1/22-1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[Brick Tamland]

The Euro jumped on the hype train last night. Looks like there is real potential for a winter storm next week for a lot of folks in the SE. Here's to positive vibes and reeling this one in. 

 

 

Let's do this!

 

 

[BornAgain13]

Let's go Brick!! 

[BornAgain13]

As soon as someone gets the 6z EPS, please post and please let it hold from 0z lol

[scottk]

Seems like I-95 in NE SC may not be melting all the snow this time…

[Brick Tamland]

0z EPS snow depth mean.

[lilj4425]

We ride to Minas Tirith. 

[hrtsdsn]

Let's go!!!   

So that report above, the CLT area is just 2.5 inches am i reading that right??

 

[BornAgain13]

From what I read the 6z EPS went a little more SE from 0z. I guess it will continue to flip flop...

[Brick Tamland]

The last RGEM looked promising.

[BornAgain13]

The 6z CMC. The Canadian continues to be aggressive. Hopefully we see more guidance do this today and tonight ....

[Brick Tamland]

One thing is for sure, the Canadian has remained consistent. 

[sarcean]

Will be lucky to get an inch or two in Charlotte out of this but it has to better than last week

Rooting for a strong NW trend this weekend 

[ILM2714]

Appears like ILM is going to get something. Is it too early to get the kids excited?

[Met1985]

NW trend is going to jackpot the apps while yall smoke on sleet. 

[wncsnow]

AI euro gives nobody snow unless your a fish 

[dsaur]

My point forecast is now up to 50 percent snow for Tues. and the snow chance for Thurs is now chance of zr.

[strongwxnc]

 

Alan first thoughts 

[rawlee]

16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

AI euro gives nobody snow unless your a fish 

My guy has been bittercasting hard this week.

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, rawlee said:

My guy has been bittercasting hard this week.

Call it what you want I'm not lying. 

[Tacoma]

17 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

 

Alan first thoughts 

I still think the snow shield gets into the mountains pretty good by the time all is said and done.

[gwlee7]

Good morning SE Forum!!

This one seems to shaping up nicely for some of you.    One thing that seems to be in your favor is that the snow breaking out in TX late Monday/Tuesday morning is expected to be considerably South of DFW than the last system.   And if I am reading the maps correctly (an area in need of improvement for me) you have HP in the right place this time.    
 

i grew up In and lived in the Rocky Mount NC area for most of my life and that looks like a good spot but, I am rooting for all of you.   Bring it on home guys!! 

[Joe Clark]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Call it what you want I'm not lying. 

Might be right. From our storm last week:

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, Joe Clark said:

Might be right. From our storm last week:

In lieu of my takeaways, the Euro AI has been very wobbly for this storm and not nearly as consistent 

[Snow dog]

Upstate SC looks to on the outside looking in, so I’m REALLY rooting for the midlands/coastal folks to score big!

Reel it in guys!!

[PackGrad05]

The euro AI is not handling the system well upstream. It did the same with the last system. Upstream perturbations resulted in downstream errors. This is common with AI models.


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[olafminesaw]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

The euro AI is not handling the system well upstream. It did the same with the last system. Upstream perturbations resulted in downstream errors. This is common with AI models.


.

I think it's great for long range, not so good for short and medium range. 

[Met1985]

11 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

In lieu of my takeaways, the Euro AI has been very wobbly for this storm and not nearly as consistent 

Honestly no model has been consistent with this thing.  I still believe everything is on the board still. 

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Honestly no model has been consistent with this thing.  I still believe everything is on the board still. 

The Canadian has been pretty consistent. 

[PackGrad05]

I can go ahead and tell you what will happen. All the models are being consistent with their means. Yes there are a few outliers but we have good consensus.

This will be an eastern NC storm with the transition line somewhere around wake county. Take your typical NC storm and flip it horizontally and there you go.
Coast will also see mixing due to warm nose close to the low.


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[Upstatesnowbird]

20 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Upstate SC looks to on the outside looking in, so I’m REALLY rooting for the midlands/coastal folks to score big!

Reel it in guys!!

Right now your right but I hope your wrong. Cold suppression and no nw trend doesn’t happen often. Hoping we still get something out of this. Would love that NW look today or tomorrow to bring that heavy precip into our neck of the woods. Seems like upstate is always on the outside either it’s to far north or now to far south ,thanks guys for breaking down these maps so we can understand what’s going on .