gallopinggertie Posted Monday at 03:53 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:53 AM 23 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z ICON continues the general trend of this model moistening up in NW FL as well as in the GA/SC coastal areas: 0Z Icon qpf 0Z Icon 10:1 snow Icon snow from 24 hours ago: Panama City goes from nothing to 4-5”… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted Monday at 03:57 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:57 AM 2 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: Wrong! Suppression, likely leading to much less stream interaction would be the problem for much of the Carolinas being dry and cold... no? 41 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Probably have a better chance at getting a hurricane now than snow. Don't tempt... Just dont tempt. 35 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: It’s just crazy isn’t it? Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes... The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted Monday at 03:59 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:59 AM Eh, it’s the gfs at this short range but it’s trying to throw some precip further inland into the Carolinas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 04:03 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:03 AM Watch euro and EPS come back west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted Monday at 04:05 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:05 AM NWS has issued winter storm watches for the Big Bend and even Gainesville! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted Monday at 04:07 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:07 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Monday at 04:13 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:13 AM GFS and ICON both show Teeny-Tiny NW trends, but only in the N extent of the moisture, very little change in track. At this point it is far too little, too late. for inland folks in the Carolinas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 05:04 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:04 AM What happened to the 0Z UKMET? Were the weenies too much for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 05:54 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:54 AM EPS ticked SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 06:08 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:08 AM 18 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: EPS ticked SE The Euro suite, which had been one of the wettest and is why I said I was fading it, continues its gradual drying trend while the Icon, which had been one of the driest, has been trending wetter. So, now the Icon and Euro are pretty close. The extremely low dewpoints are going to mean lots of virga to start. Will the virga overperform and minimize how much reaches the ground? Quite possible and it may be the main reason for big differences in qpf and changes from run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted Monday at 06:15 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:15 AM Sure does feel like after this week we are going deep into Fab Feb before we'll this pattern back again. Once the pattern relaxes it may not come back as we've seen before. The inverse of our cold is the complete lack of winter in places like the mountains of CA. I'll be headed out to Yosemite in April. They have zero snow now. Locals are telling me to expect a late winter there. Probably about the time the SER returns here in March and April. Can't blame this one on Brick. Not even he can mess up bad enough to make it snow on Bourbon St. That takes a special kind of jinx. 4 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Monday at 11:03 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:03 AM 7 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Maybe one day the models can be wrong again like they were in January 2000 and 12 hours out we'll find out the precip is going to be much farther north and everyone gets a big storm. that will never happen again. modeling gets better every year. Sure there will always be some surprises and you might get some under modeled snow fall. but nothing to the level of what happened in 2000. Technology is too good for that. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Monday at 12:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:34 PM The models overnight must have been really bad. lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neverSnowsLCSC Posted Monday at 01:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:01 PM 21 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: The models overnight must have been really bad. lol. Snow is just straight up vanishing inland of the immediate coast. Summerville will be lucky to see a few snow flakes now. This sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:51 PM Happy for the Gulf Coast, this will be a once in a generation type storm for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Monday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:51 PM Tough one for the NWS here, the GRAF/Euro/GFS are all showing snow extending way further in GA/SC/NC than any other model, you can assume the higher resolution of the mesos is correct and why they see nothing but in airmass like this it might not take much to squeeze out an inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted Monday at 02:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:04 PM So whats the fv3 high res? Decent/accurate mesos? It looks better than most. I feel like years ago there was a gfs fv3. Been MIA from the hobby for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Monday at 02:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:25 PM 19 minutes ago, goldman75 said: So whats the fv3 high res? Decent/accurate mesos? It looks better than most. I feel like years ago there was a gfs fv3. Been MIA from the hobby for a while It did well with the last SE storm, I know that. Its awful with convection though. I had been ignoring it since it was so bad last summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Monday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:27 PM 35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Tough one for the NWS here, the GRAF/Euro/GFS are all showing snow extending way further in GA/SC/NC than any other model, you can assume the higher resolution of the mesos is correct and why they see nothing but in airmass like this it might not take much to squeeze out an inch of snow no not really..NWS is very comfortable with what they already put out. I know you're trying to hold on to hope but this one is over my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PortsmouthWeather Posted Monday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:41 PM 13 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: no not really..NWS is very comfortable with what they already put out. I know you're trying to hold on to hope but this one is over my friend The NAM and 3K did trend west on the 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfpack25 Posted Monday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:43 PM Well, this went to 0 in a hurry. I am about 20 miles west of Wilmington,NC and we were in the bullseye early. Usually were are left out of the winter weather because of the NW trend but now we can't get any NW trend. It was fun to track but this is probably our last shot of the year. I hate this kind of cold without winter weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:06 PM Warning: This is probably a great example of getting “NAM’ed”. What the heck? 6Z (3 km) had this qpf: 12Z: How could it increase so much in just one run? Not far from me it increased from 0.08” to 1.12”! The NW end of the precip went from a line from FL/AL/GA intersection to Albany to just N of SAV to CHS to 40 miles offshore from the SC/NC border on the 6Z to way up to a just N of Columbus/Macon to Augusta to just N of CAE to Fayetteville line on the 12Z! That’s a 100-125 mile NW shift! Any opinions? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Monday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:20 PM 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: Warning: This is probably a great example of getting “NAM’ed”. What the heck? 6Z (3 km) had this qpf: 12Z: How could it increase so much in just one run? Not far from me it increased from 0.08” to 1.12”! The NW end of the precip went from a line from FL/AL/GA intersection to Albany to just N of SAV to CHS to 40 miles offshore from the SC/NC border on the 6Z to way up to a just N of Columbus/Macon to Augusta to just N of CAE to Fayetteville on the 12Z! That’s a 100-125 mile NW shift! Any opinions? Hope you get smoked Larry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:33 PM The 12Z Icon also got a bit wetter and is similar to the 12Z NAM. It wasn’t nearly as dramatic a change as the NAM’s but the 6Z Icon had already been much further NW and wetter than 6Z NAM. 6Z Icon 12Z Icon Look at how much further NW and wetter the 12Z Icon is vs the 18Z Icon on Saturday: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted Monday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:46 PM 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: Warning: This is probably a great example of getting “NAM’ed”. What the heck? 6Z (3 km) had this qpf: 12Z: How could it increase so much in just one run? Not far from me it increased from 0.08” to 1.12”! The NW end of the precip went from a line from FL/AL/GA intersection to Albany to just N of SAV to CHS to 40 miles offshore from the SC/NC border on the 6Z to way up to a just N of Columbus/Macon to Augusta to just N of CAE to Fayetteville line on the 12Z! That’s a 100-125 mile NW shift! Any opinions? Loving all the model differences and changes for us each run from a major winter event less than 36 hours out. NWS Jax is expecting mainly freezing rain here. Starts out as snow briefly before changing over to predominantly freezing rain. GFS has been trending colder each run and 6Z run had nearly all snow and sleet. Last Euro run trended warmer and drier again. Very little freezing rain though. 12Z ICON trended significantly wetter and has snow starting out and transitioning to freezing rain. Canadian and RGEM show an all sleet event. UKMET is dry af and all rain with the little precip that does fall. Graphcast is sleet to snow. Less QPF than previous runs. EC AIFS has trended drier. But nearly all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:47 PM Weenie from NYC here Congrats to everyone who will be seeing accumulating snow. This must be a once in a lifetime event for many people . Enjoy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Monday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:49 PM 1 hour ago, Wolfpack25 said: Well, this went to 0 in a hurry. I am about 20 miles west of Wilmington,NC and we were in the bullseye early. Usually were are left out of the winter weather because of the NW trend but now we can't get any NW trend. It was fun to track but this is probably our last shot of the year. I hate this kind of cold without winter weather. sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted Monday at 03:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:51 PM I will enjoy the mood flakes here tomorrow evening. Looks like that's all I will see. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted Monday at 03:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:51 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weenie from NYC here Congrats to everyone who will be seeing accumulating snow. This must be a once in a lifetime event for many people . Enjoy Starting to wonder if anyone in the southeast will see any snow accumulations, lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted Monday at 03:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:53 PM Another run or two of trends like this and everyone will be running back for more model run torture. This is the free goofy snow map which isn’t accurate but shows the growing precip field across the area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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