TV Severe Weather2025-?

[jaxjagman]

On 4/14/2025 at 3:50 PM, nrgjeff said:

Yes the center of the action should gradually shift north and west into the Great Plains. Southern season still has a few more weeks though. See if this weekend Plains system can hold together into the South next week. 

Then the far extended end of April forecast is very up in the air. Looks like decent flow is forecast across the Lower 48. Whether it's southwest flow (Plains) or choppy remains to be seen. Choppy version would be less intense but might allow rain into our region.

Looks messy everywhere,dont look like no big tor outbreak like twitter is telling the world..lol.Our area for most of us shows piss poor lapse rates no lift,etc.,etc to early to say next?

[nrgjeff]

Twitter is now melting down because the hype casts will bust. X marks the spot for poor science, lol!

It never looked like a classic sequence, just seasonable flow returning after the Gulf Coast scouring this week. Just seasonable certainly means some sloppy days. Easter Sunday looks like a glancing blow Mid-South to Midwest. Then it looks like rain gets in here next week, but I'm not sure how much severe.

Big concern (Plains chasers) is we go from sloppy to capped, with few classic days. For the South that's sloppy to nothing. Much of that (Plains) depends on QPF this weekend into next week to set up (or not) the beginning of May. Drought Monitor has improved markedly but needs more work.

[vortexse93]

On 4/16/2025 at 10:41 AM, nrgjeff said:

Twitter is now melting down because the hype casts will bust. X marks the spot for poor science, lol!

It never looked like a classic sequence, just seasonable flow returning after the Gulf Coast scouring this week. Just seasonable certainly means some sloppy days. Easter Sunday looks like a glancing blow Mid-South to Midwest. Then it looks like rain gets in here next week, but I'm not sure how much severe.

Big concern (Plains chasers) is we go from sloppy to capped, with few classic days. For the South that's sloppy to nothing. Much of that (Plains) depends on QPF this weekend into next week to set up (or not) the beginning of May. Drought Monitor has improved markedly but needs more work.

I just looked at the upcoming days for late April into early May, and it appears that there could be some decent chase days before we get into late May. However, I do not see a great sequence as of this moment unless you live or planning to travel towards CO in that time frame. MJO should be in Phase 2/3 by mid-May which should help enhance the sub-tropical jet by then, but time will only tell. Unfortunately for me, I will not be able to chase until early May at the very earliest so really need decent sequence sometime in early May to mid-May. Ideally, would like to target TX as I am only 6 hours so driving back will not be too difficult for myself. Will continue to see how the rest of this month goes and make a decision from there. Ideally, any chasing towards Tornado Alley will be with someone and not solo as there are to many distractions and hazards to keep up with for a solo chase.  

 

Locally, there is not anything that screams chase day within the next couple of weeks, so any chasing in Dixie is more than likely done for me until hurricane season. Models do show a couple of potential days towards next week that could work, but confidence in those days remain low as upper level pattern does not scream severe weather at this time. I am keeping my eyes open for any potential low risk days as those days could be more beneficial for myself.  In the past, I have some success in the lower risk days (i.e. Marginal and Slight days) than some of the Enhance and Moderate days as we head into the months of May and June.

[nrgjeff]

Guess we get decent coverage of rain.. Referencing my post in the main spring discussion thread. 
Then the WPC discussion reads like something out of summer. Are we really doing this so early?

National pattern too. Days and days of Marginal to Slight on the Texas Caprock. Crap! I should be out there this week.