TV Severe Weather2025-?

[John1122]

Ended up with some wind, small hail and 4.6 inches of rain from this system. 

[vortexse93]

14 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Still looks like we have a severe threat upcoming and possibly some BN temps for a few days after.Thats a big trough in East Asia going through all the way to Taiwan the next couple days,probably more indictive of the MJO into the I0/Maritime during this period.

If the JMA is anywhere right the MJO is going to move fast into the WH in a couple weeks,still looks like at this point as we get into well part of April it could be quite interesting as long as the signal stays strong,which is nothing guaranteed at this point

I have done some analysis for AMJ and I think April will continue to be active. As for May and June, it looks bleak will save that discussion for another time. 

[*Flash*]

22 hours ago, *Flash* said:

No tornado…but an ominous lowering just northeast of Russellville earlier today. Plenty of greenage with that cell as it moved through Franklin, Lawrence, and Lauderdale counties. Some secondaries in and around the Shoals were closed off due to flash flooding and tree damage.

Overall, storm mode was wayyy messier than I anticipated. I doubt the SPC risk zones verify for northern Alabama when all is said and done.

Or I guess it could have been where the hail was falling. SPC reports had big reports just west of me…

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

On 3/15/2025 at 7:43 PM, John1122 said:

Tornado Warning just west of me in Scott County. Radar indicated so far but on a similar path to one that passed near me a couple years ago. It may be very close or was to @Holston_River_Rambler

I was actually out of town for that. Just a lot of trees down in Frozen Head and some moderate flooding IMBY. 

[nrgjeff]

Wednesday looks meh. Later in the season I'd hope for a mesoscale accident, but NCAA play-in games look like a better option.

Sunday Deep South is looking more poorly oriented. Still early in the season, but I have concerns SSW could kill the first half of April. Later in the season a -AO can help get the jet stream going. This early, it's crap.

[Runman292]

I'm surprised that there was no tornado reports from the previous storms in Loudon and Anderson counties.

[vortexse93]

9 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Wednesday looks meh. Later in the season I'd hope for a mesoscale accident, but NCAA play-in games look like a better option.

Sunday Deep South is looking more poorly oriented. Still early in the season, but I have concerns SSW could kill the first half of April. Later in the season a -AO can help get the jet stream going. This early, it's crap.

Wednesday, had little hope for anyways, if things do get interesting, I have to Res in Jackson, MS that can hopefully be of some use  in the attempt to get structure at the bare min if not lightning photos.

Sunday might be one of those if you are close take the gamble anyways pending storm mode, which is what I might end up doing. If I do go out, then it will but for the sole purpose of getting structure and landscape photography nothing more across the Delta. 

[nrgjeff]

Sunday will also depend on who's still in the NCAA Tournament, lol! Has the potential to work because 500 mb is almost straight west. Don't need 850 mb textbook backed. Again it'd be a gem late season. We'll see in March. Need a juicy boundary.

[John1122]

Surprised to see a tornado watch for a large portion of Kentucky, I didn't even know thunderstorms were coming.

[nrgjeff]

SPC extended the Slight south at 20Z and posted the watch. Looks like storms crapped out. Odd, because I wasn't chasing. That was such a Jeff is chasing move. 

Sunday has become more interesting with a bigger warm sector and farther north boundaries. Now the low level winds are veered off. However, the upper level winds are almost from due west, not southwest. That's just enough turning, esp near surface boundaries with enhanced SRH. Way too early to place those, but pre-dawn rain could set the table. SPC outlook I infer is the southern and northern envelope of where said boundaries could land.

Issued Thursday valid for Sunday

[vortexse93]

Adding to what @nrgjeff had posted, while it is way to early to determine exact details for Sunday, the 18z GFS and NAM forecast soundings do show some glimmer of hope for a potential chase in the MS Delta into North AL. One concern that stands out to me is the mid-level capping inversion that is very apparent in the NAM sounding, not so much on the GFS sounding. If that cap does not erode, then it could be cause for concern for storm development during the afternoon/evening  hours. Outside of that one issue, veering wind profile, with about 700 J/kg to 1,000 J/kg of CAPE, SRH values well into the triple digits, looping hodographs and even steep lapse rates present within the atmosphere is a good sign. All that needs to be watched are boundaries, as mentioned before, and for myself at least storm mode. 

[Matthew70]

From MEG on Sunday:
"Deterministic runs of
both the GFS and ECMWF paint SBCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear upwards of 55 kts in the aforementioned
area. This great thermodynamic environment will allow strong to
severe storms to produce damaging winds, large hail, and a
possible tornado or two."
 

[jaxjagman]

That ridge building into the Bearing Sea/Aleutians by all the models by mid next week will get us into a active pattern towards the end of March for several days.I believe the focus point should be towards the Hudson/Greenland.In general when height rises into the Hudson and into the Bearing Sea this should be ridging along the 4-corners and not into the S/plains

[jaxjagman]

I dunno,we will see but by the latest models i really think the severe risk will be more further east than whats showing right now and it could also be hydro problem for someone right now just as well,but its still far out

The MJO is fixing to have the next several days  destructive interference more than likely it seems from Kelvin and Rossby waves in the upcoming days,it seemingly should go into the COD and into the WH more faster than being shown by some RMMM'S

[nrgjeff]

Sunday refuses to show a chase target, as of Friday evening. SPC is worried about the cold front, but I think we'll have a prefrontal trough. Should have outflow from early day showers. Problem is it may all be too cool. It's March not May.

I believe there could be enough turning from 850-500 mph iff boundaries would intersect properly in an unstable airmass. Otherwise it'll look like North Alabama on Saturday. What about Mississippi? Needs quality boundaries. Juuust enough turning with height is conditional on locally higher SRH. 

SPC Day 3 update mentions north Mississippi but they don't sound confident. Looks about as low energy as Kansas or Memphis basketball. Cynical basketball metaphors are a risk for a few more days. 

[vortexse93]

Model guidance suggest that storm development will be close to sunset. Will stay within the JAN area in hopes of getting some lightning or storm photography. Discrete cells look to remain few and far between out ahead of the line, this cloud be a result of some sort of boundary that the models are indicating for these discrete storms to develop off of. Other than that, majority of the storms will be associated with the cold front. Any discrete storms that do develop, will either merge within or into some sort of linear system as cold front front begins drifting southward during the late evening into the over night hours. Synoptic forcing will be weak, but there will be enough directional shear present from the sfc to the mid-levels to support tornadic cells. Given the weak synoptic forcing, the tornado threat should be low for the most part. 

[vortexse93]

13 hours ago, vortexse93 said:

Model guidance suggest that storm development will be close to sunset. Will stay within the JAN area in hopes of getting some lightning or storm photography. Discrete cells look to remain few and far between out ahead of the line, this cloud be a result of some sort of boundary that the models are indicating for these discrete storms to develop off of. Other than that, majority of the storms will be associated with the cold front. Any discrete storms that do develop, will either merge within or into some sort of linear system as cold front front begins drifting southward during the late evening into the over night hours. Synoptic forcing will be weak, but there will be enough directional shear present from the sfc to the mid-levels to support tornadic cells. Given the weak synoptic forcing, the tornado threat should be low for the most part. 

HRRR decided it will not give me sups to chase this evening. Will make an attempt to gather lightning photos and go from there. Will see how model data changes throughout the day, but if trends in the model data continues then any hopes of chasing will be doubtful. 

[jaxjagman]

SPC extended the slight risk into Mid Tn,latest RAP/ HRRR now shows DP'S getting into the lower 60's with plenty of instability,looks mostly wind/hail but i wouldnt be surprised to see a tor warned cell or two into the early evening,i'm hoping for a good light show either way

[yoda]

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 60
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   315 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Arkansas
     Southwest Kentucky
     Missouri Bootheel
     Northern Mississippi
     Western and Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon
   over eastern Arkansas and spread eastward across the watch area
   through the evening.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
   concern with these storms.  However, sufficient low level shear will
   pose some risk of a few tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Memphis TN
   to 45 miles southeast of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

 

[jaxjagman]

That big block into the Bearing Sea in a few days with no strong blocking into the Hudson Bay should give us a decent severe chance into next weekend.Today there is a trough going into the Yellow Sea with height rises into east China and the Sea of Japan.Think we should see the strongest-PNA we've seen in months upcoming.

[nrgjeff]

Excellent storm mode is WASTED on pathetic instability. That's my post. Glad I didn't chase. Back to betting and basketball.