1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[gopack42]

Those freezing rain totals in S Ga would be.......not an ideal situation.  

[Thrasher Fan]

ICON out to 72 and a bit more north and a bit more moisture. Minor on both accounts.

 

Not a good look for most of the viewing area. Dry and sheared

[franklin NCwx]

14 minutes ago, jburns said:

Psst……that 17 is in South Georgia.

Brunswick!

[wncsnow]

The RGEM is south.  The Canadian will be too. 

[Brick Tamland]

Crazy how hard it is to get a decent snow storm here now. Even with all this cold we still can't get one. What a waste of cold. 

[neverSnowsLCSC]

I'm ok with sleet. Close enough to snow for me. If this trends any more north/west then the Lowcountry is going to be 33 and rainy.

[franklin NCwx]

8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Crazy how hard it is to get a decent snow storm here now. Even with all this cold we still can't get one. What a waste of cold. 

Lol

[snowinnc]

Just the thought of New Orleans getting 5-8” of snow is crazy! 

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s kind of wild this is about to screw even our coastal friends. I’ve come to terms this isn’t going to get RDU, but I want it to bury ILM and EWN

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, snowinnc said:

Just the thought of New Orleans getting 5-8” of snow is crazy! 

Baton Rouge could get 10". 

[snowinnc]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s kind of wild this is about to screw even our coastal friends. I’ve come to terms this isn’t going to get RDU, but I want it to bury ILM and EWN

Agreed. It’s not our storm, but I’m going to be bummed for our friends on the coast if they don’t get it. I still think ILM will get at least 4+ though.

[senc30]

I'm in Jacksonville. If no snow means avoiding ice and freezing rain, I'm fine with that. That Thursday evening/night forecast for us isn't anything I want. 

[ncforecaster89]

55 minutes ago, suzook said:

LMFAO, this ain't happening. 17 inches in northern Florida. Like I said, throw this out.

Looking at the NAM beyond 48 hours is fools gold.  The same applies to the Kuchera snow maps. If you want best accuracy, use 10:1 around here.  

[BornAgain13]

0z NBM 

[PackGrad05]

How in the world are some of you throwing in the towel? No, this isn’t going to be a ten inch snow for central NC, but a lot of folks are still going to see a nice snow (even if only an inch).

I still consider myself on a snow drought bc all we got was sleet during the storm on the tenthth.

The signals are great for central NC to the coast to get some snow. No mixing issues and high ratios. Plus instant sticking due to super cold antecedent conditions.


.

[ncforecaster89]

We’re still a relatively long ways out to be forecasting precise snowfall amounts.   That said, I’d go with 2-4” for Wilmington, NC at this particular time.  
 

Should begin to see an ever-growing model consensus during the next 24 hours as the energy gets better sampled by the sondes.  

[snowbird1230]

16 minutes ago, senc30 said:

I'm in Jacksonville. If no snow means avoiding ice and freezing rain, I'm fine with that. That Thursday evening/night forecast for us isn't anything I want. 

Do I know u lol?

 

 

[calculus1]

1 minute ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Should begin to see an ever-growing model consensus during the next 24 hours as the energy gets better sampled by the sondes.  

Take a drink!

[Upstate Tiger]

Man that’s some heavy snow in Southern La breaking out on the GFS. 

[BornAgain13]

GFS is still a whiff almost even near the coast.

[wncsnow]

GFS is ugly 

[Thrasher Fan]

Yuck.

[neverSnowsLCSC]

Complete and utter disaster. Please be wrong...

[lilj4425]

Damn. Brick Tamland really jinxed us.  

[PackGrad05]

Nothing new from GFS so no worries. GEFS has always looked better which says the deterministic is held up on some bad data. Outlier.


.

[BooneWX]

I don’t know how to say this without sounding like a dick or a troll, because I’m really not trying to be, but all I’ve heard for days are phrases like “go south!” “Flat and weak is our best option,” “more northern stream, less southern stream.” 
 

Well. Here we are. Weak strung out mess with a dominant northern stream and a low damn near close to Cuba. Reel her in Orlando!

[tarheelwx]

The Friday storm is the ticket.  
TW

[Upstate Tiger]

GFS with 2 EC storms before mid week. Mid Atlantic and northeast in line for 2 hits.  

[Brick Tamland]

Once again the models fooled us. Really thought this was going to be a big storm here with what all the models were showing a couple days ago besides the Euro. Then the Euro came on board last night and I thought that was the final piece to the puzzle. This morning the local mets were talking about the NW trend after the Euro made the NW jump. But then after the Euro joined the other models, they started going further and further south, and the Euro followed. Less than 24 hours and what looked like a big storm for a lot of folks went to just a storm for those right on the beach, and this within 72 hours of when the storm is supposed to be here. This is a kick in the guts after 3 years of not having any real snow. Maybe a decent storm will come along this winter. But I am feeling more and more like being on here and following the models is just a waste of time. It really doesn't matter because it's not like it affects what happens. Whatever happens is going to happen, and maybe it's better to just let it happen and not try to see what's going to happen with the models and everything days and weeks before. It's always better to.be surprised anyway than to be hopeful for a storm because it looks good on the models only for it to fall apart.

[wncsnow]

Canadian is terrible for ENC.