John1122 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I don’t see anyone east of the plateau getting any storms. Look at this inversion between my house and Roan Mt. It thundered a lot here this morning at 37 degrees. I hope there's no severe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 My buddy in Jackson Tn said his temps went from 54-68 in the last 30-60 minutes and the sun is now out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: It thundered a lot here this morning at 37 degrees. I hope there's no severe. Those were elevated as the WAA storms jumped the 1st warm front. Pretty common for those to have thunder even in a cold environment. The storms later on will probably be more surface based. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 tornado warning up in Haywood county in southwest tn. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Memphis TN 749 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Henderson County in west Tennessee... Southeastern Gibson County in west Tennessee... Northwestern Hardeman County in west Tennessee... Southwestern Carroll County in west Tennessee... Southeastern Haywood County in west Tennessee... Madison County in west Tennessee... * Until 830 PM CST. * At 749 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Mercer, or 10 miles southwest of Jackson, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Jackson, Humboldt, Lexington, Fairview, Three Way, Bemis, Blue Goose, Bargerton, Mercer, Parkers Crossroads, Carroll, Medina, Hickory Flat, Neely, Cedar Grove, Huntersville, Beech Bluff, Westover, Madison Hall, and Uptonville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 TNC005-017-079-183-160230- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250216T0230Z/ Weakley TN-Benton TN-Carroll TN-Henry TN- 757 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEAKLEY...NORTHERN BENTON...NORTHERN CARROLL AND HENRY COUNTIES... At 757 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Paris Landing State Park, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Paris, McKenzie, Huntingdon, Paris Landing State Park, Dresden, Gleason, Atwood, Cottage Grove, Routon, Vale, Springville, Trezevant, Puryear, Big Sandy, Henry, McLemoresville, Sandhill, Mansfield, Old Springville, and Como. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3595 8865 3601 8870 3606 8869 3618 8873 3636 8853 3650 8834 3650 8806 3647 8805 3644 8806 3635 8798 3627 8794 3622 8795 3621 8794 TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 238DEG 44KT 3640 8812 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Vortex,you guys have a tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Lots of waves going on,in which seemingly is destroying the MJO signal.I'd probably run with the JMA right now because it seems to be the most tightly clustered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This secondary line developed this morning a little west of Knoxville and it moved through at 8:15 AM. I was getting ready for church when I heard my house cracking and then the power flickered multiple times. Had to be 50+mph winds. Anyone else have that? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, PowellVolz said: This secondary line developed this morning a little west of Knoxville and it moved through at 8:15 AM. I was getting ready for church when I heard my house cracking and then the power flickered multiple times. Had to be 50+mph winds. Anyone else have that? When i went to bed there was a few tor warned cells in MS and up up torwards the AL/TN line,i couldnt hang no more i was tired.But for us it pretty much behaved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: When i went to bed there was a few tor warned cells in MS and up up torwards the AL/TN line,i couldnt hang no more i was tired.But for us it pretty much behaved I went to bed around 11:30est when it was evident that a widespread severe episode across Tennessee wasn’t happening. I’ll stay up for my friends in MTn if the threat is realized but I texted him at 10:55 and told them “all good”. However I’m seeing potential tornado damage in Gibson Co that looks pretty significant. https://x.com/brianemfinger/status/1891002844959912108?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Vortex,you guys have a tornado? No tornadoes that I have seen or know of. The tornado warning ended up being dropped no long after I grabbed the screenshot of the image I have posted. I did not chase, I was just waiting for it come to me while at home. Northwest TN got hit hard with damage and from what i understand now a dam failure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Think the next chance of severe should come right after Met spring starts.Euro shows a ridge building on top of Japan which should be a ridge in the NE and heights falling from a trough into Mongolia which should/could be a -PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 But basically every long range model is showing severe so we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I thought these were interesting. Note Nashville proper is one of the hot spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 hours ago, vortexse93 said: No tornadoes that I have seen or know of. The tornado warning ended up being dropped no long after I grabbed the screenshot of the image I have posted. I did not chase, I was just waiting for it come to me while at home. Northwest TN got hit hard with damage and from what i understand now a dam failure. At least 1 confirmed tornado has been confirmed in NW TN and it was EF-2. More info can be found in the graphic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted Monday at 01:15 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:15 AM 3 hours ago, *Flash* said: I thought these were interesting. Note Nashville proper is one of the hot spots. These are really interesting. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Tuesday at 01:34 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 01:34 PM Rossby Wave is fixing to cause chaos with the RMMS signal the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 08:39 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 08:39 PM Still think we have a chance of severe after Met winter,seems like it could turn cold again right now shortly after.The next couple days there will be a trough going through East China and the Koreas with rising heights off east Japan,this should be a cold front around the 4th or 5th or a trough in the Plains/east. Right now the models are showing the East Asia jet retraction should be underway during this time.As we get around Met spring the MJO seemingly right now will strenghten as we get into Met spring into Africa and the Western IO as it moves towards the Maritime,this should also strenghten NINA once again in the upcoming couple weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted yesterday at 09:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:01 PM 19 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Still think we have a chance of severe after Met winter,seems like it could turn cold again right now shortly after.The next couple days there will be a trough going through East China and the Koreas with rising heights off east Japan,this should be a cold front around the 4th or 5th or a trough in the Plains/east. Right now the models are showing the East Asia jet retraction should be underway during this time.As we get around Met spring the MJO seemingly right now will strenghten as we get into Met spring into Africa and the Western IO as it moves towards the Maritime,this should also strenghten NINA once again in the upcoming couple weeks Haven’t looked in full detail but the CFS Supercell Composite is signaling something around late February into mid March with the chances being a lot better in the March timeframe which is when the MJO is expected to be in the IO from what I have seen. My patience maybe paying off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago I'd personally would stick with the JMA right now with the MJO.Some of the RMM'S are killing the MJO signal at least right now where it seems to be is from the Rossby wave train where it strenghtens the WWB,it should still be progressive,this is causing constructive interference with the MJO signal,even the majority of the Euro members shows this,the MJO should be progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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