1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[wncsnow]

Flurries in Old Fort 

[Cheeznado]

1/8 S+ 

[Stebaney]

Where‘s [mention=1490]Brick Tamland[/mention] someone send him the NAM asap!

I am flabbergasted. Could this legit happen?

[SnowDawg]

Already going past a dusting here, and coming down noticeably harder. Maybe GFS and 06z NAM had this one right.

[NYweatherguy]

It's been snowing for two hours now here in south Hall County Georgia. We have more than a dusting and the radar returns look solid. Could we get a couple of inches here? Crazy.

[GaWx]

My sis in Emory area FaceTimed me and it is coming down heaviest yet with a nice dusting!

[NEGa]

Light snow here. It’s a cold 26

[metalicwx367]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for your insight! Based on the 12Z models, I agree 100%. And regardless, all of the models have increased qpf substantially! For our corridor, Euro is on the low side with 0.65-0.8”. 17Z HRRR is 0.85-1”. ICON and CMC are 0.9-1”. The others are 1-1.25”!
 
 The variance in 850s from model to model strongly is affecting predominant precip types (Kuchera snow except Icon):

-The ICON and NAM, which have <0.7” of SN,  have 850s mainly +1 to +2C favoring IP/ZR. NAM has 1-2” of IP and 0.55-0.80” of ZR as it has ~1.1-1.2” total qpf. ICON doesn’t show IP or ZR, but it would have to be quite high considering the 0.9-1” qpf!

-CMC is in between with 0 to +1C 850s till going <0C late. It has ~3.5-4” of SN/IP with ~1.5-2” of IP. It has only ~0.05” of ZR.

-Euro: ~+1C 850z til late when it goes <0C. But it somehow still gives 2.5-4” of snow and 3-5” of SN/IP, combined. ZR light (<0.1”).

-GFS is significantly colder with 850s starting ~0C and later falling from there. With qpf up to 1-1.25”, it gives 4-6.5” snow/IP (mainly SN)! ZR is surprisingly high considering the 850s with 0.3-0.4”! That looks highly suspect.

-17Z HRRR is on the high end of snow/IP (almost all snow) with 7.5-8.5”!! ZR is minimal. Qpf is high at 1.05-1.35”. 850s: start +1 to 0C but fall pretty quickly.

 So, lots of variance on wintry precip forms for our corridor depending on 850s with this likely historic storm!

@Awesomesauce81

@gtg947h

18Z NAM is now starting to show those colder 850s. Cuts freezing rain totals in half and significantly higher snow totals across the region. 

Our winter storm warning is now saying up to 3 inches of snow and 0.10 of ice. Slowly trending into being potentially biggest snowstorm on record here lol.

It's 44F outside rn, but I'm not concerned about that. DP is in mid 20s and we should be below at or below freezing about a couple of hours after the onset of precipitation.

[Upstate Tiger]

If someone just pulled up the radar and saw this with temps in the 20's across the region, he would be pretty impressed.

[snowinnc]

Some of you were really giving Brick a hard time the other day when things didn’t look so great (I kept receipts) so I hope if you’re getting snow you say something nice to him. I think I saw someone say they couldn’t believe that we let Brick start the thread. Not cool. I know it can be frustrating when you want snow so desperately and you’re not getting it, but we need to be kind to each other here. I hope everyone gets a little winter wonderland today!!!

[SnowDeac]

Charlotte snow hole at its finest!!

 

Looks like the Atlantic might be starting to churn up moisture around Charleston and the Lowcountry. Was this progged? Seems like the eastern Carolinas are about to get buried (like the gulf is).

[ObiWanKarlNobi]

[HKY_WX]

Models have come a long way, but we still got room for improvement.

[sinterpol]

5 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

Some of you were really giving Brick a hard time the other day when things didn’t look so great (I kept receipts) so I hope if you’re getting snow you say something nice to him. I think I saw someone say they couldn’t believe that we let Brick start the thread. Not cool. I know it can be frustrating when you want snow so desperately and you’re not getting it, but we need to be kind to each other here. I hope everyone gets a little winter wonderland today!!!

This. Attaboy @Brick Tamland

[Stebaney]

Some of you were really giving Brick a hard time the other day when things didn’t look so great (I kept receipts) so I hope if you’re getting snow you say something nice to him. I think I saw someone say they couldn’t believe that we let Brick start the thread. Not cool. I know it can be frustrating when you want snow so desperately and you’re not getting it, but we need to be kind to each other here. I hope everyone gets a little winter wonderland today!!!

I agree. I don’t know the back story with Brick but he has always been given a hard time, even in 2010 when I joined the boards. Cannot figure out why but I assume it’s all in fun.

[Brick Tamland]

49 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Oh my lord the NAM just did that. 

[Brick Tamland]

10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Models have come a long way, but we still got room for improvement.

RAP has improved, too.

[EasleyWXNovice]

flurries in dn town Greenville, SC

[Cheeznado]

What's really ironic is that a lot of models said we would get .2 to .4 and that will be exactly correct.

[Cheeznado]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

My sis in Emory area FaceTimed me and it is coming down heaviest yet with a nice dusting!

That's where I am. It was heavy for a while.

[NorthHillsWx]

Are we seeing… positive trends… into go time… with temps in mid 20s and no mix issues…. ????

[BombsAway1288]

Any chance the NWS issues a Blizzard Warning for FL? They’re one of the few states that’s never had one. Louisiana got their first one earlier today 

[snowinnc]

Ok Brick, I don’t think you’re very far from me, so you need to do something to raise our dewpoint and saturate the heck out of the skies. You brought it for a lot of people, so bring it on home to us in Northern Wake County. I believe in you!

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

What's really ironic is that a lot of models said we would get .2 to .4 and that will be exactly correct.

Ratios seem to be closer to 10:1 so I think the official airport measurement will be 0.7 or something near that which is what the Euro 10:1 maps showed when I had the major airports on them

[WinstonSalemArlington]

29 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Models have come a long way, but we still got room for improvement.

The Triad just gasped 

[kvegas-wx]

Happy for the board!  For the Triad, maybe a few flakes but honestly I'm not feeling this one at all.  Radar trajectory still favors the Triangle and east and the NAM isnt Namming for us here.  I honestly dont need a nuisance snow anyway.  All or nothing please.

Wow these pics out of LA and FL are nuts!!

[kvegas-wx]

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The Triad just gasped 

Virga is going to chew that up

[NYweatherguy]

Schools are annoucing closures for tomorrow here in the ATL metro. It has been snowing here in south Hall County since 2pm and we have about a half inch on the grass. This storm definitely overperformed in the north metro Atlanta area. 

[Snow haven]

Just now, kvegas-wx said:

Virga is going to chew that up

Absolutely!! It’s been over us here in rockingham all afternoon and the atmosphere is just soaking it up 

[Brick Tamland]

The HRRRRRRRRR doesn't seem impressed with the NAM and RAP.