Jed33 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Tor warning for east side of Kingsport now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 This is turning into quite the little severe outbreak! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 deaths confirmed by MoCo EMS. Sounds like in the Deer Lodge area, but not sure. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Man, that storm had some staying power, it stayed alive almost to the NC coast: Part one from Gainesboro to Charlotte Part two Charlotte to the coast: Nightime Microphysics: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 https://x.com/i/status/1887699363704582428 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Per MRX: In Morgan County, we have never had a confirmed tornado in February. The last February tornado we had in our forecast area was in 2011. Since 1950, we've only had 11 confirmed tornadoes in February, plus a Bradley County one in 1942. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 59 minutes ago, ladyjmayo said: Per MRX: In Morgan County, we have never had a confirmed tornado in February. The last February tornado we had in our forecast area was in 2011. Since 1950, we've only had 11 confirmed tornadoes in February, plus a Bradley County one in 1942. It was already confirmed EF-2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, ladyjmayo said: Per MRX: In Morgan County, we have never had a confirmed tornado in February. The last February tornado we had in our forecast area was in 2011. Since 1950, we've only had 11 confirmed tornadoes in February, plus a Bradley County one in 1942. https://www.wkrn.com/weather-headlines/feb-4th-most-active-tornado-month/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: It was already confirmed EF-2 Yes. This was after it was a confirmed EF-2. They were just saying this is the first one ever in February in Morgan Co. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I went to this area and and found multiple telephone poles and huge trees down in Ft City at Gresham Middle school. However I believe there’s damage that no one has found or reported yet because there was a CC drop for one frame close to that area. However CC drops are usually one frame or 5 min behind. So if you back the radar up one frame, Black Oak Ridge is where the storm was located one frame before and it’s probably 400-500 feet above the valley floor. This is about the time the couplet upticked for a frame or two. I think the funnel was just off the ground most of the time and was bouncing off the tops of ridges right before it got to downtown. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I went to this area and and found multiple telephone poles and huge trees down in Ft City at Gresham Middle school. However I believe there’s damage that no one has found or reported yet because there was a CC drop for one frame close to that area. However CC drops are usually one frame or 5 min behind. So if you back the radar up one frame, Black Oak Ridge is where the storm was located one frame before and it’s probably 400-500 feet above the valley floor. This is about the time the couplet upticked for a frame or two. I think the funnel was just off the ground most of the time and was bouncing off the tops of ridges right before it got to downtown. The area that is circled in your attachment is right over my house. It was windy and raining sideways……then the wind rapidly increased, things started flying around and we took off to a closet. I’ve got a gif from RadarScope but can’t get it to load, but here’s two screenshots that I was able to get:. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Greyhound said: The area that is circled in your attachment is right over my house. It was windy and raining sideways……then the wind rapidly increased, things started flying around and we took off to a closet. I’ve got a gif from RadarScope but can’t get it to load, but here’s two screenshots that I was able to get: . I have a friend that lives on Lynnview in Ft City. He said he’s never seen or heard anything like that. I live in Halls off Emory at 33 and i could hear the wind blowing through the trees on top of Black Oak. It was a 5 min nonstop roar that people talk about hearing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Continuing to watch for a potential chase day towards the mid to late Feb. As of right now, the CFS is continuing to show the potential for convective storms towards the middle of the month, potentially towards the end of the month. For temps, long range models are continuing to show above avg temps between Day 8 to Day 14. Anything after Day 15 temps begin to return to normal before another shot of cold arctic airmass returns to the region by the start of March. If this is true, the cold arctic airmass could delay the start to the spring season for portions of the country. While this is not set in stone, it is something to consider going forward and picking out potential chase days and/or weeks going into March (will be another discussion for another day). The real question of the next couple of weeks will the teleconnections be aligned to help better the chances? At this moment, it is hard to say as several of the teleconnections will be out of the phase to help support or even enhance the chances of a favorable storm track. Will have to continue to watch and monitor the models over the next several days and see how things play out. If Feb. decides to be bust this year, I will begin to focus on the MAM to AMJ timeframe. There is nothing guarantee of course, this is me just looking forward to the 2025 Spring Season and hoping to get a little tease before peak season gets here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 On 2/8/2025 at 11:09 AM, vortexse93 said: Continuing to watch for a potential chase day towards the mid to late Feb. As of right now, the CFS is continuing to show the potential for convective storms towards the middle of the month, potentially towards the end of the month. For temps, long range models are continuing to show above avg temps between Day 8 to Day 14. Anything after Day 15 temps begin to return to normal before another shot of cold arctic airmass returns to the region by the start of March. If this is true, the cold arctic airmass could delay the start to the spring season for portions of the country. While this is not set in stone, it is something to consider going forward and picking out potential chase days and/or weeks going into March (will be another discussion for another day). The real question of the next couple of weeks will the teleconnections be aligned to help better the chances? At this moment, it is hard to say as several of the teleconnections will be out of the phase to help support or even enhance the chances of a favorable storm track. Will have to continue to watch and monitor the models over the next several days and see how things play out. If Feb. decides to be bust this year, I will begin to focus on the MAM to AMJ timeframe. There is nothing guarantee of course, this is me just looking forward to the 2025 Spring Season and hoping to get a little tease before peak season gets here. Think we are fixing to have lift-off into March.The AAM should /possibly go back to positive for a brief time then it should/could go back to negative.The convection the CFS is showing is quite similar to the last couple cycles of the MJO,this should also even strenghten NINA into spring 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 16 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Think we are fixing to have lift-off into March.The AAM should /possibly go back to positive for a brief time then it should/could go back to negative.The convection the CFS is showing is quite similar to the last couple cycles of the MJO,this should also even strenghten NINA into spring Quite possibly, but the AO is expected to be negative as well in this time frame and us being in Feb into early March has me concern that the cold arctic airmass could contaminate some of the other teleconnections and mess up the pattern. I’m not saying it will or will not, I am just saying it is something to watch for going into March. I do like the MJO and ENSO phase we are in or trending towards. Maybe a strong enough MJO in the right phase could off set the AO but time will tell. Also have to see the NAO and PNA as both weren’t in good phases either but it only takes one to make or break a forecast. For now, have my eyes set for Saturday and will get back to the MAM after this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Looking like Saturday is going to be active. SPC has their D5 15% up into the valley now. and this…. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Webb going for the 2011 and 1974 analogs on X. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Saturday... Model guidance continues to forecast a strong upper-level trough moving through the southern Plains and into the Southeast. Some modest slowing of the trough has been noted, however. The trough will promote the deepening of the surface low in the ArkLaTex vicinity during the afternoon with further deepening expected into the evening as it generally progresses north-northeastward within the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Moisture return will have begun Friday evening and will continue Saturday. Guidance shows a consistent signal for mid 60s F dewpoints extending into much of Louisiana/Mississippi, and Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible closer to the Gulf Coast. Very strong wind fields are anticipated throughout the troposphere. Shear will be strong and, despite more modest mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will be more than adequate for severe storms. The current expectation is for warm advection precipitation to be ongoing early in the period and for it not to make much, if any, southward progress until the late afternoon. A Pacific front in East Texas/Sabine Valley into the ArkLaTex may be the initial zone for stronger convective development. By the late afternoon onward, the cold front will begin to surge south and east. The low-level jet should remain strong into the afternoon and then increase to 50-70 kts during the evening. As the cold front surges, shear vectors will acquire a greater cross-boundary component. This strongly forced line will be capable of scattered to widespread damaging winds along with the threat for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. One of the main questions that remain will be the degree of the tornado threat, which would increase with any discrete activity ahead of the cold front. Given the weak capping and strong forcing, pre-frontal discrete storms are plausible. The ECMWF shows some hint of this from central Louisiana into adjacent Mississippi. The eastern and northern extent of the greatest severe threat are also in question, but the intense low-level jet could produce severe-caliber gusts even with relatively shallow convection. The overall pattern, along with signals in both deterministic and ML guidance, suggest 30% severe probabilities are warranted for Saturday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Saturday looks like two rounds in the Deep South. A few weeks later in the season this system is strong enough to recharge for Round 2. As it is, the earlier may stabilize things north of US-82 Miss, I-20 Bama. Also looks like round 2 at night, so stable would be good! Then I-40 looks like another huge slug of rain. WPC has them getting more than southern Tennessee did early week. We'll see. Either way many folks are racking up impressive 7-day totals. Threats seem to all come together! Severe Sat. Feb. 15 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I won’t be surprised to see the 15% get pulled back out of Tennessee for tomorrow’s update. Not a good LP placement for February in Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 hours ago, PowellVolz said: I won’t be surprised to see the 15% get pulled back out of Tennessee for tomorrow’s update. Not a good LP placement for February in Tennessee I was wrong…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Saturday morning to the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. As this trough becomes negatively tilted after 00Z, the surface low will rapidly deepen by 10+ mb as it moves from central Arkansas to northeast Ohio. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low and sharpen through the evening before advancing east during the late evening and into the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An expansive region of strengthening low-level flow will advance a broad warm sector northward across the Gulf Coast states Saturday morning. North of this warm front within a 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms are expected. Weak instability and shear should result in mostly sub-severe storms, but isolated large hail may be possible. Expect persistent thunderstorm activity along the diffuse cold front from far East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the morning to early afternoon with mostly sub-severe storms. However, richer theta-e will interact with the frontal zone by mid-to-late afternoon which should result in deeper, more robust updrafts. In addition, stronger mid-level flow will start to overspread the warm sector, promoting stronger deep-layer shear. Supercells are anticipated from southeast Arkansas to southwest Tennessee by this time with a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. However, this window of more discrete storm mode will likely be fairly limited as the cold front starts to surge east around 00Z and a squall line develops. The environment ahead of this squall line will remain favorable for severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes through the evening. Eventually this squall line will encounter weaker instability across central/eastern Tennessee and Alabama and the severe weather threat will likely start to wane. One exception may be across far southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and into the Florida Panhandle. After 06Z, some influence of the approaching mid-level vorticity maximum could result in more robust convection across this region where greater instability will remain. The low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across the region during this timeframe with STP values peaking perhaps around 2 to 3. 12Z CAM guidance suggests the potential for some pre-frontal development late in the period, but they are not overly strong at this time. If more robust pre-frontal storms become likely, in addition to the QLCS threat associated with the squall line, greater tornado probabilities could be needed across this area. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 On 2/10/2025 at 10:37 AM, vortexse93 said: Quite possibly, but the AO is expected to be negative as well in this time frame and us being in Feb into early March has me concern that the cold arctic airmass could contaminate some of the other teleconnections and mess up the pattern. I’m not saying it will or will not, I am just saying it is something to watch for going into March. I do like the MJO and ENSO phase we are in or trending towards. Maybe a strong enough MJO in the right phase could off set the AO but time will tell. Also have to see the NAO and PNA as both weren’t in good phases either but it only takes one to make or break a forecast. For now, have my eyes set for Saturday and will get back to the MAM after this week. Still think the MJO is having constructive interference.This whole pattern is quite like what we seen in Mid Jan.I still think shortly after Met spring starts it should get quite active once again,but we should see several days of BN temps upcoming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Still think the MJO is having constructive interference.This whole pattern is quite like what we seen in Mid Jan.I still think shortly after Met spring starts it should get quite active once again,but we should see several days of BN temps upcoming What makes you think that with the MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nothing like good ole' Dixie being Dixie with a QLCS event occurring near night time. If model data continues to show QLCS, which I suspect it will be, will likely not be chasing tomorrow. While temps and dew points will be more than sufficient, timing and storm mode does not appear to favorable at this time. Will continue to watch and monitor situation for the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, vortexse93 said: What makes you think that with the MJO? JMO and could be wrong.but the MJO and the Euro the signal is getting disorted by a KW into NH,the CFS as of late is showing this along with the Euro and even the JMA shows this,the MJO is moving fast and should be into the IO as we get into Met spring,the map i showed up above even the AAM which was doing its cycles it flips once again the next couple days,it did the same around the 15th of Jan,it showed you a pattern change upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Could be some storms ahead of that line 16 hours ago, vortexse93 said: Nothing like good ole' Dixie being Dixie with a QLCS event occurring near night time. If model data continues to show QLCS, which I suspect it will be, will likely not be chasing tomorrow. While temps and dew points will be more than sufficient, timing and storm mode does not appear to favorable at this time. Will continue to watch and monitor situation for the next several hours. Could be some discrete cells ahead of that line into the early evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nasty. Any strong winds & trees come down easily with the saturated grounds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: Could be some storms ahead of that line Could be some discrete cells ahead of that line into the early evening Unfortunately where those discrete cells develop at is in bad chasing terrain (ie hills, trees,and etc) plus near night time spells no go for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I don’t see anyone east of the plateau getting any storms. Look at this inversion between my house and Roan Mt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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