1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[Brick Tamland]

NAM at 72.

[suzook]

50 minutes ago, dsaur said:

My point forecast is now up to 50 percent snow for Tues. and the snow chance for Thurs is now chance of zr.

ZR on Thurs? I am not seeing that anywhere? I hope we dont get ZR.

[wncsnow]

It's the 84 hour NAM but it will turn heads 

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

It's the 84 hour NAM but it will turn heads 

Might as well throw this into the mix as well.

[BooneWX]

Just now, wncsnow said:

It's the 84 hour NAM but it will turn heads 

Waa overriding cold air + it’s trending less stout with the cold at the upper levels 

[wncsnow]

You can see the overruning "finger" 

[Brick Tamland]

NAM at 84 looks similar to the Canadian. A lot more NW than the GFS and Euro.

[wncsnow]

It's trending the PV further west too which amplifies it. It's not good obviously for our friends in S GA and SC. 

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Might as well throw this into the mix as well.

Looks like the Canadian. I am going to go back and look at last week's storm and see how the NAM played out from what it was showing 84 hrs out. Seems like it definitely nailed the warm nose and lack of precip.

[WXNewton]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM at 84 looks similar to the Canadian. A lot more NW than the GFS and Euro.

If the storm is anywhere close to that in real time, we should be pretty happy board wide.

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

Looks like the Canadian. I am going to go back and look at last week's storm and see how the NAM played out from what it was showing 84 hrs out. Seems like it definitely nailed the warm nose and lack of precip.

NAM crushed our dreams last week here with showing all the sleet we got instead of snow. 

[WXNewton]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

NAM crushed our dreams last week here with showing all the sleet we got instead of snow. 

Yeah it was never good for my area either, but in reality it played out very similar to what it showed. They snow lover in me didn't want to believe it, but in reality I should have put way more stock into it. 

[ncforecaster89]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

From what I read the 6z EPS went a little more SE from 0z. I guess it will continue to flip flop...

Here is the 10:1 snow mean.  

[Tacoma]

Yep the PV is trending west which allows our storm to become more amped and not suppresed.  Lots of time left here to watch.

[strongwxnc]

28 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's the 84 hour NAM but it will turn heads 

No doubt. Crazy overrunning. Of course normal end of run NAM disco applies here. 

[wncsnow]

The ICON still isn't there but trended north 

[SnowDawg]

Need to watch the interaction between our shortwave and the cutoff off the pacific coast as well. GFS is the most aggressive causing the weaker, kind of 2 part system, but most guidance ticked towards it at 6z. Not sure how that factors in with other changes, but something to watch nonetheless.

[wncsnow]

RGEM is actually south from previous runs but at the end of its time-frame 

[Brick Tamland]

RDPS at 84.

[franklin NCwx]

Rgem is a good run for the gulf coast

[Brick Tamland]

RGEM at 84.

 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

RGEM is actually south from previous runs but at the end of its time-frame 

This means the 12Z CMC should come in a little south of its 0Z with slightly lower thicknesses and a little further S snow line. Also, 12Z RGEM well south of NAM.

[StantonParkHoya]

Love a beautiful semi long duration overrunning event… so much better than bombs we have to worry when the warm nose is going to pop in

[fig]

Feels like it's me against the rest of the board with all of you wanting a NW trend and me down here in ILM just praying we don't end up with 34 degree rain

[Tony Sisk]

7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

RDPS at 84.

That is very far in the gulf

[NCSU_Pi]

1 minute ago, fig said:

Feels like it's me against the rest of the board with all of you wanting a NW trend and me down here in ILM just praying we don't end up with 34 degree rain

If we can't reel it in, I hope y'all get crushed!

[MD13]

2 minutes ago, fig said:

Feels like it's me against the rest of the board with all of you wanting a NW trend and me down here in ILM just praying we don't end up with 34 degree rain

I’m with you down here in CHS

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

That is very far in the gulf

The 12Z 84 RGEM is ~150 miles further S with the Gulf low vs the 0Z CMC 96 and precip shield is significantly further south along with it. Thus, I’m expecting the 12Z CMC to come in significantly south of the 0Z CMC with the precip/snow line/540 line, etc.

[GaWx]

Compare 12Z RGEM 84 with 0Z CMC 96: big diff!

12Z RGEM 84

0Z CMC 96 had the low/precip much further N and related to that the low was 4 mb stronger/more amped 

[kvegas-wx]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z 84 RGEM is ~150 miles further S with the Gulf low vs the 0Z CMC 96 and precip shield is significantly further south along with it. Thus, I’m expecting the 12Z CMC to come in significantly south of the 0Z CMC with the precip/snow line/540 line, etc.

Afternoon showers for Fort Myers to Jax if this trend keeps up!  Ugh!