1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[PackGrad05]

EPS probabilities:

Areas east of I-95 have at least a 75% chance of 1" of snow, increasing as you go further east.
Wake County probabilities vary 45-70% from Morrisville to Fuquay.  

3" probabilities is 20-40% from west to east across Wake
50% or greater east of I-95

The ENTIRE state of NC has at least 80% chance of dusting.  Never seen that before.

[HKY_WX]

This what i'm thinking currently. Will update with some totals tomorrow night. I don't expect any dramatic jumps with this system at this point as the pattern doesn't dictate such, but a trend NW as we get near gametime wouldn't be unexpected (if not expected given the last 2 systems of note). I've noticed the GFS has had a bias of overshearing STJ waves recently until it self correct within 72 hours. This is one reason for the last minute corrections we've seen with some of the models. From an NC IMBY perspective, my location of Choice would be somewhere around Greenville NC to Kinston NC. Not sure I would expect historic snowfall but moderate to major for that area in NC. The totals in LA/Southern MS/AL could be historic however.

 

[suzook]

There's still plenty of time for things to change. Sounds like people are thinking this is locked in place. 

[Tacoma]

There's still time for some NW trend but the storm needs to get stronger or more amped up to move the snow shield more NW.  

[StantonParkHoya]

8 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

This what i'm thinking currently. Will update with some totals tomorrow night. I don't expect any dramatic jumps with this system at this point as the pattern doesn't dictate such, but a trend NW as we get near gametime wouldn't be unexpected (if not expected given the last 2 systems of note). I've noticed the GFS has had a bias of overshearing STJ waves recently until it self correct within 72 hours. This is one reason for the last minute corrections we've seen with some of the models. From an NC IMBY perspective, my location of Choice would be somewhere around Greenville NC to Kinston NC. Not sure I would expect historic snowfall but moderate to major for that area in NC. The totals in LA/Southern MS/AL could be historic however.

 

For several years from 2008-2012 or so Greenville NC was the snow capital of NC outside the mountains

[Upstate Tiger]

For those who’ve not read the GSP AFD.  About as good of an explanation as you will see on the potential   

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[downeastnc]

12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

This what i'm thinking currently. Will update with some totals tomorrow night. I don't expect any dramatic jumps with this system at this point as the pattern doesn't dictate such, but a trend NW as we get near gametime wouldn't be unexpected (if not expected given the last 2 systems of note). I've noticed the GFS has had a bias of overshearing STJ waves recently until it self correct within 72 hours. This is one reason for the last minute corrections we've seen with some of the models. From an NC IMBY perspective, my location of Choice would be somewhere around Greenville NC to Kinston NC. Not sure I would expect historic snowfall but moderate to major for that area in NC. The totals in LA/Southern MS/AL could be historic however.

 

 

Hope your right lol....this is the setup I look for to get 6-12" out of....

[Tony Sisk]

6 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

For those who’ve not read the GSP AFD.  About as good of an explanation as you will see on the potential   

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

They are for sure the best in the business.

[wxdawg10]

Honestly, it sucks being a debbie downer all the time but it's just my way of coping with how often we get screwed. and it helps..That way anything more is just gravy. 

 

But i will offer some words of encouragement.  Some of the best storms we've seen im the south have been overperformers and last minute surprises.   It's rare that a big storm down here is forecasted in advance with certainty.  It's always a dance until the last minute.  And this storm has all the characteristics of a storm that can easily overperform. so it ain't over till it's over. Just don't expect it.

  Always be measured in your expectations.

 

I do like that almost everyone is getting in on some action this winter. Better than years past. Good luck to all

[Brick Tamland]

GFS doesn't have anything in NC except for the mountains right at the TN border. 

[dsaur]

23 minutes ago, suzook said:

There's still plenty of time for things to change. Sounds like people are thinking this is locked in place. 

My point forecast us up to 60 percent for snow, but the Thursday zr is gone.  No precip showing. Things are in such flux, it's crazy to worry about run to run changes. Maybe if  it wasn't potentially an historic storm. Maybe if there were more data and more supercomputers, but there aren't so things change run to run.

[PackGrad05]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

GFS doesn't have anything in NC except for the mountains right at the TN border. 

GFS has snow all along the coast, albeit light

[StantonParkHoya]

We just lost it. Storm is gone.

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

GFS has snow all along the coast, albeit light

OK, so there is a dusting on the beach. 

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We just lost it. Storm is gone.

Huh? It's on the NAM, Euro and Canadian. GFS is the only one that has it that suppressed. 

[PackGrad05]

Once again, the GFS stays flat and has the same track, but doesn't crank up enough to produce enough precipitation.  

 

[Upstate Tiger]

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We just lost it. Storm is gone.

Now we know we really have a legitimate winter storm on the way.  

[Tony Sisk]

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We just lost it. Storm is gone.

You think it might be a data glitch? Very odd

[suzook]

Yup, gfs and icon are keeping it suppressed again. Yikes.

[Silver Meteor]

26 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

For several years from 2008-2012 or so Greenville NC was the snow capital of NC outside the mountains

I moved from Wilmington to Greenville in 2013 and have been amazed by the lack of snow here, scant little more than I saw in Wilmington from 2003 to 2013. Am I cursed? 

[Regan]

There could be any number of reasons. In the scheme of things it could be nothing. People love the gfs when they love it, hug it when they shouldn’t, and hate it when they hate it. Manic. 

[suzook]

Just now, Regan said:

There could be any number of reasons. In the scheme of things it could be nothing. People love the gfs when they love it, hug it when they shouldn’t, and hate it when they hate it. Manic. 

Along with every other model. I think we need start looking at the nam later tomorrow to see what that is showing.

[StantonParkHoya]

5 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

I moved from Wilmington to Greenville in 2013 and have been amazed by the lack of snow here, scant little more than I saw in Wilmington from 2003 to 2013. Am I cursed? 

Yes. It used to snow 6+ inches without even trying there

[wncsnow]

Precip amounts have been decreasing on all the models not just as drastically as the GFS. Even the NAM was light precip for many. Weak sheared out systems is the norm this year. 

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, Regan said:

There could be any number of reasons. In the scheme of things it could be nothing. People love the gfs when they love it, hug it when they shouldn’t, and hate it when they hate it. Manic. 

GFS seems to be the least consistent. Euro can pick up a storm in the long range, then lose it, and then gradually come back to it. I know the NAM did well with the last storm here and showing me getting mostly sleet and the path of the system. 

[PackGrad05]

The GEFS is better and gets light coverage up to I-95....i notice it is also slower than other models

[Regan]

Watching the chatter over on X and consensus is basically chill out, this happens all the time, remember it’s the gfs, and wait in the NAM tomorrow night. 

[Brick Tamland]

Raleigh NWS has a great discussion. Still saying it's too early to know anything for certain yet.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 455 PM Saturday...

* Forecast confidence remains high for a continuation of well below
  average temperatures this period, maximized with departures from
  normal of 15-25 F mid-week.

* Forecast confidence is low regarding the northern extent of
  (wintry) precipitation across cntl-ern NC, as generally
  flat/suppressed/weak low pressure tracks from the Gulf of Mexico to
  well offshore the South and southern Middle Atlantic coasts Tue-
  early Wed.

A highly amplified mid/upr-level pattern will be characterized by a
ridge over the ern Pacific and mean troughs that will pivot across
the cntl-ern US. The first of those troughs, and most influential
for the threat of wintry precipitation (snow) into cntl NC, will be
a positively-tilted and at least partially phased trough that will
extend from the upr Great Lakes to the Southwest at 12Z Tue and
pivot across and offshore the South and srn Middle Atlantic through
Wed. It should be noted that the most-basal of those shortwave
perturbations just entered the North American RAOB network near
Annette Island and Yakutat, Alaska this morning. Further sampling of
this feature across wrn British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest
through 12Z Sunday may better resolve its presence and downstream
synoptic influence and ultimately decrease above average model
spread in solutions of its impact to srn US wintry weather Tue-Tue
night. The other shortwave perturbations forecast to comprise the
positive-tilt trough should also become better-resolved for model
initial conditions, as they dig sharply ssewd from the Northwest
Territories and Yukon to the cntl Canadian Prairies. Low amplitude
shortwave ridging will then progress across and offshore the Middle
and South Atlantic later Wed-Wed night, downstream of a trough that
will reload and pivot from the Great Plains and MS Valley to the
East Coast through Sat.

At the surface, Arctic high pressure will initially sprawl from the
cntl Great Basin to the Middle Atlantic, then gradually weaken as it
migrates ewd and becomes centered over the Middle Atlantic through
the end of the week. A frontal zone will be suppressed well-
southward across the sub-tropics, from the Gulf of Mexico to the
swrn N. Atlantic, along the srn/equatorward drape of the expansive
Arctic high and airmass through mid-week; and model agreement is
relatively high regarding only weak/flat frontal wave development
along that frontal zone from the Gulf of Mexico to offshore the
South Atlantic coast Tue-Tue night. While some models depict more
substantial deepening of the low as it tracks between Cape Hatteras
and Bermuda, any such development and deepening would be too late
and inconsequential for significant impacts to cntl NC. The
aforementioned re-loading of the trough aloft initially into the
cntl US may allow the surface frontal zone and subsequent
cyclogenesis to buckle poleward and nearer the Middle Atlantic and
srn New England coasts later in the week, with possible additional,
low confidence precipitation impacts into cntl NC.

The previously very wet solutions on the extreme nwrn edge of the
guidance envelope, led by the GEM and GEPS, have trended southward
and drier and now form a strong consensus cluster of guidance with
EPS solutions of the past couple of days.  While this cluster
appears to be a favored and reasonable solution for measurable snow
and low to moderate impacts across e-cntl NC, the much drier and swd-
suppressed GFS and GEFS solutions have support of the EC-AIFS and
produce very little snow into cntl and even sern NC. Forecast
confidence consequently remains below average at this time.

[Brick Tamland]

RAH did say for now it could be a low to moderate impact event here. Would be nice if the models didn't show such good storms for your location 7 days out only to turn into a mess. I would still like getting 1 to 2 inches of snow. But it looks like the Euro run overnight might have been a head fake and got everyone excited because the Euro was finally on board. But ever since then it and the other global models have been decreasing the totals. Canadian still has a nice storm, but it is also less with the totals. The NAM is the only hope now unless the others start changing tomorrow.

[frazdaddy]

So, Wildre’s back …