1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[neatlburbwthrguy]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

1.5 hours ago it was looking like ATL could have snow before noon. And now you two both think it probably won’t snow at all?

I still think it will snow, I was just saying what TWC said.  @SnowGoose69 what are your thoughts on ATL?

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, neatlburbwthrguy said:

I still think it will snow, I was just saying what TWC said.  @SnowGoose69 what are your thoughts on ATL?

I really doubt much happens N of I-20.  I think from there to the airport could see a half inch and definitely the towns S of ATL could see 1-1.5

[GaWx]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I really doubt much happens N of I-20.  I think from there to the airport could see a half inch and definitely the towns S of ATL could see 1-1.5

Do you have a good feel for about when S of I-20 would likely get their up to 1/2”?

[DeltaPilot]

We keep getting little bouts of flurries here. Very light and usually lasts about 5-10 minutes. Happening since about 930 or so this am. Its trying, but the column is still too dry.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you have a good feel for about when S of I-20 would likely get their up to 1/2”?

I'd say 2-6pm

[Alfoman]

Looking at super-res reflectivity - the first thing you want to see if you are in ATL is the virga create a giant circle around the radar site (which is happening now). Next you will see that shield slowly  enclose on itself as the column moistens. Likely still a few hours away from getting closer to that - the question then becomes how far north the band sets up once returns equal ground truth. Still think half an inch could be possible for inside the perimeter

 

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Latest RAP

That’s a big uptick here. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'd say 2-6pm

Thanks. Fwiw, Greenville, AL, which is S of Montgomery, has snow that started a little while ago. Only official station N of Mobile area with snow. But that’s still pretty far south.

[StantonParkHoya]

New Bern looking golden

[PennyForYourThoughts]

Latest HRRR model has Pensacola at 9 inches.   

[Brick Tamland]

HRRR at 18. Still snowing at the coast.

[Tony Sisk]

37 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Been in this exact spot in NOLA many times….but not like this!

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=bourbonstreet

beautiful!

[NorthHillsWx]

Here’s a ground report from Lafayette from my family:

6-8” already. Just had thundersnow! Cannot see houses across the street. 2 foot drifts around house. Pics look like full on blizzard. Wish I could post them. 
 

They have a lot of snow to come. Might crack 10”

[Tony Sisk]

22 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

Looking at super-res reflectivity - the first thing you want to see if you are in ATL is the virga create a giant circle around the radar site (which is happening now). Next you will see that shield slowly  enclose on itself as the column moistens. Likely still a few hours away from getting closer to that - the question then becomes how far north the band sets up once returns equal ground truth. Still think half an inch could be possible for inside the perimeter

 

My only concern would be...once the atmosphere gets saturated....will the precip already moved south and east.  That goes for my neck of the woods in the Upstate of SC as well.

[yotaman]

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

New Bern looking golden

I sure hope so 

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Here’s a ground report from Lafayette from my family:

6-8” already. Just had thundersnow! Cannot see houses across the street. 2 foot drifts around house. Pics look like full on blizzard. Wish I could post them. 
 

They have a lot of snow to come. Might crack 10”

Wild. The radar is amazing for NO. 

[MHCWEATHER]

God, I wish I didn't have so much work and would drive to my roots in Carteret County.  They are gonna get pasted.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Wild. The radar is amazing for NO. 

Yep. It’s a firehose into NO

[USCG RS]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep. It’s a firehose into NO

New Orleans is getting crushed. 

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

New Orleans is getting crushed. 

Hope that will translate further north.

[chapelhill]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

New Orleans is getting crushed. 

https://youtu.be/A1UD36ucfkc

 

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

New Orleans is getting crushed. 

And here we can barely get a dusting in three years. Makes no sense. 

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

And here we can barely get a dusting in three years. Makes no sense. 

Weather is a fickle mistress

[btownheel]

That’s a big uptick here. 

That shield’s going to end up a bit NW of that I bet. Like it virtually always does:


.

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Hope that will translate further north.

You appear to be right on the cusp. Given the pattern and movement, I would not be surprised if you get a moderate hit. 

 

[wake4est]

RAH just put Cumberland and Sampson County under a WS Warning.

[Silver Meteor]

52 minutes ago, yotaman said:

8" for my area. I'll take it.

How the heck can New Bern get 8" with Greenville up the road only 2"? I can't imagine a gradient like that here on the coastal plain for such a short distance but of course anything's possible. When's the last time you got 8" down there? 

[GaWx]

McComb, MS, in far S MS just N of LA border 100 miles NNW of N.O. started snowing at 9AM EST and went to heavy snow (1/4 mile vis) at 11AM!

Comparing that to latest models: HRRR, Euro, NAM 3km, and Icon significantly too light while CMC and GFS closer to reality.

[USCG RS]

Just now, Silver Meteor said:

How the heck can New Bern get 8" with Greenville up the road only 2"? I can't imagine a gradient like that here on the coastal plain for such a short distance but of course anything's possible. When's the last time you got 8" down there? 

Not with this storm. No. 

[MHCWEATHER]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think Wake county gets 1-2” tonight. Triad will be tricky with the edge but I think you go from no accumulation to 1” pretty quick then you have a large area of 1-2” before the coastal plain increase

1-2" will be solid.  And nearly every flake will stick.  Gonna be like Feb 25th, 2015 storm but w/ a later start.  Cars were stranded all over the Triangle...