1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[donsutherland1]

Some 1" amounts through 6:50 am CST:

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said:

How did the HRRR do? That 12Z run is trying to give us nearly 10 inches of snow. Most likely overdone but it also has no freezing rain. Just straight to sleet and then all moderate to heavy snow. Euro also has barely any freezing rain. It just has half the QPF that the high-res models are showing. 

 

Our winter storm warning amount has increased from 1 inch of snow to 2 inches with 0.10 of ice on top of that.

6Z HRRR did better in Houston than Euro, GFS, and NAM with it lighter there (0.15”). It also got Baton Rouge almost perfectly with 0.03” vs actual of 0.04”. So, better than GFS/Euro in Baton Rouge.

[ILM2714]

TWC app has Wilmington getting 6.5 inches…

[GaWx]

 Any guesses as to when measurable snow will start in Atlanta area? Should folks go to work for 1/2 day or is there risk of 1/29/2014 snow jam again? That’s what happened then. Schools went for 1/2 day and they got stuck at 11-11:30AM or so. I had told my sis to keep kids home, which she did, then based on radar/obs. She was thankful. Is today going to be repeat?

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, wake4est said:

I am ready and waiting for the NAM to do some nasty things for us. Bring it.

[wncsnow]

NAM is back east

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, ILM2714 said:

TWC app has Wilmington getting 6.5 inches…

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Reports I'm seeing suggests accumulations are increasing and virtually all of the freeway systems are snow covered. Snow is covering Seawall Blvd in Galveston at this time. A friend in Beaumont is reporting 3 inches and moderate snow. Jefferson County is under it's first Blizzard Warning since records have been kept back to the late 1800's,

Houston (EarthCam):

 

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, wncsnow said:

NAM is back east

[neatlburbwthrguy]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Any guesses as to when measurable snow will start in Atlanta area? Should folks go to work for 1/2 day or is there risk of 1/29/2014 snow jam again? That’s what happened then. Schools went for 1/2 day. I had told my sis to keep kids home then based on radar/obs.

Radar returns look good to the west of ATL I think they could be in for a surprise mid to late morning

[Stebaney]

Raleigh folks must be asleep.  Y'all gonna get sticking snow later this evening.  Check out the NAM

Oh I’ve been awake since 2am. I have RSV and can’t breathe so this storm is the only good feeling I’ve had in the last 5 days.

[purduewx80]

6th driest 850 dewpoint on record at the Atlanta office this morning, last night’s was the 4th driest. gonna take a bit to saturate. 

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

NAM is back east

It looks like it’s snowing in Wilkseboro. Are you out further?

[olafminesaw]

[GaWx]

I suggested my sis tell my bro in law, who just left for work, to return home out of caution just in case. Don’t know when he’s planning to come home. He works at airport and lives near Emory Univ. All schools closed there today unlike the 1/2 day they had in 2014, thank goodness.

 Good advice to ask him to come back home now?

[ST21]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Would be nice to get at least dusting up here north of Atlanta. I’ve seen it go from nothing to .3 inches. I’d take that, all depends if these northern precip returns can reach the ground

[neatlburbwthrguy]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I suggested my sis tell my bro in law, who just left for work, to return home out of caution just in case. Don’t know when he’s planning to come home. He works at airport and lives near Emory Univ. All schools closed there today unlike the 1/2 day they had in 2014, thank goodness.

 Good advice to ask him to come back home now?

Yes, I think so.  Not sure how accurate the KFFC radar is but those returns moving into ATL soon should saturate the atmosphere

[tarheelwx]

All the way up here in Greensboro, it looks like flakes could fly at any moment.  Disappointing to see the NAM pull back east.  Maybe we'll get a flurry!

TW

[Brick Tamland]

NAM really increased totals further NW in NC. 

[tarheelwx]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM really increased totals further west in NC. 

 

You must not be comparing to the 06z.  Totals to the west dropped a fair amount. 

TW

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, tarheelwx said:

You must not be comparing to the 06z.  Totals to the west dropped a fair amount. 

TW

I didn't know the run before had that much in NC. I am surprised no one posted it earlier.

[Justicebork]

FV3 will excite just about everybody.

[wxmoose]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

I didn't know the run before had that much in NC. I am surprised no one posted it earlier.

Trend for last few runs: 

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, wxmoose said:

Trend for last few runs: 

Looks like the last run settled in the middle of the previous two.

[wncsnow]

16 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It looks like it’s snowing in Wilkseboro. Are you out further?

The nam did consolidate/move east compared to 06z. Those west of 85 didn't have much chance anyways. 

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, Justicebork said:

FV3 will excite just about everybody.

 

[codfishsnowman]

So excited for you guys down there, some folks will see some of the best a coastal snowstorm has to offer...at least briefly. I think someone will get close to a foot

[wncsnow]

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM really increased totals further NW in NC. 

Delete

[wbhardy]

30 minutes ago, wake4est said:

I am ready and waiting for the NAM to do some nasty things for us. Bring it.

Ready here in Wendell Falls as well!

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

FV3 will excite just about everybody.

NAM looks better.