1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[NorthHillsWx]

lol New Orleans likely to get more snow than last 3 RDU winters combined 

[Cheeznado]

06Z Euro is similar to the 0Z run. I may see a few snowflakes here, but congrats to GAWX down in SAV. It was probably too much to hope for us getting two good solid snow events in one winter,

[NorthHillsWx]

As for a full model miss, the Canadian gets the crown. It did trend towards reality yesterday but that’s why you never hug the Canadian. Surprisingly, EURO and EPS gets second place for junk model of this storm. While everything else was trending away it bought into the storm. Now it’s trending back to reality. UK, GFS, and… ICON all seem to have had the correct idea at the furthest range.

[Tony Sisk]

45 minutes ago, gman said:

Why do so many live and die by praising or blaming computer models? The weather is going to do what it does, right? What did our weather experts of yesterday use to follow storms? Having so many computer models just adds confusion and bad information for the public. Am I wrong? 

That’s why I just listen to GSP NWS. Are they always right? No, but who is. But they get it right a whole lot and have proven to be reliable.

[goldman75]

I’m still holding onto hope here in Myrtle beach

[fig]

6 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

I’m still holding onto hope here in Myrtle beach

Same in Wilmington!

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

I’m still holding onto hope here in Myrtle beach

 

1 minute ago, fig said:

Same in Wilmington!

Y’all will definitely see some snow. The big totals, however, are gone

[ncforecaster89]

1 hour ago, gman said:

Why do so many live and die by praising or blaming computer models? The weather is going to do what it does, right? What did our weather experts of yesterday use to follow storms? Having so many computer models just adds confusion and bad information for the public. Am I wrong? 

To be fair, the advancement in computer processing power/modeling has dramatically improved our forecast accuracy, by an incalculable margin.  
 

The larger issues relate to both too much public accessibility to long range modeling (and the misuse, thereof) and poor messaging.  In this social media age, too many content creators (or what I like to call socialmediarologists) are most interested in engagement farming and it hurts the integrity of the science and trust within the general public, at large.  

In addition, most don’t truly comprehend/appreciate the immense complexities involved with attempting to predict the weather, accurately, at even the short range.  The truth of the matter is that it will always be an inexact science…yet it’s truly amazing how much progress has been made within just the past 30 years.  
 

I’ll conclude by stating that not a one of us meteorologists could consistently outperform the more reliable models…which is why we have them in the first place.   

[Uncle Nasty]

8 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

I’m still holding onto hope here in Myrtle beach

 

1 minute ago, fig said:

Same in Wilmington!

Reading the forecast discussion for both of your areas is very promising.  Those guys are the pros. If I were in either one of your locations. I'd feel pretty good about a good snow. 

[wxdawg10]

41 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

That’s why I just listen to GSP NWS. Are they always right? No, but who is. But they get it right a whole lot and have proven to be reliable.

RAH never bit on this storm either. Also credit to Brad P, he was never sold on the NW trend and people were fighting him on twitter about it. Times like these make you realize why they are pro and we are amateurs.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, wxdawg10 said:

RAH never bit on this storm either. Also credit to Brad P, he was never sold on the NW trend and people were fighting him on twitter about it. Times like these make you realize why they are pro and we are amateurs.

Brad P and NWS did a fantastic job. Honestly I don’t think most on this forum really bought into the storm without any model consistency and with the real possibility of a strung out mess that was never going to work. 

[suzook]

Sorry for my ridiculous posts last night. Too much beer watching the lions ruin their season last night.

[MJO812]

I hope everyone enjoys the snow.  When was the last time the New Orleans saw snow ? Quite a feat.

[PackGrad05]

06Z Euro is similar to the 0Z run. I may see a few snowflakes here, but congrats to GAWX down in SAV. It was probably too much to hope for us getting two good solid snow events in one winter,

Depends where you live. We barely got a half inch of sleet in southern wake with maybe five snowflakes.


.

[wncsnow]

The ICON has honestly performed best with this "system"  It consistently was suppressed and weak and here we are. 

[PackGrad05]

RAH says in their morning discussion that snow is still likely from generally US-1 to the east.


.

[Tony Sisk]

37 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

To be fair, the advancement in computer processing power/modeling has dramatically improved our forecast accuracy, by an incalculable margin.  
 

The larger issues relate to both too much public accessibility to long range modeling (and the misuse, thereof) and poor messaging.  In this social media age, too many content creators (or what I like to call socialmediarologists) are most interested in engagement farming and it hurts the integrity of the science and trust within the general public, at large.  

In addition, most don’t truly comprehend/appreciate the immense complexities involved with attempting to predict the weather, accurately, at even the short range.  The truth of the matter is that it will always be an inexact science…yet it’s truly amazing how much progress has been made within just the past 30 years.  
 

I’ll conclude by stating that not a one of us meteorologists could consistently outperform the more reliable models…which is why we have them in the first place.   

This is a problem in everything now. News, Politics, Religion…you name it. Everything is sensationalized to fit whatever narrative they want to present. It’s toxic. My wife swears Social Media is the Anti-Christ!

[VBsurf]

06Z Euro is similar to the 0Z run. I may see a few snowflakes here, but congrats to GAWX down in SAV. It was probably too much to hope for us getting two good solid snow events in one winter,

Any chance you can show the map a little further north into SE VA? Hanging by a thread up here in Va Beach. Local mets have all but thrown in the towel based on overnight model runs.


.

[PackGrad05]

Chris Michaels at WRAL does a great job explaining things and keeping it real:

 

SUNDAY UPDATE

I'm not showing exact numbers this morning, but I imagine we'll put out a "first-call" map this afternoon for what's to come Tuesday evening-early Wednesday.

Let me explain why.

- I don't believe in jerking you guys around with a change in the forecast every 6-12 hours. We've been consistent in saying the coast gets the most out of this.

- For instance, a shift of 25-50 miles changes everything you see Tuesday evening/early Wednesday. Saturday morning, Raleigh's odds of 1" of snow were 55%. Sunday morning, they're 29% because of a subtle shift east in the modeling.

- The best chance of 1" of snow or more is near/east of I-95.

- Weather balloon data will begin showing up in the models we get between 11a and 1p today. That should give us some clarity.

- By Sunday afternoon, you'll have 48+ hours of lead time. That's more than enough. Being first is cool, but putting together as accurate and clear a forecast as possible takes priority.

[Tacoma]

seems like when there is a storm the snow shield will usually go further north than the models show as in last weekends snow did

[donsutherland1]

With a rare widespread Gulf Coast snow event possible, some short accounts from the legendary February 1895 snowstorm are below:

Source of the Atlanta sleighing scene: The Atlanta Constitution, February 18, 1895.

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I hope everyone enjoys the snow.  When was the last time the New Orleans saw snow ? Quite a feat.

December 4, 2009: 0.1".

[DeltaPilot]

Just need the models to tick north a few miles and I’ll be happy. Most model runs/ensembles have seen us getting some measurable snow for the last 4-5 days. Would be awesome to see two events in one month. We got about 1.5 here last one(20nm S of KATL). Its pretty darn rare that S of ATL we might be on the NORTH side of a snow event! 

[NorthHillsWx]

What a waste of a prolonged January cold snap. If you told me we’d be more than -7 through the first 20 days of January I’d definitely taken my chances 

[stormwatcherJ]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

What a waste of a prolonged January cold snap. If you told me we’d be more than -7 through the first 20 days of January I’d definitely taken my chances 

Yeah. Unbelievable. I give up. Again.

[strongwxnc]

2 hours ago, gman said:

Why do so many live and die by praising or blaming computer models? The weather is going to do what it does, right? What did our weather experts of yesterday use to follow storms? Having so many computer models just adds confusion and bad information for the public. Am I wrong? 

More the better. However, general Q public (which includes me) lack the knowledge base to decode the model runs. 

Comet MET ED has Applied NWP Course which is a great start to understand more about how this happens. 

 

[PackGrad05]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

What a waste of a prolonged January cold snap. If you told me we’d be more than -7 through the first 20 days of January I’d definitely taken my chances 

Just lends more credit to the theory that our area has to have "Goldilocks" conditions..   Too cold and we miss out to the northwest...  Too warm and we miss out to the southeast.  So difficult...

I still think we see snow in Wake County.  It may not be enough to play with, but roads will not be fun Wednesday morning

[yotaman]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With a rare widespread Gulf Coast snow event possible, some short accounts from the legendary February 1895 snowstorm are below:

Source of the Atlanta sleighing scene: The Atlanta Constitution, February 18, 1895.

Wasn't the 1899 one even heavier and colder?

Nevermind, I just looked it up. It wasn't much snow but the extreme cold that it was known for.

[olafminesaw]

[SnowGoose69]

Surprised they put a WSW out THAT far N in GA.  I do think maybe the ATL metro could see an inch as the WAA snow area in these often ends up extending more N than models show at this range but the northern tier of counties in the watch seems a bit far north