Discussion-OBS (if any) for Tuesday afternoon-night (Jan 21-early 22) northwest fringe snowfall from the departing southeast USA winter storm.

[wdrag]

Very simple thread that may not produce for most of our NYC subforum but LI and south of I80 in NJ seem threatened.  Again, this may be a null event for us but am sure it will have some conversation in what is our last half of January series of wintry opportunities. At 917A added 00z/18 CMCE, 00z and 06z/18 EPS and no GEFS since it was snow free this far northwest

[NEG NAO]

Maybe change the dates on this too around the 24th ? 21st to 22ndd looks like a total miss offshore ATM.....

[wdrag]

No changing dates at this time.  I know we have one possible 24-25 but still can see a grazer Central southern NJ e LI.  Never played this up but it's out there, especially tomorrow once we get through tonights mess. Thanks for waiting it out with me. 

[wdrag]

The very minor event the night of the 21st-early22nd along the coast might be more of CFP with steep lapse rates, decent snow growth snow showers, rather than the nw fringe of the departing se USA storm.  For now lets keep it going. 

Have seen the 24th possible event but no action til late Monday at the earliest.  It does seem to have possibilities of eventually looking as a nice snow event but holding off at least 24 hours - 8PM Monday the 20th,  til it looks better with all modeling.

Then the sw USA closed 5H low next weekend will eventually send some GMEX moisture newd toward us as the 5H low moves bodily to the Easton the Rockies or splits eastward with ptype issues? 

 

[wdrag]

No need to cancel this thread... no one is excited by it.  However, keeping it going... will be a probable near miss for the coasts. The storm hasn't departed yet.  I can live with a miss since it was always projected uncertain.  IF it does snow coastal NJ and LI... it sticks.  Don't give up yet s shore Li and coastal NJ, especially if pressure adjustments permit a north surface wind and a bit of NNE boundary layer trajectory late tomorrow. Right now, not. 

[Volcanic Winter]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

No need to cancel this thread... no one is excited by it.  However, keeping it going... will be a probable near miss for the coasts. The storm hasn't departed yet.  I can live with a miss since it was always projected uncertain.  IF it does snow coastal NJ and LI... it sticks.  Don't give up yet s shore Li and coastal NJ, especially if pressure adjustments permit a north surface wind and a bit of NNE boundary layer trajectory late tomorrow. Right now, not. 

Thank you Walt, your efforts are very much appreciated. 

I was definitely paying attention for a bit of snow on snow, but yeah - modeling not looking good at the moment. We’ll see what happens. 

[wdrag]

29 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Thank you Walt, your efforts are very much appreciated. 

I was definitely paying attention for a bit of snow on snow, but yeah - modeling not looking good at the moment. We’ll see what happens. 

HANG IN THERE... EC AI AND NAVGEM STEADY for e tip LI.  Probably will miss and presuming the bl wind stays offshore, not happening for snow but the door is open slightly to adjustments for tomorrow night.  

 

added at1246P. EC continues T-0.3" amounts along the NJ coast most of LI and now FAR se New England. Its edging N in GA/Carolinas. 

[MJO812]