheese with all the whining going on. The gulf coast is in play for snow amounts not seen in 36 years. Enjoy this rare event. 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, Seminole said:

This tread needs some cheese with all the whining going on. The gulf coast is in play for snow amounts not seen in 36 years. Enjoy this rare event. 

I think a lot comes from the gulf coast likely getting more than most have gotten the last 6 years 

[stormwatcherJ]

I’m not mad at all about any weather models. In fact I feel like the most trusted (Euro) has called this a coastal storm the whole way. I’m just more frustrated with central NC getting nothing out of all this cold air. Unbelievable.