WestTennWX Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Yes,these are all broken cell super cells which should mature the next couple hrs Starting to blossom quickly. I was watching a FB live out of NWS PAH earlier and it's the first time I've heard a met say he was worried, and worried for us. I've got a safe room stocked and ready, a bit unnerved here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Mesoscale Discussion 0184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...36... Valid 150320Z - 150515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32, 36 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells with a history of producing tornadoes will continue to pose a tornado threat (including significant tornadoes) for the next couple of hours as they move into northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri. DISCUSSION...Two long-lived supercells moving across north-central AR and south-central MO have had a history of producing tornadoes per dual-pol data and spotter reports. Based on rotational velocity estimates and the magnitude of the convective environment (characterized by STP values up to 10), one or more of these tornadoes were likely significant (EF-2+). These cells will continue to reside in this exceptionally rare STP environment for the next 1-2 hours as they move into far northeast AR and southeast MO. Consequently, the potential for additional long-track and significant (possibly intense) tornadoes will continue across this region. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 10 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Oh its such a mesmerizing road,but there is so many few exits,its really dangerous in severe weather,i really love going through there any other time I would not dare chase south of I-20 towards that direction on a slight risk or enhanced risk day. You think I am going to chase on a moderate or high risk day, that is crazy lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Looking at the model guidance and seeing the 12z HRRR, will stay local and if something comes my way I will attempt to chase it then. I would think about heading east this morning, but will have to fight the QLCS on my way back and not worth the risk, especially on a day like today where storms will spins. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, vortexse93 said: Safe bet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: PDS now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 High Risk and PDS boxes are warranted. Ugly afternoon on tap. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 15 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: PDS now Starting to recycle maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Starting to recycle maybe I have sups 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Man, you can really see that warm front on reflectivity! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 14 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Man, you can really see that warm front on reflectivity! Yeah to bad its not at night,would be a awesome light show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 Tornado headed towards Morgan City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 How are the hodographs looking? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 these cell are booking it in MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 40 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Man, you can really see that warm front on reflectivity! https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/meso_band.php?sat=G16&lat=34N&lon=90W&band=FED13&length=30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I was on the edge of the 30 percent but it's rained way more than predicted this morning. Supposed to be a quarter to half inch and I've gotten 2 inches with probably another hour or hour and a half to go. Not sure how well our area clears out and destabilizes unless the clear and warming is quick behind the warm front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I saw this interesting thread pertaining to the Chattanooga area this evening and boundary in place.https://bsky.app/profile/chattwjonathan.bsky.social/post/3lkgjvldr5s2g 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Tornado Watch coming shortly for Middle Tennessee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, yoda said: Tornado Watch coming shortly for Middle Tennessee Mesoscale Discussion 0203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151730Z - 151830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon. Damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes will be the main concerns. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is gradually progressing toward Middle TN from the west as semi-discrete storms attempt to approach from northeast MS. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints continue to advect northward, supporting gradual destabilization. MLCAPE may exceed 500 J/kg, and when considering the strong low-level shear in place (e.g. large, clockwise-curved hodographs with 500+ m2/s2 effective SRH per recent HTX and OHX VADs), QLCS circulations may develop and support a tornado threat. Any preceding supercells that can advance into middle TN in the aforementioned shear environment will have the best chance at producing tornadoes. Furthermore, severe wind gusts may also accompany the approaching QLCS. As such, a Tornado Watch will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 80/60 tor, 90/70 wind URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 47 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward across middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening. Widespread damaging winds up to 60-75 mph are expected along with several tornadoes as the environment becomes increasingly favorable for severe thunderstorms. A couple strong to intense tornadoes also appear posssible with any embedded supercells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east northeast of Nashville TN to 85 miles south southwest of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Tornado Warning just west of me in Scott County. Radar indicated so far but on a similar path to one that passed near me a couple years ago. It may be very close or was to @Holston_River_Rambler 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Confirmed tornado per NWS between Sweetwater and Oak Ridge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 No tornado…but an ominous lowering just northeast of Russellville earlier today. Plenty of greenage with that cell as it moved through Franklin, Lawrence, and Lauderdale counties. Some secondaries in and around the Shoals were closed off due to flash flooding and tree damage. Overall, storm mode was wayyy messier than I anticipated. I doubt the SPC risk zones verify for northern Alabama when all is said and done. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 27 minutes ago, John1122 said: Confirmed tornado per NWS between Sweetwater and Oak Ridge. That one was so prominent on Radar that you pretty well knew it was one . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 That tornado barely missed my house in Oak Ridge. Me and my wife are ok. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 1 hour ago, John1122 said: Confirmed tornado per NWS between Sweetwater and Oak Ridge. Yep. Went right over my house NE of Kingston and must have touched down just after it passed me as there was a debris signature about a half-mile north of me. Too close for comfort! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 59 minutes ago, Runman292 said: That tornado barely missed my house in Oak Ridge. Me and my wife are ok. Good to hear!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 Still looks like we have a severe threat upcoming and possibly some BN temps for a few days after.Thats a big trough in East Asia going through all the way to Taiwan the next couple days,probably more indictive of the MJO into the I0/Maritime during this period. If the JMA is anywhere right the MJO is going to move fast into the WH in a couple weeks,still looks like at this point as we get into well part of April it could be quite interesting as long as the signal stays strong,which is nothing guaranteed at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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