1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[purduewx80]

NWS Atlanta will do an 18Z sounding. Most of the 12Z models appear to have initialized too moist at 850mb, and it still appears to be a struggle to saturate looking at the higher scans from BMX and FFC radars. 

[NorthHillsWx]

RAH making tweaks to warnings. We’ll see if advisories expand westward

[DeltaPilot]

As a pilot ive seen some pretty crazy stuff with regards to snowfall and coverage. From higher altitudes its hard to fathom how the line can be extremely abrupt. Like someone painted the earth with

a brush.

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, DeltaPilot said:

As a pilot ive seen some pretty crazy stuff with regards to snowfall and coverage. From higher altitudes its hard to fathom how the line can be extremely abrupt. Like someone painted the earth with

a brush.

If someone had a picture... We would all be really thankful..... 

[wake4est]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RAH making tweaks to warnings. We’ll see if advisories expand westward

the afd this morning said that us-1 east should monitor for likely forecast changes and upgraded watches/warnings.

[MHCWEATHER]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Really think the triangle is in a great spot to break the 1” snow drought 

Snowball fight in North Hills tonight?  I'm near Honey Baked Ham off Six Forks... 

[KrummWx]

1 minute ago, MHCWEATHER said:

Snowball fight in North Hills tonight?  I'm near Honey Baked Ham off Six Forks... 

I'm right by Duke Raleigh, count me in

[StantonParkHoya]

11 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

How the heck can New Bern get 8" with Greenville up the road only 2"? I can't imagine a gradient like that here on the coastal plain for such a short distance but of course anything's possible. When's the last time you got 8" down there? 

See 1989

[wake4est]

RAP is lookin Mighty Fine

[SnowGoose69]

MSY  211700 METAR 211653Z 01015G24KT 1/8SM PSN FZFG VV007 M03/M03 A3055 RMK        AO2 PK WND 36026/1636 SLP349 SNINCR 2/3 P0004 T10281033 RVRNO

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, MHCWEATHER said:

Snowball fight in North Hills tonight?  I'm near Honey Baked Ham off Six Forks... 

 

1 minute ago, KrummWx said:

I'm right by Duke Raleigh, count me in

I’m super close to both. I am off six forks/millbrook behind the food lion 

[Brick Tamland]

One good thing about the storm already is my son's basketball team that I coach had their game canceled for tonight, and we were probably going to be without our best player.

[MHCWEATHER]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

See 1989

I’m from MHC and almost got stranded at my friends. Good thing his dad had a Bronco or I’d been celebrating Christmas at the wrong address.

18” of concrete was sweet!

[MHCWEATHER]

28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 

I’m super close to both. I am off six forks/millbrook behind the food lion 

Well shoot, I’m on Windel. Maybe I can hit you w/out leaving my driveway 

[Brick Tamland]

[digital snow]

WRAL just upped totals at noon 2-3 in Raleigh and 1-2 NW 

[Justicebork]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 

I’m super close to both. I am off six forks/millbrook behind the food lion 

I'm off St. Mary's near Glenwood Ave.  Hopefully the precip line doesn't set up between our group.

[Thrasher Fan]

20 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

NWS Atlanta will do an 18Z sounding. Most of the 12Z models appear to have initialized too moist at 850mb, and it still appears to be a struggle to saturate looking at the higher scans from BMX and FFC radars. 

To elaborate...

288
FXUS62 KFFC 211620
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1120 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025


.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

This morning the main question has been where will the dry air win
out. We are doing an 18z sounding to get a better picture of
this line and will have more of an update as that comes in.
Currently there is a deep layer of dry air at 850mb but our
dendritic growth zone is almost saturated at this point. We have
been receiving reports of flurries despite this and are seeing a
potential moisture surge coming in from Alabama. This along with
the 12z models coming in gives us a little more confidence that
the 850mb layer will moisten up but we will know more with this
sounding. Have just slightly upped snowfall totals to account for
this trend but only by a couple tenths of an inch. Will keep an
eye on that though.

&&

[SnowGoose69]

Can see its snowing out over the Gulf right now on this camera

 

 

https://hiltonpensacolabeach.com/beach-cam/

[CaryWx]

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Is that assuming 10:1 ratios only?

[wake4est]

My guess is that RAH will extend WSWs west to US-1 in the early afternoon.

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Is that assuming 10:1 ratios only?

No, that's the Kuchera. It's showing more than the 10:1 ratio.

[suzook]

Nice thing about the storm for me, was all schools and Govt offices closed. Made my trip to airport earlier to pick my in-laws up a breeze. Roads were dead.

[Stebaney]

I’m super close to both. I am off six forks/millbrook behind the food lion 

I work at Millbrook HS but live in Knightdale so I might see more snow than you.


.

[wake4est]

1 minute ago, Stebaney said:

I work at Millbrook HS but live in Knightdale so I might see more snow than you.


.

Well, pretty sure you won't see school tomorrow. 

[suzook]

Been under "snow" according to the radar for a couple hours now. Hopefully it eventually saturates enough for flakes. You definitely can see a sharp cut off with I20 and north of it.

[NorthHillsWx]

The “snow hole” on ATL radar is starting to shrink, implying we are seeing a more Rapid moistening of the atmosphere and getting closer to them seeing flakes

[sarcean]

Still very dry air over central and west NC. Hope it fills in within 3-4 hours. Alot of virga going on.

[GaWx]

Montgomery, AL, had light snow just start. It is increasing in Hattiesburg, MS, and continues heavy in McComb and N.O. At Mobile it started 3 hours ago. Pensacola NAS just stated getting flurries at 11AM EST with 28 and DP of 20. An hour earlier it was 32/8.

[wxdawg10]

11 minutes ago, wake4est said:

My guess is that RAH will extend WSWs west to US-1 in the early afternoon.

They have PTSD from getting burned by past storms for being bullish.  They wont pull the trigger until the last minute