1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[SnowDawg]

I'm just hoping for a decent finger of precip to deliver an inch or two of high ratio powder up this way. I'm fine with missing the bulk of this one for those that rarely have the chance to score one. 

[Tacoma]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z 84 RGEM is ~150 miles further S with the Gulf low vs the 0Z CMC 96 and precip shield is significantly further south along with it. Thus, I’m expecting the 12Z CMC to come in significantly south of the 0Z CMC with the precip/snow line/540 line, etc.

So much for the NW Trend some are hoping for

[Prismshine Productions]

6z CMC at 84 was similar to 0z but wetter

[digital snow]

WRAL claiming that the latest data is shifting everything NW. 

[kvegas-wx]

This cold press looks more than legit.  Looking at upstream temps in Chicago they dont even approach 32° again for 10 days with some below zero nights.  New Orleans LA is looking at some below freezing temps too.  This is certainly looking like suppression city right now for the interior SE crew.

[metalicwx367]

16 minutes ago, fig said:

Feels like it's me against the rest of the board with all of you wanting a NW trend and me down here in ILM just praying we don't end up with 34 degree rain

Nah I'm with you on that here in South Georgia. Very low confidence forecast though especially on precip type down here. 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

So much for the NW Trend some are hoping for

I don’t know about NW trend of model consensus stopping as 12Z Icon came in slightly N of its prior. But it may be more that the 12Z CMC trends south because CMC has been N of the others and is correcting itself. Also, Icon has been S of most others and was due to trend N.

[dogwoods]

5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

This cold press looks more than legit.  Looking at upstream temps in Chicago they dont even approach 32° again for 10 days with some below zero nights.  New Orleans LA is looking at some below freezing temps too.  This is certainly looking like suppression city right now for the interior SE crew.

I’m up in Madison, WI for a few days and the high on Monday is 3, with a low of -9… 

[GaWx]

Early maps suggest 12Z GFS will also come in a bit S of prior runs.

[PackGrad05]

When wral discussed “models” they are talking euro and American. Mainly euro. They put a lot of weight on euro.


.

[wncsnow]

GFS is going to be suppressed. 

[PackGrad05]

GFS is coming in line with euro. They are meeting in the middle


.

[franklin NCwx]

Absolutely no room for amplification at 500 on the GFS

[PackGrad05]

This is why I was very surprised that tv Mets were mentioning NW trend so much. It isn’t guaranteed in these events. This isn’t your average type of event

With that said models are good consensus now


.

[Snow dog]

29 minutes ago, fig said:

Feels like it's me against the rest of the board with all of you wanting a NW trend and me down here in ILM just praying we don't end up with 34 degree rain

I’m rooting for you guys!  We all say ‘my area gets screwed all the time’ but you guys truly never see a good storm, so I’d love to see y’all get hammered!

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

This is why I was very surprised that tv Mets were mentioning NW trend so much. It isn’t guaranteed in these events. This isn’t your average type of event

With that said models are good consensus now


.

 no they are not

[Brick Tamland]

GFS looked paltry with precip. 

[Met1985]

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

 no they are not

I thought I was losing it for a minute....

[PackGrad05]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

 no they are not

Yes they are.  At this range, they all show an eastern NC system.  Too early to even begin looking at specific amounts.  I'm talking about the track and who is impacted.

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Yes they are.  At this range, they all show an eastern NC system.  Too early to even begin looking at specific amounts.  I'm talking about the track and who is impacted.

You should really read more and post less   

[olafminesaw]

Yeah I do think the many competing pieces of energy adds complexity which tends to favor suppression (think of tropical season when a phase with the trough on models tends not to work out more often than not). At the same time, the expansion of the precip shield due to models failing to account for the mid level warmth sufficiently, pulls the other way allowing many to score even if the more suppressed storm track is what plays out. So the disagreement as to whether the NW trend is legit comes down to this tension between two factors affecting snow totals on a map

[Brick Tamland]

I don't know if they have a consensus with the track. Some are further inland and some are off the coast. A few hundred miles makes a big difference. The Canadian has a huge storm, the NAM looked to be going that way, the Euro jumped further NW last night but not as much as the Canadian is showing, and the GFS seems to be jumping back and forth as usaul now.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the Canadian is going to hold serve compared to previous runs.

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like the Canadian is going to hold serve compared to previous runs.

it ticked south 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like the Canadian is going to hold serve compared to previous runs.

CMC will be further SE than 0Z

[BornAgain13]

CMC is south but still gets moisture pretty far inland. 

[GaWx]

12Z CMC SE of 0Z

 

0Z CMC

[suzook]

That moisture being so far north of the low is odd.

[Brick Tamland]

[BornAgain13]

SE VA the winners on the CMC.