BooneWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 3:53 PM, GunBlade said: Another run or two of trends like this and everyone will be running back for more model run torture. This is the free goofy snow map which isn’t accurate but shows the growing precip field across the area. Expand Just insane to see the panhandle with near foot totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Ill bet ya we get 1/4-1/2 inch suzook. What would you like to wager? Im just NE of downtown Senoia off Rockaway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 3:53 PM, GunBlade said: Another run or two of trends like this and everyone will be running back for more model run torture. This is the free goofy snow map which isn’t accurate but shows the growing precip field across the area. Expand Yeah, these TT snow maps are way overdone on the SE side due to counting all wintry as snow. But you can see the snowier/NW trend. The qpf also shows the significant wetter/NW trend! So, at 12Z, NAM, Icon, and GFS further NW. This is similar to the last day or two strong NW trend for late Jan 2014! 6Z GFS 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 3:53 PM, GunBlade said: Another run or two of trends like this and everyone will be running back for more model run torture. This is the free goofy snow map which isn’t accurate but shows the growing precip field across the area. Expand Don't think you'll see a big change really, this is simply the models catching onto what the Euro has been showing, the WAA finger of snow over GA/SC/AL was being badly underdone but I'd expect it does not climb much further north than this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The clear trends towards a more neutral trough. Probably too late for Raleigh to get into the 1"+ zone, but could be a good storm from Fayetteville to Wilmington 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Ill take one more north tick here. Whatever falls is going to immediately accumulate here for once. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 3:51 PM, stormwatcherJ said: Starting to wonder if anyone in the southeast will see any snow accumulations, lol Expand The coastal areas of LA and MS still look good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12Z CMC joins NAM, Icon, and GFS with NW trend and wetter! This seems similar to the late Jan of 2014 sudden late NW trend that lead to ATL and other areas into well inland SC/NC getting huge impact. I‘m not saying big impact to ATL and those other well inland areas yet. But keep watching! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Big issue here is the extremely dry airmass. The precip that some models show may be overdone due to a lot of the precip being virga, hard to saturate the column when you are not int he area with the best dynamics. Still think a dusting here is the best we can expect. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:07 PM, Cheeznado said: Big issue here is the extremely dry airmass. The precip that some models show may be overdone due to a lot of the precip being virga, hard to saturate the column when you are not int he area with the best dynamics. Still think a dusting here is the best we can expect. Expand Agreed! But you can’t deny the NW trends/wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 4:02 PM, MJO812 said: The coastal areas of LA and MS still look good. Expand The spots I'd most want to be in are probably a BTR-Hattiesburg to maybe 40 miles south of MGM-CSG-MCN corridor...south of that might be mixing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS run was interesting. Whole system well NW and more of a neutral tilt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Large NW trend on just about everything at 12Z! I’m surprised it isn’t more active in here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The orientation of the tilt change is evident on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 3:56 PM, DeltaPilot said: Ill bet ya we get 1/4-1/2 inch suzook. What would you like to wager? Im just NE of downtown Senoia off Rockaway Expand Im off Robinson so I'll take .1-.2 less than you. Haha! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12Z GEFS 10:1, though not dramatically so, is consistent with the 12Z model consensus of a snowier/NW trend for many areas vs 6Z. 6Z: 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 3:56 PM, DeltaPilot said: Ill bet ya we get 1/4-1/2 inch suzook. What would you like to wager? Im just NE of downtown Senoia off Rockaway Expand I'll wager a beer at pearl and pine. What's the over under? Btw, I'm right off 16 across from draft room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12Z UKMET starting off better too with a NW/snowier trend since 18Z run yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I wouldn't put too much faith in the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The Euro has been trending drier for awhile as it had been near the wettest and was correcting toward the others. Will that drying continue with the 12Z or will it now stop or maybe even reverse the drying considering the 12Z model consensus? We’ll know fairly soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 We went from 5-8 to 1-3 to less than 1 and now back up to 1-3. Hopefully the gains continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12Z Euro: fairly similar to 6Z; so the only major 12Z model without a notable NW/wetter trend though it did trend slightly NW vs 6Z in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 when does the next HRRR run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12Z Euro: Kuchera snow: Sleet: ZR: qpf: 12Z qpf 6Z as comparison showing slight NW trend at 12Z, mainly in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 To me, it looks like a clear move back to the NW. Not a huge jump, but a clear NW move. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 For NC nice jump NW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxslug Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I’ve been on this forum for a long time (the 25th will make 14 years) and rarely post, but it seems this place has almost become a dumpster fire of whining, complaining, and just plain childishness. In a storm thread in years past I was able to learn, whether it actually snowed or not, and got to read a lot of good analysis. All the ridiculous, off-topic comments used to be relegated to a dedicated banter thread and there was actual moderation. It’s like the mods and admin just gave up. Ok, got that off my chest, and that’ll do it for my approximately two posts per year. Maybe next year professionalism will become the norm again. 3 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYweatherguy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:37 PM, wxslug said: I’ve been on this forum for a long time (the 25th will make 14 years) and rarely post, but it seems this place has almost become a dumpster fire of whining, complaining, and just plain childishness. In a storm thread in years past I was able to learn, whether it actually snowed or not, and got to read a lot of good analysis. All the ridiculous, off-topic comments used to be relegated to a dedicated banter thread and there was actual moderation. It’s like the mods and admin just gave up. Ok, got that off my chest, and that’ll do it for my approximately two posts per year. Maybe next year professionalism will become the norm again. Expand Totally agree with you on this. I also have been around for years and remain mostly a lurker (I don't have the ability to participate intelligently) but this board has definitely gone down hill with all the mocking and childish arguments. It's a shame. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:28 PM, neatlburbwthrguy said: when does the next HRRR run? Expand 17Z HRRR is running rn. The 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z are the ones that go out to 48 hours. 18Z should be running around 3PM EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/20/2025 at 5:37 PM, wxslug said: I’ve been on this forum for a long time (the 25th will make 14 years) and rarely post, but it seems this place has almost become a dumpster fire of whining, complaining, and just plain childishness. In a storm thread in years past I was able to learn, whether it actually snowed or not, and got to read a lot of good analysis. All the ridiculous, off-topic comments used to be relegated to a dedicated banter thread and there was actual moderation. It’s like the mods and admin just gave up. Ok, got that off my chest, and that’ll do it for my approximately two posts per year. Maybe next year professionalism will become the norm again. Expand On 1/20/2025 at 5:54 PM, NYweatherguy said: Totally agree with you on this. I also have been around for years and remain mostly a lurker (I don't have the ability to participate intelligently) but this board has definitely gone down hill with all the mocking and childish arguments. It's a shame. Expand Would y’all and others mind posting this kind of thing in banter? Otherwise it will just add clutter to this storm thread. TIA 12 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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