Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 06:28 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:28 PM 25 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z EPS 10:1 looks amazingly good for many and even historic for deep SE! Ens maps like this in deep SE/Gulf coast almost unheard of: Qpf: That does look much better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted Saturday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:28 PM 27 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z EPS 10:1 looks amazingly good for many and even historic for deep SE! Ens maps like this in deep SE/Gulf coast almost unheard of: Qpf: can we please get that heavier snow shield about 70 miles west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Saturday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:29 PM I saw where someone says the NBM are higher also because it counts in those higher ratios... Not sure how true that is or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 06:29 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:29 PM Just now, QC_Halo said: Can’t believe he was the one to start this thread. Why? People were telling me to start it yesterday. I had a feeling 10 days out this could be a big storm. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Saturday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:30 PM Remember that on the NW edge of that shield, ratios will be BETTER than 10:1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Saturday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:30 PM 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: I saw where someone says the NBM are higher also because it counts in those higher ratios... Not sure how true that is or what? I saw that and I also saw that the new model data would not be in the NBM until 19Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 06:32 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:32 PM I think we'll see some waffling back and forth with the placement of the low and precip field until at least Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:33 PM Just now, metalicwx367 said: Don't let us down Euro. GFS was all rain and temps in mid 30s for most of southern GA. UKMET same but warmer and less precip. Most recent AIFS and Graphcast were big ZR events based on 850s and SFC temps around 30F. ICON was a step in the right direction, but not much precip. Regardless of what this storm does or doesn’t do, the EPS is about as perfect as can be for us for 3.5 days out. Hope we get 1”+! This suggests 70-90% chance for our corridor!! Also, note 90%+ for ILM, MB, Charleston, Albany, Dothan, Pensacola, Mobile, Biloxi, and N.O.!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankdawg Posted Saturday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:34 PM 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z EPS members snow (excludes sleet/ZR): it is 10:1 rather than Kuchera. So, I’d take ~1/4 off for deep SE but still this is about the best ever for deep SE/Gulf coast. May not be next opportunity like this for many years to come! It may be finally our time to shine. Not a flake or pellet in 7 years. And maybe history about to be made?! We’ll see as this is still ~3.5 days out so not getting hopes up too high. Also, there’s the very real danger of a bad icestorm even into N FL! @metallica470 @Awesomesauce81 @gtg947h wow, every single one of those show it snowing here in the southern part of central GA! never seen that on ensembles. screenshot 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Saturday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:42 PM Euro Ens is the #1 id want in my back pocket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted Saturday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:42 PM 13 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Why? People were telling me to start it yesterday. I had a feeling 10 days out this could be a big storm. You doubled down son…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted Saturday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:47 PM I bow my head in prayer. Oh great frosty overlords, bless us with your icy confetti. I promise to shovel with a smile. Just one snow day, please! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted Saturday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:54 PM 4 hours ago, suzook said: ZR on Thurs? I am not seeing that anywhere? I hope we dont get ZR. Just 20 percent chance. It was snow last night. I imagine the present system has to get done before Thur comes into focus. A follow up sys has been on the maps but last night was the first time it showed up on the point forecast. The bitter air will have to mellow fast in the column to go from sn to zr in two days. I imagine it will be back to snow soon. I was just glad to see frozen mentioned at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted Saturday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:56 PM 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Areas in SE GA/S SC that were ZR on 0Z CMC have sleet on 12Z CMC due to further SE track Sleet, sleet, sleet...and you have to believe in wishes, Larry...and something about a roast chicken 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted Saturday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:07 PM Too amped or too suppressed. I think I know the official song of winter weather in the Triangle I know what I want but I just don't know how to go about getting it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 07:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:10 PM 50 minutes ago, bankdawg said: wow, every single one of those show it snowing here in the southern part of central GA! never seen that on ensembles. screenshot I looked up Cordele, which looks like it is ~20 miles to the west of Rochelle, because they have good snow records back 90 years. Here are the only measurable snows there: 2/1973: 3.5” 2/2010: 1.5” 1/1935: 0.8” 12/1943: 0.5” 1/2018: 0.3” So, EPS is saying 90%+ chance for at least 3rd highest snow on record! And there’s ~40% chance to break the record if you can believe that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Saturday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:19 PM 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: I looked up Cordele, which looks like it is ~20 miles to the west of Rochelle, because they have good snow records back 90 years. Here are the only measurable snows there: 2/1973: 3.5” 2/2010: 1.5” 1/1935: 0.8” 12/1943: 0.5” 1/2018: 0.3” So, EPS is saying 90%+ chance for at least 3rd highest snow on record! I guess they were too far south in January 92. There were some 6-8 inch amounts near FFC-MCN in that. I still think for biggest snows right now I’d want to be a hair north of them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted Saturday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:26 PM 2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: Brad P just released a great video for those wanting more info about why it may or may not move northwest. Has to do with the strength of the system. If it doesn't get stronger, it will stay more south. and he even mentioned CONSISTENCY with overall track of the system being a coastal runner Actually is a pretty good vid ngl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Saturday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:49 PM From the real mccoys 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Saturday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:52 PM Aww Guys you shouldn’t have. My wife takes me to Cashiers Sapphire Valley for the weekend for my birthday. A nice relaxing horse ride in the snow through the Nantahala along the Horse Pasture River. And I get back to the room and find you all ordered me 1” of snow IMBY on the 12z Euro. Really, you guys are too much. 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted Saturday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:55 PM Discussion for Eastern North Carolina covers two scenarios including a 20% possibility of blizzard conditions at Cape Hatteras:https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MHX&issuedby=MHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Saturday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:04 PM 8 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said: Discussion for Eastern North Carolina covers two scenarios including a 20% possibility of blizzard conditions at Cape Hatteras:https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MHX&issuedby=MHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Yeah, MHC using some pretty bold language on snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted Saturday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:30 PM 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: Remember that on the NW edge of that shield, ratios will be BETTER than 10:1 When I lived on Beech Mountain back in 2010-2012 we had snow ratios of 40 to 1 to 60 to 1 in some very cold NWFS events. The temp was below 20 degrees to about 5 degrees during these events. The winter of 2010-2011 Beech Mt got 160 plus inches of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Saturday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:39 PM NAM is much more in line with other guidance this run. Still a bit more north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 09:00 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 09:00 PM NAM at 84 looks great. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Saturday at 09:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:05 PM We’re moving towards consensus finally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted Saturday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:18 PM 16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: NAM at 84 looks great. You or anyone have frame before so we can see Georgia? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 09:19 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 09:19 PM RDPS at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 09:21 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 09:21 PM 3 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: You or anyone have frame before so we can see Georgia? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Saturday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:27 PM 20 minutes ago, BooneWX said: We’re moving towards consensus finally Honestly kinda a relief to come to terms with the reality of just flurries to half an inch in these parts. Anything else is gravy! Better than being on the edge right to the end only to be on the outside looking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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