1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[Regan]

Raleigh NC

[scottk]

NE SC has been stuck in a dry slot most of the night and now that it has filled in, it’s very light. They had upped our forecast to like 3-5” but I’m not seeing it on the radar at this point. 
 

Am I wrong?

[BooneWX]

Congrats to all of my weather brethren down east. The radar looks glorious. I dream of a day that solid green returns and sub 32 temps grace my life but until then, I’ll live vicariously through you guys (before you say it, yes we had a foothill event a few weeks ago but nobody is claiming that disgusting little sleet fest), carry on. 

[goldman75]

Myrtle beach just got bumped up from 2-4inches to 4-6.  Sleet stayed off shore better than expected

[AirNelson39]

21 degrees and moderate to heavy snow in eastern NC is such a nice treat.  Not very often we get those conditions after 20+ hours below freezing with another 36+ hours below freezing.  

[MDsnowPRO]

5 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

Myrtle beach just got bumped up from 2-4inches to 4-6.  Sleet stayed off shore better than expected

Weather channel has Myrtle beach at 8-12”. For what it’s worth. 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

Myrtle beach just got bumped up from 2-4inches to 4-6.  Sleet stayed off shore better than expected

Yes I see the hrrr increased amounts too.  Looks like 6 to 9 for my parents in Conway 

[Shenanagins1091]

Final total from Gulf Shores, AL

 

[Brick Tamland]

That was fun. When's the next one?

[accountingdawg2012]

I believe we checked in at right around 6 inches here in Albany, GA.  My in-laws live in Lee County right next door and measured 8.5 inches at their house.  I haven't seen snow like this since I was in college at UGA in 2009 in Athens and we got a stalled winter storm over the town and it dumped 9 inches in rapid succession. 

The biggest issue we are going to have is we won't get above freezing except for about 4-5 hours today and we have a foretasted low of 12 degrees tonight so anything that melts is going to absolutely freeze back.  I'm more worried about the rapid drop in temps tonight than I was the storm that came through - and it looks like we won't have a night above freezing until Sunday.  The arctic air that came in with this system is no joke and I'd like it to go home now.

[GaWx]

On 1/21/2025 at 1:38 PM, GaWx said:

 Thanks for your insight! Based on the 12Z models, I agree 100%. And regardless, all of the models have increased qpf substantially! For our corridor, Euro is on the low side with 0.65-0.8”. 17Z HRRR is 0.85-1”. ICON and CMC are 0.9-1”. The others are 1-1.25”!
 
 The variance in 850s from model to model strongly is affecting predominant precip types (Kuchera snow except Icon):

-The ICON and NAM, which have <0.7” of SN,  have 850s mainly +1 to +2C favoring IP/ZR. NAM has 1-2” of IP and 0.55-0.80” of ZR as it has ~1.1-1.2” total qpf. ICON doesn’t show IP or ZR, but it would have to be quite high considering the 0.9-1” qpf!

-CMC is in between with 0 to +1C 850s till going <0C late. It has ~3.5-4” of SN/IP with ~1.5-2” of IP. It has only ~0.05” of ZR.

-Euro: ~+1C 850z til late when it goes <0C. But it somehow still gives 2.5-4” of snow and 3-5” of SN/IP, combined. ZR light (<0.1”).

-GFS is significantly colder with 850s starting ~0C and later falling from there. With qpf up to 1-1.25”, it gives 4-6.5” snow/IP (mainly SN)! ZR is surprisingly high considering the 850s with 0.3-0.4”! That looks highly suspect.

-17Z HRRR is on the high end of snow/IP (almost all snow) with 7.5-8.5”!! ZR is minimal. Qpf is high at 1.05-1.35”. 850s: start +1 to 0C but fall pretty quickly.

 So, lots of variance on wintry precip forms for our corridor depending on 850s with this likely historic storm!

@Awesomesauce81

@gtg947h

Verification for corridor from SAV to Waycross of 12Z Tuesday model runs:

-HRRR runs, which had by far the most snow, were way too high with snow and way too low with sleet because it had too cold 850s

-GFS was even worse with 850s as it had them near 0Z from the start, which would have meant much more snow/less sleet than occurred; instead it had quite a bit too much snow/way too little sleet. But also it despite its cold 850s had that mysterious 0.3-0.4” of ZR, which was significantly too high.

-Euro did well with low ZR but it had too much snow and not nearly enough IP. It appears to have had too little qpf.

-CMC did very well with its 3.5-4” of SN/IP and 1.5-2” of IP, alone, as well as only 0.05” of ZR

-NAM did similarly well with 1-2” of IP and <0.7” of SN, but was way too high with its damaging 0.55-0.8” of ZR

-ICON did well with its limited snow but it’s hard to grade the ZR and IP since it doesn’t explicitly show either (on WxBell at least)

-So overall, these HRRR/GFS runs did worst and CMC best for the SAV to Waycross corridor

[NorthHillsWx]

I think the FV3 handled this event the best 

[neverSnowsLCSC]

On 1/22/2025 at 8:14 AM, Brick Tamland said:

That was fun. When's the next one?

Let's channel our energy and make Feb 6 happen.

[metalicwx367]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Verification for corridor from SAV to Waycross of 12Z Tuesday model runs:

-HRRR runs, which had by far the most snow, were way too high with snow and way too low with sleet because it had too cold 850s

-GFS was even worse with 850s as it had them near 0Z from the start, which would have meant much more snow/less sleet than occurred; instead it had quite a bit too much snow/way too little sleet. But also it despite its cold 850s had that mysterious 0.3-0.4” of ZR, which was significantly too high.

-Euro did well with low ZR but it had too much snow and not nearly enough IP. It appears to have had too little qpf.

-CMC did very well with its 3.5-4” of SN/IP and 1.5-2” of IP, alone, as well as only 0.05” of ZR

-NAM did similarly well with 1-2” of IP and <0.7” of SN, but was way too high with its damaging 0.55-0.8” of ZR

-ICON did well with its limited snow but it’s hard to grade the ZR and IP since it doesn’t explicitly show either (on WxBell at least)

-So overall, these HRRR/GFS runs did worst and CMC best for the SAV to Waycross corridor

Agreed CMC did a great job. Initially when we started out as snow and it had already started accumulating hours ahead of when we were supposed to transition over I thought "holy crap HRRR might be right" then we switched over to sleet the moment temps went below freezing. Very fun event though. I still have about 1.5 inches in the yard. The roads are drivable today somewhat but yesterday didn't leave the house at all. Some locations on north side of town I've seen measurements of 4-5 inches of snow/sleet. 

[DeltaPilot]

I know I looked at a LOT of models last week, who didnt!!! But what I recall is most of the models got quite a few runs which looked very much like what we actually got. All of the models at one point or another had several ensemble runs which kind of nailed it. Im curious for you guys who look way closer at this stuff than most of us do which ones got the overall system "mostly" correct for the gulf states and into the Carolinas, I.E the southeast?

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

I know I looked at a LOT of models last week, who didnt!!! But what I recall is most of the models got quite a few runs which looked very much like what we actually got. All of the models at one point or another had several ensemble runs which kind of nailed it. Im curious for you guys who look way closer at this stuff than most of us do which ones got the overall system "mostly" correct for the gulf states and into the Carolinas, I.E the southeast?

Sorry, I know this is somewhat OT, but do you happen to know if Delta flights from ATL are coming into SAV? I’m on a long hold with Delta waiting and waiting. I’m even doing text chat to try to get faster reply. Supposed to take only 5 minutes but it’s been 35 already.

Now 45 minutes on hold in text chat.

 (I have family members with reservation made well before the storm to arrive late tomorrow morning from ATL.)

[Tony Sisk]

On 1/21/2025 at 9:46 PM, scottk said:

NE SC has been stuck in a dry slot most of the night and now that it has filled in, it’s very light. They had upped our forecast to like 3-5” but I’m not seeing it on the radar at this point. 
 

Am I wrong?

I-85 strikes again! This time, reverse reverse!

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Sorry, I know this is somewhat OT, but do you happen to know if Delta flights from ATL are coming into SAV? I’m on a long hold with Delta waiting and waiting. I’m even doing text chat to try to get faster reply. Supposed to take only 5 minutes but it’s been 35 already.

Now 45 minutes on hold in text chat.

 (I have family members with reservation made well before the storm to arrive late tomorrow morning from ATL.)

Update. They finally responded and said, “No I am sorry it is closed all fights to SAV cancelled on us today” but opens at 11PM tonight. I’m wondering if that’s accurate due to re-freezing and black ice forming tonight. Why would they reopen when temps are back down into 20s?

[DeltaPilot]

The runways probably finally dried out enough or they treated them. My guess is it will be good to go in the am tomorrow.