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Discussion-OBS (if any) for Tuesday afternoon-night (Jan 21-early 22) northwest fringe snowfall from the departing southeast USA winter storm.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag

wdrag

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Very simple thread that may not produce for most of our NYC subforum but LI and south of I80 in NJ seem threatened.  Again, this may be a null event for us but am sure it will have some conversation in what is our last half of January series of wintry opportunities. At 917A added 00z/18 CMCE, 00z and 06z/18 EPS and no GEFS since it was snow free this far northwest

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Screen Shot 2025-01-18 at 9.14.40 AM.png

Screen Shot 2025-01-18 at 9.14.56 AM.png

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wdrag

wdrag

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The very minor event the night of the 21st-early22nd along the coast might be more of CFP with steep lapse rates, decent snow growth snow showers, rather than the nw fringe of the departing se USA storm.  For now lets keep it going. 

Have seen the 24th possible event but no action til late Monday at the earliest.  It does seem to have possibilities of eventually looking as a nice snow event but holding off at least 24 hours - 8PM Monday the 20th,  til it looks better with all modeling.

Then the sw USA closed 5H low next weekend will eventually send some GMEX moisture newd toward us as the 5H low moves bodily to the Easton the Rockies or splits eastward with ptype issues? 

 

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wdrag

wdrag

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No need to cancel this thread... no one is excited by it.  However, keeping it going... will be a probable near miss for the coasts. The storm hasn't departed yet.  I can live with a miss since it was always projected uncertain.  IF it does snow coastal NJ and LI... it sticks.  Don't give up yet s shore Li and coastal NJ, especially if pressure adjustments permit a north surface wind and a bit of NNE boundary layer trajectory late tomorrow. Right now, not. 

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Volcanic Winter

Volcanic Winter

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5 hours ago, wdrag said:

No need to cancel this thread... no one is excited by it.  However, keeping it going... will be a probable near miss for the coasts. The storm hasn't departed yet.  I can live with a miss since it was always projected uncertain.  IF it does snow coastal NJ and LI... it sticks.  Don't give up yet s shore Li and coastal NJ, especially if pressure adjustments permit a north surface wind and a bit of NNE boundary layer trajectory late tomorrow. Right now, not. 

Thank you Walt, your efforts are very much appreciated. 

I was definitely paying attention for a bit of snow on snow, but yeah - modeling not looking good at the moment. We’ll see what happens. 

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wdrag

wdrag

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29 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Thank you Walt, your efforts are very much appreciated. 

I was definitely paying attention for a bit of snow on snow, but yeah - modeling not looking good at the moment. We’ll see what happens. 

HANG IN THERE... EC AI AND NAVGEM STEADY for e tip LI.  Probably will miss and presuming the bl wind stays offshore, not happening for snow but the door is open slightly to adjustments for tomorrow night.  

 

added at1246P. EC continues T-0.3" amounts along the NJ coast most of LI and now FAR se New England. Its edging N in GA/Carolinas. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

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IMO, the region's best chance for flurries or light snow from the potentially historic Gulf Coast snowstorm will be southeastern NJ and easternmost Long Island. Perhaps the best case for New York City would be flurries or a dusting of snow, but that seems to be a low probability scenario right now.

The storm in question has the potential to bring measurable snow to Gulfport, Houston, Mobile, New Orleans, Pensacola, and Tallahassee. Only the legendary February 13-15, 1895 snowstorm did that. That storm produced no measurable snow in New York City.  If one widens the sample by selecting pairs of cities likely to receive measurable snowfall in the Gulf Coast/Southeast since 1950 and the New York City outcome, one finds:

Savannah/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/6 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

Mobile/Pensacola received measurable snowfall: 1/5 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC (0.8")

Mobile/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/4 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

New Orleans/Mobile received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

New Orleans/Savannah received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

That's since 1950. The Blizzard of 1899 brought snow to the Gulf Coast and heavy snow to New York City. However, that blizzard was blocked from going out to sea by a strong ridge to its east that had rapidly strengthened coupled with an extraordinarily deep trough coming eastward. This time around, the trough is much less impressive and the offshore ridge is centered much farther to the east, essentially assuring that the storm does not have to turn northward up the coast.

February 12, 1899:

image.gif.54794c631e7acb2828505cf60cb62460.gif

February 13, 1899:

image.gif.0de275bb998bb521ae1d1e26e820e998.gif

February 14, 1899:

image.gif.94f15dde2e5dc55267ea3afe70a9c56e.gif

EPS: January 22 12z

image.png.5b59fed012b4f66cf68d46a7d5e0b860.png

EPS:January 23 12z:

image.thumb.png.cb7aea57c7071a545196a64b8bad5324.png

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, the region's best chance for flurries or light snow from the potentially historic Gulf Coast snowstorm will be southeastern NJ and easternmost Long Island. Perhaps the best case for New York City would be flurries or a dusting of snow, but that seems to be a low probability scenario right now.

The storm in question has the potential to bring measurable snow to Gulfport, Houston, Mobile, New Orleans, Pensacola, and Tallahassee. Only the legendary February 13-15, 1895 snowstorm did that. That storm produced no measurable snow in New York City.  If one widens the sample by selecting pairs of cities likely to receive measurable snowfall in the Gulf Coast/Southeast since 1950 and the New York City outcome, one finds:

Savannah/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/6 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

Mobile/Pensacola received measurable snowfall: 1/5 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC (0.8")

Mobile/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/4 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

New Orleans/Mobile received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

New Orleans/Savannah received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

That's since 1950. The Blizzard of 1899 brought snow to the Gulf Coast and heavy snow to New York City. However, that blizzard was blocked from going out to sea by a strong ridge to its east that had rapidly strengthened coupled with an extraordinarily deep trough coming eastward. This time around, the trough is much less impressive and the offshore ridge is centered much farther to the east, essentially assuring that the storm does not have to turn northward up the coast.

February 12, 1899:

image.gif.54794c631e7acb2828505cf60cb62460.gif

February 13, 1899:

image.gif.0de275bb998bb521ae1d1e26e820e998.gif

February 14, 1899:

image.gif.94f15dde2e5dc55267ea3afe70a9c56e.gif

EPS: January 22 12z

image.png.5b59fed012b4f66cf68d46a7d5e0b860.png

EPS:January 23 12z:

image.thumb.png.cb7aea57c7071a545196a64b8bad5324.png

February 1899 came from a completely different era though, right, Don? I don't think that kind of widespread extreme snowfall event is possible anymore, as we don't get those kinds of extreme ridges and troughs anymore and such a deep layer of extreme cold air on the east coast.

What was going on that winter- an el nino? That storm almost behaved like a really cold triple phaser.  Cape May's record of 34 inches from that storm is still the state record.  I put that storm right up there with March 1888, December 1947, March 1960, February 1983, March 1993, January 1996, PD2, January 2016, etc., as some of the greatest storms that have ever struck the east coast.

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

February 1899 came from a completely different era though, right, Don? I don't think that kind of widespread extreme snowfall event is possible anymore, as we don't get those kinds of extreme ridges and troughs anymore and such a deep layer of extreme cold air on the east coast.

What was going on that winter- an el nino? That storm almost behaved like a really cold triple phaser.  Cape May's record of 34 inches from that storm is still the state record.  I put that storm right up there with March 1888, December 1947, March 1960, February 1983, March 1993, January 1996, PD2, January 2016, etc., as some of the greatest storms that have ever struck the east coast.

 

Yes. 1899 was a rare event. Nothing like that is likely. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. 1899 was a rare event. Nothing like that is likely. 

Going back through history of the 1800s and even the 1700s (some records go that far back, particularly in Philadelphia and New York, though unofficial), is there anything like the February 1899 snowstorm in the record books either before or since, Don?

 

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wdrag

wdrag

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Tonight continues on the table.  Attached the 08z/21 NWS probabilistic 1", 07z/21 BOM, 09z/21 SREF, 06z/21 GEFS (weakest, again most conservative), 00z/21 EPS, 00z/21 CMCE.  Am hoping some folks on our subforum along along the coasts will be observing and reporting slight accumulations between 7PM and midnight (roughly), from a 1-4 hour period of snow showers. All models as I sampled vertically at Upton through the FSU MOE website show a chance of snow getting to the ground in that time frame.  Lets see if the conservative BOM/GEFS win out with an offshore miss. A couple models show a chance for halfway decent dendritic growth (not just tiny flakes). Again and unknown on all but a wintry flavor.

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psv88

psv88

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6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Expecting up to 5 inches of snow in the Florida panhandle.

Pensacola already set their all time record, more than 3 inches. We will never see this again. 

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