ncforecaster89 Posted Sunday at 04:11 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:11 AM 18 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Take a drink! Not necessary. But thanks anyway. I’ve been doing this for more than 30 years. As such, I know better than to put too much emphasis on any particular solution at these ranges. I was making an objective factual statement that we are just now entering the critical 24 hour period where the respective deterministic guidance typically builds a greater consensus because of the influx of actual in-situ data via sampling of the energy out W. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Sunday at 04:12 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:12 AM Just now, wncsnow said: Canadian is terrible for ENC. It went from a monster storm for all of NC to hardly anything for NC in less than 24 hours and only 72 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 04:13 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:13 AM I know folks hate any sort of phasing or juiced up lows but the reality is that you sort of need it desperately when you’re unloading Siberian air ahead of the energy. Yep, some are going to see waa in those scenarios but these weak, northern stream systems just aren’t it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted Sunday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:14 AM 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Once again the models fooled us. Really thought this was going to be a big storm here with what all the models were showing a couple days ago besides the Euro. Then the Euro came on board last night and I thought that was the final piece to the puzzle. This morning the local mets were talking about the NW trend after the Euro made the NW jump. But then after the Euro joined the other models, they started going further and further south, and the Euro followed. Less than 24 hours and what looked like a big storm for a lot of folks went to just a storm for those right on the beach, and this within 72 hours of when the storm is supposed to be here. This is a kick in the guts after 3 years of not having any real snow. Maybe a decent storm will come along this winter. But I am feeling more and more like being on here and following the models is just a waste of time. It really doesn't matter because it's not like it affects what happens. Whatever happens is going to happen, and maybe it's better to just let it happen and not try to see what's going to happen with the models and everything days and weeks before. It's always better to.be surprised anyway than to be hopeful for a storm because it looks good on the models only for it to fall apart. Predicted brick would say this a week ago 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Sunday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:14 AM I’m still very happy with where things are. Blend of models and EPS looks good for my area. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM Just now, franklin NCwx said: Predicted brick would say this a week ago Do.you want a cookie? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM Almost every system this winter has fallen apart on approach to our neck of the woods. Even this mornings light rain storm fell apart and sheared out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Sunday at 04:16 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:16 AM 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Do.you want a cookie? A beer please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted Sunday at 04:18 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:18 AM 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: It went from a monster storm for all of NC to hardly anything for NC in less than 24 hours and only 72 hours out. Bad sign to be honest and is likely a direct result of the aforementioned ingestion of actual in-situ data. It’s not too unusual to see such adjustments in the 60-84 hour range for that very reason. Hence, why I stated we’ve entered the critical 24 hour period for potential significant adjustments and usually a greater consensus amongst the deterministic guidance. Being that I live near Wilmington, NC, I’m going to take that “drink” @calculus1offered a few minutes ago! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Sunday at 04:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:23 AM Weather track first call . 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted Sunday at 04:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:32 AM 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Weather track first call . That’s generous. Everyone else is panting into paper bags. I’d like to see this happen here in Wake. Same time I’d be happy with an inch. Even a half. It’ll stick. It’s white. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted Sunday at 04:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:45 AM Thoughts on New Orleans snow chances? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Sunday at 04:50 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:50 AM 4 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said: Thoughts on New Orleans snow chances? They are likely on the southern end of the best snow. Baton Rouge looks like 6-10". Probably a lot of sleet and some zr in Nawlins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted Sunday at 04:57 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:57 AM 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: They are likely on the southern end of the best snow. Baton Rouge looks like 6-10". Probably a lot of sleet and some zr in Nawlins Dang. I’m hoping they get at least 1-2” down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted Sunday at 04:59 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:59 AM 49 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Once again the models fooled us. Really thought this was going to be a big storm here with what all the models were showing a couple days ago besides the Euro. Then the Euro came on board last night and I thought that was the final piece to the puzzle. This morning the local mets were talking about the NW trend after the Euro made the NW jump. But then after the Euro joined the other models, they started going further and further south, and the Euro followed. Less than 24 hours and what looked like a big storm for a lot of folks went to just a storm for those right on the beach, and this within 72 hours of when the storm is supposed to be here. This is a kick in the guts after 3 years of not having any real snow. Maybe a decent storm will come along this winter. But I am feeling more and more like being on here and following the models is just a waste of time. It really doesn't matter because it's not like it affects what happens. Whatever happens is going to happen, and maybe it's better to just let it happen and not try to see what's going to happen with the models and everything days and weeks before. It's always better to.be surprised anyway than to be hopeful for a storm because it looks good on the models only for it to fall apart. We .. well most ... LOVE snow and other weather, but this is why it is magical when it actually comes together, not to mention historic. This isn't quite cooked yet, though admittedly its going that way. What I will say, though, is that this type of unadulterated cold is always going to lead to the chance of suppression and having the southern stream out of reach. That is why being on the boards is actually worth it in my opinion: learning and understanding what to expect and how to read through the models which can mislead us. Models are wonderful pieces of technology, but we have seen time and time again they are nothing more than tools who like to play fantasy at times and when models don't never fit into the overall pattern, they need to be highly scrutinized. That withstanding, the Eastern United States is in a great pattern. If not this time, there will be more chances and that's not because of models, it's pattern recognition. Will we cash in? Who knows. But at least we're in the game. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 05:35 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:35 AM 0Z Euro: Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted Sunday at 05:51 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:51 AM Wow, that euro run was depressing. I guess the cold push is really that stout…. Stay warm everyone, goodnight…Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted Sunday at 06:15 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:15 AM oh well storm cancel. Got all hyped up for a big letdown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted Sunday at 06:16 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:16 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 06:22 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:22 AM Looking at the last 5 Euro runs, one can see the Gulf to SW Atlantic low has been trending weaker while the center of the Arctic high has been trending eastward. Despite the amounts having come down some, the 0Z is still as modeled a big/historic hit for near and on the coast and the 0Z EPS is supportive see below). But if the low keeps trending weaker, this could easily end up minor even there. After all, getting an historic hit has to be exceedingly difficult by its definition. I thought KCHS forecasting 2-4” (extremely rare) three days in advance was quite bold and risky. The Euro is the only major 0Z global op that is giving the area that much per Kuchera. Uk, GFS, and Icon have only light precip at best. 0Z CMC is only other one close as it’s got 1-3” Kuchera, but it has overall been trending drier. 0Z EPS 10:1 (I’d reduce it 1/3 on SE side): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 07:29 AM Share Posted Sunday at 07:29 AM “If you’re looking for the extremes of meteorology, this is really the bee’s knees” ”If you’re a weather geek, it’s one heck of a week!” -Joe Bastardi 1/18/25 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted Sunday at 08:09 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:09 AM 35 minutes ago, GaWx said: “If you’re looking for the extremes of meteorology, this is really the bee’s knees” ”If you’re a weather geek, it’s one heck of a week!” -Joe Bastardi 1/18/25 There are kids in Fla who will see their first snow, and make life long memories, so it's hardly a fail for them. Maybe some kid is standing by the family car ready to go to school and the clouds will pour sleet down on them, and they'll be forever changed. Not many hills in Fla though, or S Ga. And some will get the bejeebers scared out of them by zr, but it's still a memory down the road. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 09:13 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:13 AM The model consensus has coldest 850s moving into the upper Midwest/N Plains on Mon at an astoundingly cold -36 to -38C! Those who closely follow 850s know that that intensity of cold is not seen often! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Sunday at 10:25 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:25 AM 6 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Once again the models fooled us. Really thought this was going to be a big storm here with what all the models were showing a couple days ago besides the Euro. Then the Euro came on board last night and I thought that was the final piece to the puzzle. This morning the local mets were talking about the NW trend after the Euro made the NW jump. But then after the Euro joined the other models, they started going further and further south, and the Euro followed. Less than 24 hours and what looked like a big storm for a lot of folks went to just a storm for those right on the beach, and this within 72 hours of when the storm is supposed to be here. This is a kick in the guts after 3 years of not having any real snow. Maybe a decent storm will come along this winter. But I am feeling more and more like being on here and following the models is just a waste of time. It really doesn't matter because it's not like it affects what happens. Whatever happens is going to happen, and maybe it's better to just let it happen and not try to see what's going to happen with the models and everything days and weeks before. It's always better to.be surprised anyway than to be hopeful for a storm because it looks good on the models only for it to fall apart. lol. the only person the models fooled was you. everyone else here was cautious. i hope you remember all this next time a storm is modeled. for your own good. You live in NC. this is what happens. accept it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Sunday at 10:33 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:33 AM 6z is OTS and isnt even that cold. This sucks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Sunday at 10:43 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:43 AM The overnight model runs must have been really bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Sunday at 10:52 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:52 AM 8 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: The overnight model runs must have been really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Sunday at 11:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:02 AM The all mighty "king" Euro bows down and caves in spectacular fashion to the GFS..the real king? knew it was over when people started model hugging the CMC as the great beacon of hope. oh well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted Sunday at 11:19 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:19 AM Why do so many live and die by praising or blaming computer models? The weather is going to do what it does, right? What did our weather experts of yesterday use to follow storms? Having so many computer models just adds confusion and bad information for the public. Am I wrong? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted Sunday at 11:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:28 AM The FFC in GA has issued a Winter Storm Watch. Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Paulding-Cobb-North Fulton- Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-Carroll-Douglas- South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-Newton-Morgan-Greene- Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-Spalding-Henry-Butts- Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar- Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot- Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee- Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens- Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge- Telfair-Wheeler-Montgomery-Toombs- Including the cities of Soperton, Franklin, Hawkinsville, Columbus, Decatur, Covington, Montezuma, Marietta, Atlanta, Sparta, Vidalia, Gray, Homer, Monticello, Warrenton, Eatonton, Ellaville, Talbotton, Toomsboro, Winder, Sandersville, Cumming, Dublin, Vienna, Alamo, Griffin, Pine Mountain, Greensboro, GIbson, West Point, Swainsboro, Mcrae, Eastman, Wrightsville, Athens, Madison, Jackson, Louisville, Newnan, Lawrenceville, Fort Moore, Fort Valley, Buena Vista, Watkinsville, Monroe, Crawfordville, Mount Vernon, Preston, Zebulon, Washington, Comer, East Point, Cochran, Dallas, Gainesville, Jeffersonville, Stockbridge, Cordele, Milledgeville, Abbeville, Macon, Forsyth, Douglasville, Lumpkin, Barnesville, Manchester, Americus, Riverdale, Warner Robins, Crawford, Peachtree City, Commerce, Conyers, Carrollton, Butler, Thomaston, and Roberts 330 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Periods of snow that could be moderate to heavy at times. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches possible. Light sleet and freezing rain will be possible in portions of east central Georgia late Tuesday night. Ice accumulations less then 0.1 inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central, northeast, northwest, southeast, and west central Georgia. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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