nrgjeff Posted Friday at 03:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:11 PM Well the Mid-South looks a lot more interesting this morning than it did just last evening. I'm writing Friday for Sunday. Parameters have not been a question now for days. Wind shear will be there with plenty of turning. Instability should happen. Models are starting to key in on this secondary WF that usually comes up from the Deep South. Saturday showers should drop a boundary. Sunday synoptic WF will be up in the MIdwest, but that's not my concern. They might have problems becoming unstable enough for classic cells. Arkansas is a different story. Discrete storm mode is implied and that rolls into the Mid-South by Sunday evening. Prefrontal trough or convergence zone should develop ahead of the synoptic CF. Intersection of that and the outflow boundary, plus several surrounding counties will become an area of interest. Too early to pinpoint it yet. Pattern recognition at both the synoptic and regional level points to an interesting Sunday in the Mid-South. Hopefully it'll be junk by Sunday night in East Tenn. Shelter at 3am sux. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Friday at 03:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:51 PM I hate nighttime tornadoes. Plus add in the LLJ. Just not good. Then we have middle of next weeks possible severe wx. YUCK! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 06:45 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 06:45 PM 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Well the Mid-South looks a lot more interesting this morning than it did just last evening. I'm writing Friday for Sunday. Parameters have not been a question now for days. Wind shear will be there with plenty of turning. Instability should happen. Models are starting to key in on this secondary WF that usually comes up from the Deep South. Saturday showers should drop a boundary. Sunday synoptic WF will be up in the MIdwest, but that's not my concern. They might have problems becoming unstable enough for classic cells. Arkansas is a different story. Discrete storm mode is implied and that rolls into the Mid-South by Sunday evening. Prefrontal trough or convergence zone should develop ahead of the synoptic CF. Intersection of that and the outflow boundary, plus several surrounding counties will become an area of interest. Too early to pinpoint it yet. Pattern recognition at both the synoptic and regional level points to an interesting Sunday in the Mid-South. Hopefully it'll be junk by Sunday night in East Tenn. Shelter at 3am sux. Definite looks better than the last couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 07:02 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 07:02 PM Keep watching the MJO as we get into April.Into the first week of April there looks to be a ERW into the WH and a KW that collides with it moving from the Easterm Pac the next few days.this seemingly should strenghten the MJO signal into the WH,really believe you run with the JMA at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 07:19 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 07:19 PM 4 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Well the Mid-South looks a lot more interesting this morning than it did just last evening. I'm writing Friday for Sunday. Parameters have not been a question now for days. Wind shear will be there with plenty of turning. Instability should happen. Models are starting to key in on this secondary WF that usually comes up from the Deep South. Saturday showers should drop a boundary. Sunday synoptic WF will be up in the MIdwest, but that's not my concern. They might have problems becoming unstable enough for classic cells. Arkansas is a different story. Discrete storm mode is implied and that rolls into the Mid-South by Sunday evening. Prefrontal trough or convergence zone should develop ahead of the synoptic CF. Intersection of that and the outflow boundary, plus several surrounding counties will become an area of interest. Too early to pinpoint it yet. Pattern recognition at both the synoptic and regional level points to an interesting Sunday in the Mid-South. Hopefully it'll be junk by Sunday night in East Tenn. Shelter at 3am sux. I wouldnt be surprised to see a upgrade from enhanced in the Mid South and surrounding areas the next update if not tonight,still looks murky in our parts but better today some what 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 07:37 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 07:37 PM Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Friday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:18 PM 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Boundaries! HARD PASS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Friday at 11:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:22 PM I'm skeptical of the tornado threat all the way to I-65 Sunday night. Feels like maybe sups in Arkansas grow upscale into a QLCS in West Tenn. Few tors possible out there. Perhaps just straight line in Middle Tenn. Hopefully East Tenn is just good sleeping without a sound machine to make the thunder. Refer to official forecasts though! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 11:32 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:32 PM 2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: I'm skeptical of the tornado threat all the way to I-65 Sunday night. Feels like maybe sups in Arkansas grow upscale into a QLCS in West Tenn. Few tors possible out there. Perhaps just straight line in Middle Tenn. Hopefully East Tenn is just good sleeping without a sound machine to make the thunder. Refer to official forecasts though! Might be best to see what the mesoscales shows tomorrow afternoon.Next week has a chance but the boundary might be the bigger deal with some convective training cells could cause some major hydro issues,where thats at who knows but right now the Euro and GFS shows NW/TN to Ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Saturday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:49 PM So far the 12Z CAMs continue to show the results of a poorly timed short-wave upstairs. The latter can be modeled well 36 hours out. Midday Sunday wave does not fire, and just pulls the LLJ away. Late Sunday short-wave tries to fire in Ark. but the LLJ is shunted off to the east. It results in one of multiple failure modes. Sups come off the Ozark Plateau and die in the Delta (lower elevation) under what's left of the cap. Sups go instaline forced on the back CF because the lead pre-frontal trough failed. Finally too much junk precip. Never really goes, but that's the least likely failure scenario. My initial excitement about Mid-South boundaries has faded. Looks like a total waste of a perfectly timed 250 mb jet coming out of AR/LA. Could still be enough, but doubtful during the day. Unfortunately could be at night, but I'm really not that worried. Note that the SPC is considering a Moderate at the update time. Everyone go with official information. I'm just being skeptical. Funny the last 3 months I've been optimistic on snow and pessimistic on severe. Well 2025 is another weird year overall. Midwest synoptic boundaries may end up the place to be, despite less CAPE. Dynamics and kinematics look good up that way. SPC Is talkin' poss. upgrade Mid-South but I'd be looking at the Midwest. Again, go with official info. not my poor attitude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Saturday at 04:45 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 04:45 PM 21 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: So far the 12Z CAMs continue to show the results of a poorly timed short-wave upstairs. The latter can be modeled well 36 hours out. Midday Sunday wave does not fire, and just pulls the LLJ away. Late Sunday short-wave tries to fire in Ark. but the LLJ is shunted off to the east. It results in one of multiple failure modes. Sups come off the Ozark Plateau and die in the Delta (lower elevation) under what's left of the cap. Sups go instaline forced on the back CF because the lead pre-frontal trough failed. Finally too much junk precip. Never really goes, but that's the least likely failure scenario. My initial excitement about Mid-South boundaries has faded. Looks like a total waste of a perfectly timed 250 mb jet coming out of AR/LA. Could still be enough, but doubtful during the day. Unfortunately could be at night, but I'm really not that worried. Note that the SPC is considering a Moderate at the update time. Everyone go with official information. I'm just being skeptical. Funny the last 3 months I've been optimistic on snow and pessimistic on severe. Well 2025 is another weird year overall. Midwest synoptic boundaries may end up the place to be, despite less CAPE. Dynamics and kinematics look good up that way. SPC Is talkin' poss. upgrade Mid-South but I'd be looking at the Midwest. Again, go with official info. not my poor attitude! Cutting jobs at the NWS,its really sad how bad these models will become than they already are.I really think hes hoping for a weather disaster and he will come out and say"This is why we need AI technology" and blame the NWS.I know we arent suppose to talk politics and i wont say no more.I cant imagine what emotions you guys as mets are going through right now,i'm sure it's not good and healthy.But i'm really glad to have you mets posting here,its like going to school once again i learn for you guys.So thanks !! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Saturday at 04:51 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 04:51 PM 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Cutting jobs at the NWS,its really sad how bad these models will become than they already are.I really think hes hoping for a weather disaster and he will come out and say"This is why we need AI technology" and blame the NWS.I know we arent suppose to talk politics and i wont say no more.I cant imagine what emotions you guys as mets are going through right now,i'm sure it's not good and healthy.But i'm really glad to have you mets posting here,its like going to school once again i learn for you guys.So thanks to all of you !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Saturday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:22 PM Thank you @jaxjagman we can talk about it in here because it impacts forecast accuracy. It’s not really political. Biggest immediate concern is only one ballon a day from some Northern Plains locations vs the usual twice a day. That will hurt NWP performance. Then all the other staffing issues are awful too. We shall improvise, adapt, overcome. And watch Heartbreak Ridge, ha! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 03:25 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:25 AM Going to need a boat next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Sunday at 02:41 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:41 PM 11 hours ago, Matthew70 said: Going to need a boat next week. Biggest threat still looks to be to our west,but yeah we could get some healthy rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Sunday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:47 PM Virtual Target: Hayti MO. Today isn't worth a 6-hour drive though. Sagging synoptic boundary will be approaching. Key is the secondary boundary that should develop from the MO Bootheel east into Tenn. Cells riding it are favored. Trouble is few River crossings. Who wants to get stuck at the Mississippi River with no crossing? Morning wave should exit the target area in time for subtle lift from the evening wave by 00Z. Late start is also suboptimal for chasing. However the midday subsidence will promote ample heating. Dewpoints should hold steady. Near ideal upper-level jet noses in at the right time. Biggest inhibitor of a higher Outlook Category is the slow response of the LLJ. That's related to the lead wave jacking the wind fields. Great news for the storm anxious. No Moderate I figure. That said it could be a bit windy overnight. Straight line wind 45% but no hatch to avoid the MDT. If SPC upgrades check and see if it's for straight wind. Meanwhile the Elite Eight looks like more elite hoops today! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Sunday at 03:26 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:26 PM 39 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Virtual Target: Hayti MO. Today isn't worth a 6-hour drive though. Sagging synoptic boundary will be approaching. Key is the secondary boundary that should develop from the MO Bootheel east into Tenn. Cells riding it are favored. Trouble is few River crossings. Who wants to get stuck at the Mississippi River with no crossing? Morning wave should exit the target area in time for subtle lift from the evening wave by 00Z. Late start is also suboptimal for chasing. However the midday subsidence will promote ample heating. Dewpoints should hold steady. Near ideal upper-level jet noses in at the right time. Biggest inhibitor of a higher Outlook Category is the slow response of the LLJ. That's related to the lead wave jacking the wind fields. Great news for the storm anxious. No Moderate I figure. That said it could be a bit windy overnight. Straight line wind 45% but no hatch to avoid the MDT. If SPC upgrades check and see if it's for straight wind. Meanwhile the Elite Eight looks like more elite hoops today! Hopefully Auburn plays like they did into the 2nd half against Michigan,that first half was brutal trying to be cute with the b-ball,so many turnovers.Staying home drinking beer and watching Auburn and probably yelling at my TV and listening to my wife saying hush 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Sunday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:07 PM Yeah I'd rather bark at my TV both Tennessee and Auburn, than bark at cells going linear too fast, or getting blocked at the River. Charles Barkley had very deep thoughts about the first half and taking care of the ball. In the game of basketball, the most important thing is the basketball! Classic Chuck. Anyway, still not MDT. Just a huge wind 45% no hatch, lol. TOR is still 10% hatched. I agree that hodographs will enlarge this evening. In some cases lines can actually break up and go super. I'm not feeling it today, but QLCS tornadoes are quite possible overnight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Monday at 03:37 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:37 AM Tornado hit McEwen,damage reports coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Monday at 05:10 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 05:10 AM A tor warned cell here,no tor, hail,wind and one of the best light shows ive seen in years 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Monday at 06:02 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:02 AM 51 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: A tor warned cell here,no tor, hail,wind and one of the best light shows ive seen in years Definitely a light show. Strange thunder was not that loud. We had no hail or wind thankfully. Went right near us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Monday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:30 PM Fairview tornado last night From Boyd 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Monday at 11:51 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:51 PM US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee *** 5:29 p.m. update: We have also confirmed an EF-1 tornado (95 mph winds) touched down in McEwen/Humphreys County (150 yards wide/1.7 miles long). We may be surveying additional damage sites tomorrow. *** We have so far confirmed 3 tornadoes in Middle Tennessee resulting from last night's storms. This is preliminary information, but we can tell you that an EF-2 tornado (120 mph winds) touched down in Hampshire/Maury County (400 yards wide, 5.1 miles long). An EF-1 tornado (100 mph winds) touched down in Mt. Pleasant/Maury County (300 yards wide, 4.1 miles long). And an EF-0 tornado (85 mph winds) touched down in Fairview along the Hickman/Williamson County line (150 yards wide, 2.2 miles long). We are currently surveying one more damage site, so there may be a 4th confirmed tornado. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted yesterday at 12:42 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:42 AM I do not share photos on here often but this was a beauty in NE AR and MO Bootheel region. While I did some minor edits on this picture, the sky was so green it is impossible to describe. Also, one of the only times that I have ever seen the inflow band so clear out in this area also. In all, a successful chase. Warning!!!! If you want to share the photo on other social media platforms or websites, come to me first before sharing! This is a teaser of what I have on camera but wanted to share with the group on here at least since I have been busy the last few days. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Well then. Looks like SPC is going with that gnarly RRFS which is phat supercells all over the Mid-South. We'll see. Training supercells part is pretty likely regardless of how discrete. Should be an absolute mess. Valid Wednesday (and night) April 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Haven’t been on in a while. Have things changed? Don’t see a topic about Oklahoma today. I usually see Oklahoma topics in the central western states forum. But no bueno. All silent. Or there is and I’m not looking in the right place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago I will not be chasing tomorrow unless something just happens to develop really close to me. I will be saving my energy for Saturday potentially as I will be free all day to chase. Virtual Chase Target: My chase target will initially be focused on the isolated storm cell that the HRRR has developing all by itself in an very favorable environment which makes my key player as of now. My secondary target will be tail end of storms in southeastern AR in the event the lone cell fails to develop in MS. The spacing between the first line and the secondary line in South-Central Arkansas should be sufficient for storms to take advantage of the environment. If I wanted to be more aggressive, I would target the secondary line, but that is near some unfavorable terrain, but could still worth attempting as it approaches the MS RVR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, vortexse93 said: I will not be chasing tomorrow unless something just happens to develop really close to me. I will be saving my energy for Saturday potentially as I will be free all day to chase. Virtual Chase Target: My chase target will initially be focused on the isolated storm cell that the HRRR has developing all by itself in an very favorable environment which makes my key player as of now. My secondary target will be tail end of storms in southeastern AR in the event the lone cell fails to develop in MS. The spacing between the first line and the secondary line in South-Central Arkansas should be sufficient for storms to take advantage of the environment. If I wanted to be more aggressive, I would target the secondary line, but that is near some unfavorable terrain, but could still worth attempting as it approaches the MS RVR. Stuck in town.Wife is working out of town tomorrow and her mom has a doc appt, i have to take her 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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