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1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

Brick Tamland

By Brick Tamland,
in Southeastern States

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Tony Sisk

Tony Sisk

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Here’s a ground report from Lafayette from my family:

6-8” already. Just had thundersnow! Cannot see houses across the street. 2 foot drifts around house. Pics look like full on blizzard. Wish I could post them. 
 

They have a lot of snow to come. Might crack 10”

https://www.klfy.com/sky10-camera-network/

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BooneWX
BooneWX

After digesting some of the 12z data, I think someone in this circle sees snow .

snowinnc
snowinnc

Some of you were really giving Brick a hard time the other day when things didn’t look so great (I kept receipts) so I hope if you’re getting snow you say something nice to him. I think I saw someone

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, metalicwx367 said:

These high-resolution models are very interesting on our snowfall amounts now. Even the GFS ensemble mean doubled snowfall compared to previous run and is a lot wetter. If the freezing rain does happen to be limited as these models are starting to suggest, we might be in for a lot more than 2 inches of snow/sleet if temps cooperate as well. 

 Thanks for your insight! Based on the 12Z models, I agree 100%. And regardless, all of the models have increased qpf substantially! For our corridor, Euro is on the low side with 0.65-0.8”. 17Z HRRR is 0.85-1”. ICON and CMC are 0.9-1”. The others are 1-1.25”!
 
 The variance in 850s from model to model strongly is affecting predominant precip types (Kuchera snow except Icon):

-The ICON and NAM, which have <0.7” of SN,  have 850s mainly +1 to +2C favoring IP/ZR. NAM has 1-2” of IP and 0.55-0.80” of ZR as it has ~1.1-1.2” total qpf. ICON doesn’t show IP or ZR, but it would have to be quite high considering the 0.9-1” qpf!

-CMC is in between with 0 to +1C 850s till going <0C late. It has ~3.5-4” of SN/IP with ~1.5-2” of IP. It has only ~0.05” of ZR.

-Euro: ~+1C 850z til late when it goes <0C. But it somehow still gives 2.5-4” of snow and 3-5” of SN/IP, combined. ZR light (<0.1”).

-GFS is significantly colder with 850s starting ~0C and later falling from there. With qpf up to 1-1.25”, it gives 4-6.5” snow/IP (mainly SN)! ZR is surprisingly high considering the 850s with 0.3-0.4”! That looks highly suspect.

-17Z HRRR is on the high end of snow/IP (almost all snow) with 7.5-8.5”!! ZR is minimal. Qpf is high at 1.05-1.35”. 850s: start +1 to 0C but fall pretty quickly.

 So, lots of variance on wintry precip forms for our corridor depending on 850s with this likely historic storm!

@Awesomesauce81

@gtg947h

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Awesomesauce81

Awesomesauce81

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for your insight! Based on the 12Z models, I agree 100%. And regardless, all of the models have increased qpf substantially! For our corridor, Euro is on the low side with 0.65-0.8”. 17Z HRRR is 0.85-1”. CMC is 0.9-1”. The others are 1-1.25”!
 
 The variance in 850s from model to model strongly is affecting predominant precip types (Kuchera snow except Icon):

-The ICON and NAM, which have <0.7” of SN,  have 850s mainly +1 to +2C favoring IP/ZR. NAM has 1-2” of IP and 0.55-0.80” of ZR as it has ~1.1-1.2” total qpf. NAM doesn’t show IP or ZR.

-CMC is in between with 0 to +1C 850s till going <0C late. It has ~3.5-4” of SN/IP with ~1.5-2” of IP. It has only ~0.05” of ZR.

-Euro: ~+1C 850z til late when it goes <0C. But it somehow still gives 2.5-4” of snow and 3-5” of SN/IP, combined. ZR light (<0.1”).

-GFS is significantly colder with 850s starting ~0C and later falling from there. With qpf up to 1-1.25”, it gives 4-6.5” snow/IP (mainly SN)! ZR is surprisingly high considering the 850s with 0.3-0.4”! That looks highly suspect.

-17Z HRRR is on the high end of snow/IP (almost all snow) with 7.5-8.5”!! ZR is minimal. Qpf is high at 1.05-1.35”. 850s: start +1 to 0C but fall pretty quickly.

 So, lots of variance on wintry precip forms for our corridor depending on 850s with this likely historic storm!

@Awesomesauce81

@gtg947h

I don't think I've ever seen such variance between models in regards to precip so close to go time.  We're in for a wild ride. I've noticed that we probably won't reach our forecasted high of 41 so I'm wondering how that effects our initial p type. 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Awesomesauce81 said:

I don't think I've ever seen such variance between models in regards to precip so close to go time.  We're in for a wild ride. I've noticed that we probably won't reach our forecasted high of 41 so I'm wondering how that affects our initial p type. 

Agreed on the temps.
-My highest has been ~39 vs 41 forecast. Wetbulb ~31.

-Jacksonville’s forecasted high of low 50s won’t be close as high so far only 44

-Brunswick/St. Simons only 42-3 so far. Forecast was 45-47.

-Waycross only 44 vs ~46 forecast

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 

ATL looks like the dry air is going to cave to snow any minute now based on radar

Do you agree @purduewx80and @SnowGoose69and @CheeznadoATL may be about to get snow? Not only the radar, but Columbus and especially Auburn have been getting snow recently. Also, doesn’t the 1000 ft elevation help ATL? And @dsaur ~30-40 miles south just started getting snow!

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Flum

Flum

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 

ATL looks like the dry air is going to cave to snow any minute now based on radar

I keep looking out my window and checking the radar while refreshing this thread.


(I have several half-finished emails and barely-started work on my computer lol)

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Well, I stand corrected. Looks like some snow will occur, interesting that the GFS has 1.4 while the HRRR a trace. A dusting seems like the most likely outcome. 

I think the airport might see a half inch, downtown less.  The Euro did have like 1.1 at the airport based on .08 QPF but I think some of that will be lost to dry air as it had snow by 1830-19z

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Flum said:

Congrats Dsaur. Can you send it up north another 40 or 50 miles...?

Just got to get that dry air saturated.  It's just pin head flakes blowing about, but reports back down stream describe how it fattens up over time, so I'm expecting everyone under  continuing virga will see something even if it's just a flake.

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purduewx80

purduewx80

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you agree @purduewx80and @SnowGoose69and @CheeznadoATL may be about to get snow? Not only the radar, but Columbus and especially Auburn have been getting snow recently. Also, doesn’t the 1000 ft elevation help ATL? And @dsaur ~30-40 miles south just started getting snow!

Yep, looks like 85 will be the rough dividing line between mood flakes and minor impacts. 
IMG_6973.thumb.jpeg.296ae70f67dad49778b0755522d97664.jpeg

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