1/21 - 1/22 Winter Storm Threat

[Vicious Fluid]

My lady is currently at an ACLS class and being the weenie I am, I've been sending her periodic updates. With the virga this morning, and the moisture on the way, I think being cautious is probably best. ATL folk drive terribly in winter weather. I remember the snowpocalypse years back and hearing of friends stuck on 85 SB and abandoning their cars after just a couple inches!

 

[wncsnow]

18 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It looks like it’s snowing in Wilkseboro. Are you out further?

If you are inferring that I am wilkesdude you are terribly incorrect. 

[Justicebork]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM looks better.

For RDU east, yes.  Selfishly, I'll take the NAM

[StantonParkHoya]

Just now, Justicebork said:

For RDU east, yes.

My brother, this has always been an RDU east deal unless you want flurries

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

My brother, this has always been an RDU east deal unless you want flurries

The last two NAM runs say differently.

[wncsnow]

HiRes NAM moved east too

[Justicebork]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

My brother, this has always been an RDU east deal unless you want flurries

We are in agreement.

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the last NAM run decreased totals west of the Triangle, kept things about the same for central NC, and decreased totals east of central NC. 

[Tullioz]

9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I didn't know the run before had that much in NC. I am surprised no one posted it earlier.

I posted the quantitative precipitation maps earlier this morning. I prefer to use them to recognize trends rather than snowfall maps in situations where precipitation type isn't in question. 

6 hours ago, Tullioz said:

The NW trend continues on the NAM as well.

[hrtsdsn]

i'll be happy just to see some snowflakes here just northeast of Charlotte.  Fingers crossed!

[tarheelwx]

So much for the northwest trend right up to go time.  

TW

[BooneWX]

Be careful over analyzing models that are currently doing a horrible job initializing radar data and obs

[goldman75]

How much wiggle room does the Carolina coast have if the nw trend goes much further before it turns into a sleet fest? 

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Be careful over analyzing models that are currently doing a horrible job initializing radar data and obs

Yeah, last three runs of the NAM have been back and forth with how far west the snow gets in NC and the totals. 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Yeah, last three runs of the NAM have been back and forth with how far west the snow gets in NC and the totals. 

It’s because these models are tools, not verbatim. Everyone take a breather and watch the radar at this point. Many of us will get snow. Some more than others but weather is going to weather and the NAM/HRRR/GFS etc are all beyond useless at this juncture. 

[stormwatcherJ]

2 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

How much wiggle room does the Carolina coast have if the nw trend goes much further before it turns into a sleet fest? 

I’ve been thinking about this too. Was thinking of driving to the coast to try to see some decent snow. Fortunately wiggle room time is dwindling. I think we get snow at the coast.

[NorthHillsWx]

I think Wake county gets 1-2” tonight. Triad will be tricky with the edge but I think you go from no accumulation to 1” pretty quick then you have a large area of 1-2” before the coastal plain increase

[olafminesaw]

Seems like the HRRR is depicting ground truth reasonably close so far. Actually 6z was probably a bit to far inland for LA Island corrected at 12z. Doesn't mean we won't get precip further inland in the Carolina's, but it is all to easy to look at virga and think the models are to suppressed with the moisture 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[RamblinRed]

16 minutes ago, Vicious Fluid said:

My lady is currently at an ACLS class and being the weenie I am, I've been sending her periodic updates. With the virga this morning, and the moisture on the way, I think being cautious is probably best. ATL folk drive terribly in winter weather. I remember the snowpocalypse years back and hearing of friends stuck on 85 SB and abandoning their cars after just a couple inches!

 

In fairness on 2014, since I lived through that - the roads went from drivable to ice rinks in about a 30 minute timespan.

As soon as they iced everything became impassable because of accidents and the inability of cars to drive up icy hills.

Thankfully I worked from home that day but I had teammates who went in to town to work and they got stuck on those roads. 

They brined the highways but it rained first and washed it all away. Then the temp dropped and the frozen precip started. 

There is a great time lapse somewhere of traffic in Atlanta that day. It went from every road being green to every road being red in about 45 minutes.

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Looks good. 3 inches would be a huge storm compared to what we had here the last 3 years. It ill be nice to get a true snow storm for a change.

[Flum]

Interesting update based on radar observations from NWS in Peachtree City. I wonder whether the moisture will actually overtake the dry air. 
 

[Vicious Fluid]

4 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

In fairness on 2014, since I lived through that - the roads went from drivable to ice rinks in about a 30 minute timespan.

As soon as they iced everything became impassable because of accidents and the inability of cars to drive up icy hills.

Thankfully I worked from home that day but I had teammates who went in to town to work and they got stuck on those roads. 

They brined the highways but it rained first and washed it all away. Then the temp dropped and the frozen precip started. 

There is a great time lapse somewhere of traffic in Atlanta that day. It went from every road being green to every road being red in about 45 minutes.

I remember that event very well, and it was absolutely worst case for ATL and metro. I was home for the first part of it, but had to work 3 days after the snow fell. We didn't have power for 2 days, and survived by the fireplace. On day 3, we finally got power back, just in time for me to ride (no joke) a moped from Buford to the nursing home I tech'd at in Gainesville. Ah, that was some ride! One of my buddies who was stuck on 85 linked up with a friend who luckily lived off the highway near the old Duluth cinema strip mall. Took him 3 hours to walk there, in the snow, with a blanket and his phone while his car sat on the freeway. I believe it was after that storm that my area petitioned to buy their first 3 salt trucks in a decade (prior to that, we had only 1)!

 

Sorry for the banter. Nostalgic, I guess. 

[Brick Tamland]

[WXNewton]

Fv3 is back further north and west this run.

[BooneWX]

Healthy radar blossoming to the sw. Virga but returns nonetheless are making it to Chattanooga.

[ILM2714]

7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Reported for pornographic content. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Really think the triangle is in a great spot to break the 1” snow drought 

[PackGrad05]

RDU is a poor way to represent Wake County as a whole anyway.  RDU is on the very west edge of a county that is 857 square miles.  This could easily be a scenario where Garner/Fuquay, etc... see way more than RDU.  

[Brick Tamland]

FV3 seems to have the precip much further west, more expansive than the other models. At the same time it seems it takes a while for the actual snow to reach the ground because the totals are light.