TV Severe Weather2025-?

[nrgjeff]

Well the Mid-South looks a lot more interesting this morning than it did just last evening. I'm writing Friday for Sunday. 

Parameters have not been a question now for days. Wind shear will be there with plenty of turning. Instability should happen. Models are starting to key in on this secondary WF that usually comes up from the Deep South. Saturday showers should drop a boundary. 

Sunday synoptic WF will be up in the MIdwest, but that's not my concern. They might have problems becoming unstable enough for classic cells. Arkansas is a different story. Discrete storm mode is implied and that rolls into the Mid-South by Sunday evening.

Prefrontal trough or convergence zone should develop ahead of the synoptic CF. Intersection of that and the outflow boundary, plus several surrounding counties will become an area of interest. Too early to pinpoint it yet.

Pattern recognition at both the synoptic and regional level points to an interesting Sunday in the Mid-South. Hopefully it'll be junk by Sunday night in East Tenn. Shelter at 3am sux.

[Matthew70]

I hate nighttime tornadoes.  Plus add in the LLJ.  Just not good.  
Then we have middle of next weeks possible severe wx.  YUCK!

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Well the Mid-South looks a lot more interesting this morning than it did just last evening. I'm writing Friday for Sunday. 

Parameters have not been a question now for days. Wind shear will be there with plenty of turning. Instability should happen. Models are starting to key in on this secondary WF that usually comes up from the Deep South. Saturday showers should drop a boundary. 

Sunday synoptic WF will be up in the MIdwest, but that's not my concern. They might have problems becoming unstable enough for classic cells. Arkansas is a different story. Discrete storm mode is implied and that rolls into the Mid-South by Sunday evening.

Prefrontal trough or convergence zone should develop ahead of the synoptic CF. Intersection of that and the outflow boundary, plus several surrounding counties will become an area of interest. Too early to pinpoint it yet.

Pattern recognition at both the synoptic and regional level points to an interesting Sunday in the Mid-South. Hopefully it'll be junk by Sunday night in East Tenn. Shelter at 3am sux.

Definite looks better than the last couple days.

[jaxjagman]

Keep watching the MJO as we get into April.Into the first week of April there looks to be a ERW  into the WH and  a KW that collides with it moving from the Easterm Pac the next few days.this seemingly should strenghten the MJO signal into the WH,really believe you run with the JMA at this time

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Well the Mid-South looks a lot more interesting this morning than it did just last evening. I'm writing Friday for Sunday. 

Parameters have not been a question now for days. Wind shear will be there with plenty of turning. Instability should happen. Models are starting to key in on this secondary WF that usually comes up from the Deep South. Saturday showers should drop a boundary. 

Sunday synoptic WF will be up in the MIdwest, but that's not my concern. They might have problems becoming unstable enough for classic cells. Arkansas is a different story. Discrete storm mode is implied and that rolls into the Mid-South by Sunday evening.

Prefrontal trough or convergence zone should develop ahead of the synoptic CF. Intersection of that and the outflow boundary, plus several surrounding counties will become an area of interest. Too early to pinpoint it yet.

Pattern recognition at both the synoptic and regional level points to an interesting Sunday in the Mid-South. Hopefully it'll be junk by Sunday night in East Tenn. Shelter at 3am sux.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a upgrade from enhanced in the Mid South and surrounding areas the next update if not tonight,still looks murky in our parts but better today some what

[jaxjagman]

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
   OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across
   an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower
   Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys.  Very large hail, damaging winds,
   and strong tornadoes are expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will
   move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded
   shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface
   low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front
   will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while
   dryline will be present in East Texas.

   ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley...
   Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm
   activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface
   low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these
   storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact
   destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio.
   Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards,
   but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree
   of surface heating that occurs.

   Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be
   impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone
   where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level
   wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating
   boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to
   it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and
   strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts.

   ...Mid-South...
   Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected
   to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being
   typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an
   elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no
   thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface
   heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the
   cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some
   indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up.
   Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase
   along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk.
   Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas
   given the southward displacement from the surface low. However,
   forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be
   more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even
   without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface
   heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe
   storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread
   damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes.

   ...East Texas/Sabine Valley...
   A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in
   this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse
   rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells
   capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and
   tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and
   lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time.

   ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
   OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across
   an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower
   Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys.  Very large hail, damaging winds,
   and strong tornadoes are expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will
   move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded
   shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface
   low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front
   will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while
   dryline will be present in East Texas.

   ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley...
   Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm
   activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface
   low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these
   storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact
   destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio.
   Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards,
   but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree
   of surface heating that occurs.

   Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be
   impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone
   where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level
   wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating
   boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to
   it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and
   strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts.

   ...Mid-South...
   Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected
   to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being
   typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an
   elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no
   thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface
   heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the
   cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some
   indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up.
   Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase
   along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk.
   Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas
   given the southward displacement from the surface low. However,
   forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be
   more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even
   without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface
   heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe
   storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread
   damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes.

   ...East Texas/Sabine Valley...
   A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in
   this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse
   rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells
   capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and
   tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and
   lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time.

   ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025

Boundaries!   HARD PASS! 

[nrgjeff]

I'm skeptical of the tornado threat all the way to I-65 Sunday night. Feels like maybe sups in Arkansas grow upscale into a QLCS in West Tenn. Few tors possible out there. Perhaps just straight line in Middle Tenn. Hopefully East Tenn is just good sleeping without a sound machine to make the thunder. Refer to official forecasts though!

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

I'm skeptical of the tornado threat all the way to I-65 Sunday night. Feels like maybe sups in Arkansas grow upscale into a QLCS in West Tenn. Few tors possible out there. Perhaps just straight line in Middle Tenn. Hopefully East Tenn is just good sleeping without a sound machine to make the thunder. Refer to official forecasts though!

Might be best to see what the mesoscales shows tomorrow afternoon.Next week has a chance but  the boundary might be the bigger deal with some convective training cells could cause some major hydro issues,where thats at who knows but right now the Euro and GFS shows NW/TN to Ky

[nrgjeff]

So far the 12Z CAMs continue to show the results of a poorly timed short-wave upstairs. The latter can be modeled well 36 hours out. Midday Sunday wave does not fire, and just pulls the LLJ away.

Late Sunday short-wave tries to fire in Ark. but the LLJ is shunted off to the east. It results in one of multiple failure modes. Sups come off the Ozark Plateau and die in the Delta (lower elevation) under what's left of the cap. Sups go instaline forced on the back CF because the lead pre-frontal trough failed. Finally too much junk precip. Never really goes, but that's the least likely failure scenario.

My initial excitement about Mid-South boundaries has faded. Looks like a total waste of a perfectly timed 250 mb jet coming out of AR/LA. Could still be enough, but doubtful during the day. Unfortunately could be at night, but I'm really not that worried. 

Note that the SPC is considering a Moderate at the update time. Everyone go with official information. I'm just being skeptical. Funny the last 3 months I've been optimistic on snow and pessimistic on severe. Well 2025 is another weird year overall.

Midwest synoptic boundaries may end up the place to be, despite less CAPE. Dynamics and kinematics look good up that way. SPC Is talkin' poss. upgrade Mid-South but I'd be looking at the Midwest. Again, go with official info. not my poor attitude!

[jaxjagman]

21 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

So far the 12Z CAMs continue to show the results of a poorly timed short-wave upstairs. The latter can be modeled well 36 hours out. Midday Sunday wave does not fire, and just pulls the LLJ away.

Late Sunday short-wave tries to fire in Ark. but the LLJ is shunted off to the east. It results in one of multiple failure modes. Sups come off the Ozark Plateau and die in the Delta (lower elevation) under what's left of the cap. Sups go instaline forced on the back CF because the lead pre-frontal trough failed. Finally too much junk precip. Never really goes, but that's the least likely failure scenario.

My initial excitement about Mid-South boundaries has faded. Looks like a total waste of a perfectly timed 250 mb jet coming out of AR/LA. Could still be enough, but doubtful during the day. Unfortunately could be at night, but I'm really not that worried. 

Note that the SPC is considering a Moderate at the update time. Everyone go with official information. I'm just being skeptical. Funny the last 3 months I've been optimistic on snow and pessimistic on severe. Well 2025 is another weird year overall.

Midwest synoptic boundaries may end up the place to be, despite less CAPE. Dynamics and kinematics look good up that way. SPC Is talkin' poss. upgrade Mid-South but I'd be looking at the Midwest. Again, go with official info. not my poor attitude!

Cutting jobs at the NWS,its really sad how bad these models will   become  than they already are.I really think hes hoping for a weather disaster and he will come out and say"This is why we need AI technology" and blame the NWS.I know we arent suppose to talk politics and i wont say no more.I cant imagine what emotions you guys as mets are going through right now,i'm sure it's  not good and healthy.But i'm really glad to have you mets posting here,its like going to school once again i learn for you guys.So thanks !!

[jaxjagman]

4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Cutting jobs at the NWS,its really sad how bad these models will   become  than they already are.I really think hes hoping for a weather disaster and he will come out and say"This is why we need AI technology" and blame the NWS.I know we arent suppose to talk politics and i wont say no more.I cant imagine what emotions you guys as mets are going through right now,i'm sure it's  not good and healthy.But i'm really glad to have you mets posting here,its like going to school once again i learn for you guys.So thanks to all of you !!

 

[nrgjeff]

Thank you @jaxjagman we can talk about it in here because it impacts forecast accuracy. It’s not really political. 

Biggest immediate concern is only one ballon a day from some Northern Plains locations vs the usual twice a day. That will hurt NWP performance.

Then all the other staffing issues are awful too. We shall improvise, adapt, overcome. And watch Heartbreak Ridge, ha!

[Matthew70]

Going to need a boat next week. 

[jaxjagman]

11 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Going to need a boat next week. 

Biggest threat still looks to be to our west,but yeah we could get some healthy rains

[nrgjeff]

Virtual Target: Hayti MO. Today isn't worth a 6-hour drive though.

Sagging synoptic boundary will be approaching. Key is the secondary boundary that should develop from the MO Bootheel east into Tenn. Cells riding it are favored. Trouble is few River crossings. Who wants to get stuck at the Mississippi River with no crossing?

Morning wave should exit the target area in time for subtle lift from the evening wave by 00Z. Late start is also suboptimal for chasing. However the midday subsidence will promote ample heating. Dewpoints should hold steady.

Near ideal upper-level jet noses in at the right time. Biggest inhibitor of a higher Outlook Category is the slow response of the LLJ. That's related to the lead wave jacking the wind fields. Great news for the storm anxious. No Moderate I figure.

That said it could be a bit windy overnight. Straight line wind 45% but no hatch to avoid the MDT. If SPC upgrades check and see if it's for straight wind. Meanwhile the Elite Eight looks like more elite hoops today!

[jaxjagman]

39 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Virtual Target: Hayti MO. Today isn't worth a 6-hour drive though.

Sagging synoptic boundary will be approaching. Key is the secondary boundary that should develop from the MO Bootheel east into Tenn. Cells riding it are favored. Trouble is few River crossings. Who wants to get stuck at the Mississippi River with no crossing?

Morning wave should exit the target area in time for subtle lift from the evening wave by 00Z. Late start is also suboptimal for chasing. However the midday subsidence will promote ample heating. Dewpoints should hold steady.

Near ideal upper-level jet noses in at the right time. Biggest inhibitor of a higher Outlook Category is the slow response of the LLJ. That's related to the lead wave jacking the wind fields. Great news for the storm anxious. No Moderate I figure.

That said it could be a bit windy overnight. Straight line wind 45% but no hatch to avoid the MDT. If SPC upgrades check and see if it's for straight wind. Meanwhile the Elite Eight looks like more elite hoops today!

Hopefully Auburn plays like they did into the 2nd half against Michigan,that first half was brutal trying to be cute with the b-ball,so many turnovers.Staying home drinking beer and watching Auburn and probably yelling at my TV and listening to my wife saying hush 

[nrgjeff]

Yeah I'd rather bark at my TV both Tennessee and Auburn, than bark at cells going linear too fast, or getting blocked at the River.

Charles Barkley had very deep thoughts about the first half and taking care of the ball. In the game of basketball, the most important thing is the basketball!

Classic Chuck. Anyway, still not MDT. Just a huge wind 45% no hatch, lol. TOR is still 10% hatched. I agree that hodographs will enlarge this evening. In some cases lines can actually break up and go super. I'm not feeling it today, but QLCS tornadoes are quite possible overnight.

[jaxjagman]

Tornado hit McEwen,damage reports coming in

[jaxjagman]

A tor  warned cell here,no tor, hail,wind and one of the best light shows ive seen in years

[Matthew70]

51 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

A tor  warned cell here,no tor, hail,wind and one of the best light shows ive seen in years

Definitely a light show.  Strange thunder was not that loud.  We had no hail or wind thankfully.  Went right near us. 

[Matthew70]

Fairview tornado last night 

From Boyd