Discussion-OBS (if any) for Tuesday afternoon-night (Jan 21-early 22) northwest fringe snowfall from the departing southeast USA winter storm.

[wdrag]

Very simple thread that may not produce for most of our NYC subforum but LI and south of I80 in NJ seem threatened.  Again, this may be a null event for us but am sure it will have some conversation in what is our last half of January series of wintry opportunities. At 917A added 00z/18 CMCE, 00z and 06z/18 EPS and no GEFS since it was snow free this far northwest

[NEG NAO]

Maybe change the dates on this too around the 24th ? 21st to 22ndd looks like a total miss offshore ATM.....

[wdrag]

No changing dates at this time.  I know we have one possible 24-25 but still can see a grazer Central southern NJ e LI.  Never played this up but it's out there, especially tomorrow once we get through tonights mess. Thanks for waiting it out with me. 

[wdrag]

The very minor event the night of the 21st-early22nd along the coast might be more of CFP with steep lapse rates, decent snow growth snow showers, rather than the nw fringe of the departing se USA storm.  For now lets keep it going. 

Have seen the 24th possible event but no action til late Monday at the earliest.  It does seem to have possibilities of eventually looking as a nice snow event but holding off at least 24 hours - 8PM Monday the 20th,  til it looks better with all modeling.

Then the sw USA closed 5H low next weekend will eventually send some GMEX moisture newd toward us as the 5H low moves bodily to the Easton the Rockies or splits eastward with ptype issues? 

 

[wdrag]

No need to cancel this thread... no one is excited by it.  However, keeping it going... will be a probable near miss for the coasts. The storm hasn't departed yet.  I can live with a miss since it was always projected uncertain.  IF it does snow coastal NJ and LI... it sticks.  Don't give up yet s shore Li and coastal NJ, especially if pressure adjustments permit a north surface wind and a bit of NNE boundary layer trajectory late tomorrow. Right now, not. 

[Volcanic Winter]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

No need to cancel this thread... no one is excited by it.  However, keeping it going... will be a probable near miss for the coasts. The storm hasn't departed yet.  I can live with a miss since it was always projected uncertain.  IF it does snow coastal NJ and LI... it sticks.  Don't give up yet s shore Li and coastal NJ, especially if pressure adjustments permit a north surface wind and a bit of NNE boundary layer trajectory late tomorrow. Right now, not. 

Thank you Walt, your efforts are very much appreciated. 

I was definitely paying attention for a bit of snow on snow, but yeah - modeling not looking good at the moment. We’ll see what happens. 

[wdrag]

29 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Thank you Walt, your efforts are very much appreciated. 

I was definitely paying attention for a bit of snow on snow, but yeah - modeling not looking good at the moment. We’ll see what happens. 

HANG IN THERE... EC AI AND NAVGEM STEADY for e tip LI.  Probably will miss and presuming the bl wind stays offshore, not happening for snow but the door is open slightly to adjustments for tomorrow night.  

 

added at1246P. EC continues T-0.3" amounts along the NJ coast most of LI and now FAR se New England. Its edging N in GA/Carolinas. 

[MJO812]

[TJW014]

This will continue to pivot northwest. City may be in on some flakes. Might get more out of this than last night (1.75")

[allgame830]

42 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

This will continue to pivot northwest. City may be in on some flakes. Might get more out of this than last night (1.75")

Huh what are you talking about lol

[donsutherland1]

IMO, the region's best chance for flurries or light snow from the potentially historic Gulf Coast snowstorm will be southeastern NJ and easternmost Long Island. Perhaps the best case for New York City would be flurries or a dusting of snow, but that seems to be a low probability scenario right now.

The storm in question has the potential to bring measurable snow to Gulfport, Houston, Mobile, New Orleans, Pensacola, and Tallahassee. Only the legendary February 13-15, 1895 snowstorm did that. That storm produced no measurable snow in New York City.  If one widens the sample by selecting pairs of cities likely to receive measurable snowfall in the Gulf Coast/Southeast since 1950 and the New York City outcome, one finds:

Savannah/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/6 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

Mobile/Pensacola received measurable snowfall: 1/5 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC (0.8")

Mobile/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/4 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

New Orleans/Mobile received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

New Orleans/Savannah received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

That's since 1950. The Blizzard of 1899 brought snow to the Gulf Coast and heavy snow to New York City. However, that blizzard was blocked from going out to sea by a strong ridge to its east that had rapidly strengthened coupled with an extraordinarily deep trough coming eastward. This time around, the trough is much less impressive and the offshore ridge is centered much farther to the east, essentially assuring that the storm does not have to turn northward up the coast.

February 12, 1899:

February 13, 1899:

February 14, 1899:

EPS: January 22 12z

EPS:January 23 12z:

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, the region's best chance for flurries or light snow from the potentially historic Gulf Coast snowstorm will be southeastern NJ and easternmost Long Island. Perhaps the best case for New York City would be flurries or a dusting of snow, but that seems to be a low probability scenario right now.

The storm in question has the potential to bring measurable snow to Gulfport, Houston, Mobile, New Orleans, Pensacola, and Tallahassee. Only the legendary February 13-15, 1895 snowstorm did that. That storm produced no measurable snow in New York City.  If one widens the sample by selecting pairs of cities likely to receive measurable snowfall in the Gulf Coast/Southeast since 1950 and the New York City outcome, one finds:

Savannah/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/6 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

Mobile/Pensacola received measurable snowfall: 1/5 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC (0.8")

Mobile/Charleston received measurable snowfall: 0/4 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

New Orleans/Mobile received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

New Orleans/Savannah received measurable snowfall: 0/3 storms brought measurable snowfall to NYC

That's since 1950. The Blizzard of 1899 brought snow to the Gulf Coast and heavy snow to New York City. However, that blizzard was blocked from going out to sea by a strong ridge to its east that had rapidly strengthened coupled with an extraordinarily deep trough coming eastward. This time around, the trough is much less impressive and the offshore ridge is centered much farther to the east, essentially assuring that the storm does not have to turn northward up the coast.

February 12, 1899:

February 13, 1899:

February 14, 1899:

EPS: January 22 12z

EPS:January 23 12z:

February 1899 came from a completely different era though, right, Don? I don't think that kind of widespread extreme snowfall event is possible anymore, as we don't get those kinds of extreme ridges and troughs anymore and such a deep layer of extreme cold air on the east coast.

What was going on that winter- an el nino? That storm almost behaved like a really cold triple phaser.  Cape May's record of 34 inches from that storm is still the state record.  I put that storm right up there with March 1888, December 1947, March 1960, February 1983, March 1993, January 1996, PD2, January 2016, etc., as some of the greatest storms that have ever struck the east coast.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

February 1899 came from a completely different era though, right, Don? I don't think that kind of widespread extreme snowfall event is possible anymore, as we don't get those kinds of extreme ridges and troughs anymore and such a deep layer of extreme cold air on the east coast.

What was going on that winter- an el nino? That storm almost behaved like a really cold triple phaser.  Cape May's record of 34 inches from that storm is still the state record.  I put that storm right up there with March 1888, December 1947, March 1960, February 1983, March 1993, January 1996, PD2, January 2016, etc., as some of the greatest storms that have ever struck the east coast.

 

Yes. 1899 was a rare event. Nothing like that is likely. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. 1899 was a rare event. Nothing like that is likely. 

Going back through history of the 1800s and even the 1700s (some records go that far back, particularly in Philadelphia and New York, though unofficial), is there anything like the February 1899 snowstorm in the record books either before or since, Don?