TV Severe Weather2025-?

[jaxjagman]

On 4/14/2025 at 3:50 PM, nrgjeff said:

Yes the center of the action should gradually shift north and west into the Great Plains. Southern season still has a few more weeks though. See if this weekend Plains system can hold together into the South next week. 

Then the far extended end of April forecast is very up in the air. Looks like decent flow is forecast across the Lower 48. Whether it's southwest flow (Plains) or choppy remains to be seen. Choppy version would be less intense but might allow rain into our region.

Looks messy everywhere,dont look like no big tor outbreak like twitter is telling the world..lol.Our area for most of us shows piss poor lapse rates no lift,etc.,etc to early to say next?

[nrgjeff]

Twitter is now melting down because the hype casts will bust. X marks the spot for poor science, lol!

It never looked like a classic sequence, just seasonable flow returning after the Gulf Coast scouring this week. Just seasonable certainly means some sloppy days. Easter Sunday looks like a glancing blow Mid-South to Midwest. Then it looks like rain gets in here next week, but I'm not sure how much severe.

Big concern (Plains chasers) is we go from sloppy to capped, with few classic days. For the South that's sloppy to nothing. Much of that (Plains) depends on QPF this weekend into next week to set up (or not) the beginning of May. Drought Monitor has improved markedly but needs more work.