1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[Brick Tamland]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z EPS 10:1 looks amazingly good for many and even historic for deep SE! Ens maps like this in deep SE/Gulf coast almost unheard of:

 

Qpf:

That does look much better.

[Tacoma]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z EPS 10:1 looks amazingly good for many and even historic for deep SE! Ens maps like this in deep SE/Gulf coast almost unheard of:

 

Qpf:

can we please get that heavier snow shield about 70 miles west

 

[BornAgain13]

I saw where someone says the NBM are higher also because it counts in those higher ratios... Not sure how true that is or what?

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, QC_Halo said:

Can’t believe he was the one to start this thread. 

Why? People were telling me to start it yesterday. I had a feeling 10 days out this could be a big storm.

[PackGrad05]

Remember that on the NW edge of that shield, ratios will be BETTER than 10:1

[PackGrad05]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

I saw where someone says the NBM are higher also because it counts in those higher ratios... Not sure how true that is or what?

I saw that and I also saw that the new model data would not be in the NBM until 19Z

[Brick Tamland]

I think we'll see some waffling back and forth with the placement of the low and precip field until at least Monday.

[GaWx]

Just now, metalicwx367 said:

Don't let us down Euro.

GFS was all rain and temps in mid 30s for most of southern GA. UKMET same but warmer and less precip. 

Most recent AIFS and Graphcast were big ZR events based on 850s and SFC temps around 30F.

ICON was a step in the right direction, but not much precip.

Regardless of what this storm does or doesn’t do, the EPS is about as perfect as can be for us for 3.5 days out. Hope we get 1”+! This suggests 70-90% chance for our corridor!! Also, note 90%+ for ILM, MB, Charleston, Albany, Dothan, Pensacola, Mobile, Biloxi, and N.O.!!

[bankdawg]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z EPS members snow (excludes sleet/ZR): it is 10:1 rather than Kuchera. So, I’d take ~1/4 off for deep SE but still this is about the best ever for deep SE/Gulf coast. May not be next opportunity like this for many years to come! It may be finally our time to shine. Not a flake or pellet in 7 years. And maybe history about to be made?! We’ll see as this is still ~3.5 days out so not getting hopes up too high. Also, there’s the very real danger of a bad icestorm even into N FL!

 

@metallica470

@Awesomesauce81

@gtg947h

wow, every single one of those show it snowing here in the southern part of central GA!  never seen that on ensembles.  screenshot

[StantonParkHoya]

Euro Ens is the #1 id want in my back pocket 

[QC_Halo]

13 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Why? People were telling me to start it yesterday. I had a feeling 10 days out this could be a big storm.

You doubled down son…lol

[EarlGrey]

I bow my head in prayer.
 

Oh great frosty overlords, bless us with your icy confetti. I promise to shovel with a smile.  Just one snow day, please! 

[dsaur]

4 hours ago, suzook said:

ZR on Thurs? I am not seeing that anywhere? I hope we dont get ZR.

Just 20 percent chance.  It was snow last night.  I imagine the present system has to get done before Thur comes into focus. A follow up sys has been on the maps but last night was the first time it showed up on the point forecast.  The bitter air will have to mellow fast in the column to go from sn to zr in two days. I imagine it will be back to snow soon.  I was just glad to see frozen mentioned at all.

[dsaur]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Areas in SE GA/S SC that were ZR on 0Z CMC have sleet on 12Z CMC due to further SE track

 

Sleet, sleet, sleet...and you have to believe in wishes, Larry...and something about a roast chicken

[NCSU_Pi]

Too amped or too suppressed.

I think I know the official song of winter weather in the Triangle

I know what I want but I just don't know

how to go about getting it

[GaWx]

50 minutes ago, bankdawg said:

wow, every single one of those show it snowing here in the southern part of central GA!  never seen that on ensembles.  screenshot

I looked up Cordele, which looks like it is ~20 miles to the west of Rochelle, because they have good snow records back 90 years. Here are the only measurable snows there:

2/1973: 3.5”

2/2010: 1.5”

1/1935: 0.8”

12/1943: 0.5”

1/2018: 0.3”

 So, EPS is saying 90%+ chance for at least 3rd highest snow on record! And there’s ~40% chance to break the record if you can believe that!

 

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I looked up Cordele, which looks like it is ~20 miles to the west of Rochelle, because they have good snow records back 90 years. Here are the only measurable snows there:

2/1973: 3.5”

2/2010: 1.5”

1/1935: 0.8”

12/1943: 0.5”

1/2018: 0.3”

 So, EPS is saying 90%+ chance for at least 3rd highest snow on record!

 

I guess they were too far south in January 92.   There were some 6-8 inch amounts near FFC-MCN in that.  I still think for biggest snows right now I’d want to be a hair north of them 

[Bevo]

2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

Brad P just released a great video for those wanting more info about why it may or may not move northwest.  Has to do with the strength of the system.  If it doesn't get stronger, it will stay more south.

and he even mentioned CONSISTENCY with overall track of the system being a coastal runner

Actually is a pretty good vid ngl.

[CaryWx]

From the real mccoys

 

[Upstate Tiger]

Aww Guys you shouldn’t have.  My wife takes me to Cashiers Sapphire Valley for the weekend for my birthday. A nice relaxing horse ride in the snow through the Nantahala along  the Horse Pasture River.  And I get back to the room and find you all ordered me 1” of snow IMBY on the 12z Euro. Really, you guys are too much. 

[Silver Meteor]

Discussion for Eastern North Carolina covers two scenarios including a 20% possibility of blizzard conditions at Cape Hatteras:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MHX&issuedby=MHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[StantonParkHoya]

8 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Discussion for Eastern North Carolina covers two scenarios including a 20% possibility of blizzard conditions at Cape Hatteras:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MHX&issuedby=MHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Yeah, MHC using some pretty bold language on snow

[1bert1]

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

Remember that on the NW edge of that shield, ratios will be BETTER than 10:1

When I lived on Beech Mountain back in 2010-2012 we had snow ratios of 40 to 1  to 60 to 1 in some very cold NWFS events. The temp was below 20 degrees to about 5 degrees during these events. The winter of 2010-2011 Beech Mt got 160 plus inches of snow.

[wncsnow]

NAM is much more in line with other guidance this run. Still a bit more north 

[Brick Tamland]

NAM at 84 looks great. 

[BooneWX]

We’re moving towards consensus finally 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM at 84 looks great. 

You or anyone have frame before so we can see Georgia?  Thanks

[Brick Tamland]

RDPS at 84.

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

You or anyone have frame before so we can see Georgia?  Thanks

[olafminesaw]

20 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

We’re moving towards consensus finally 

Honestly kinda a relief to come to terms with the reality of just flurries to half an inch in these parts. Anything else is gravy! Better than being on the edge right to the end only to be on the outside looking in