vortexse93 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 For me personally, will need to see how Friday plays out before making any decision. While I would typically have something a little more concrete, I do not this time around as CAMs are struggling one way or another. Also, Friday night into Saturday morning will dictate what will transpire across MS and AL as whole. As it stands right now, will prep as if I were to chase with the the understanding that it will most likely be a no go for me at this time. The last thing I wan to do is force myself to chase something that the risk is not worth the reward and put myself in unnecessary harm. Will continue to monitor model guidance and trends at this time before making a final decision. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 I'll tell ya this, if there are anything less than several F4 mile wide twisters in Alabama or Mississippi on Saturday, the general public will consider this a bust the way the weather universe has hyped this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 51 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I'll tell ya this, if there are anything less than several F4 mile wide twisters in Alabama or Mississippi on Saturday, the general public will consider this a bust the way the weather universe has hyped this up. I believe it’s warranted. This system has a very high ceiling but also has potential bust. All the sources I’ve seen have said just that. Public will always have it’s typical can’t make happy no matter what. Many well educated & respected meteorologist are concerned. When Spann, Fred Gossage, and Andy say pay attention then it’s serious. They are not like Timmer who hypes every storm. Earlier I listened to the Nashville wx briefing. She was clear on its “boom” or “bust”. One thing really stood out to me what she said. “Being in an enhanced risk 3 days out is eye opening”. She made it clear that if the cap breaks tomorrow night then it’s going to be a rough 24 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Latest data indicates quite a day around here on Saturday. Andy and David are right about the model biases, but even considering that, the 12z Thursday suite looked pretty ragged. 00z Friday is a different story. Thunderstorms continue or develop predawn Saturday. They may start rotating right then. However it's really sloppy. Then by midday - with no diurnal pause - everything just starts rotating. We'll see. It's happened before and it'll happen again in the South. Looks hideous for chasing. Looks even worse for the general public. Saturday is lookin' like college basketball for me. Sky stayed clear for the total lunar eclipse. 2025 is starting like 2024. Punting storms and enjoying astronomical events and the night sky. Lunar eclipses are underrated. It's not solar spectacular - but it's beautiful! and Peaceful. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 MRX is late in putting out their AFD this morning. Must be a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 The 06z HRRR is one of the most extreme solutions I've seen from a high res model, both for today and Saturday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 MRX AFD: 2. Severe Weather On Saturday morning, remnant convection from today and tonight is forecast to move into western portions of the area with some cells also possibly arriving from Alabama. At this time, the high-res model guidance suggests instability to be largely elevated, meaning hail is the main threat during this time. By mid-day, the upper- level flow becomes more split with the aforementioned secondary low expected to track northeastward. Upper-level divergence will become even more impressive with backing of surface winds and increasing 850mb flow into the afternoon. Based on the latest CAM guidance, there are still questions as to how convection will evolve, especially during the afternoon hours, which will affect the evolution of everything overnight. An impressively sheared environment is expected across the entire area with effective shear in excess of 60 kts and low-level SRH anywhere from 300 to 500 m2/s2. 0-1km shear will likely be in excess of 40 kts with very curved hodographs. For anything that develops in the afternoon, all severe weather hazards are expected within any discrete supercells. Some solutions like the 00Z HRRR show much less organization and instability during this time while others show discrete supercells or even limited activity. By the evening hours, a QLCS is expected to be ongoing to our west ahead of the associated cold front. Assuming there is time for recovery from the afternoon, this QLCS would likely sweep through the entire area during the overnight hours. Within any outcome, the greatest chances for airmass recovery and sufficient instability continues to be along the Cumberland Plateau and into southeast Tennessee. If there is sufficient low- level instability, STP values in excess of 1 are indicated and would support strong tornadoes. With very impressive 850mb flow of over 70 kts, widespread damaging winds are likely. The tornado threat within this line becomes less confident further north and east because of less potential SBCAPE. Most solutions suggest instability to be generally less than 500 J/kg but within the presence of very strong shear. The hail threat during this time would likely be more limited because of the linear storm and focused during the potential afternoon supercells. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 6 hours ago, andyhb said: The 06z HRRR is one of the most extreme solutions I've seen from a high res model, both for today and Saturday. Andy would you mind posting that if you’re able? I apologize, I don’t know where to go to see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Hopefully it busts like May 20, 2019. That HRRR isn't gonna be good for anybody. Image below. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 Seemingly right now in Mid Tn models have been showning nothing but invergence into parts of Mid TN.But some of the latest Mesoscales are showing a stronger LLJ, which should aide into being a cap buster for possibly early morning severe storms 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 Tomorrow there is a trough moving through into East China with a ridge off of Japan, so we should possibly see a trough into the plains and at least a severe threat upcoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 39 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Seemingly right now in Mid Tn models have been showning nothing but invergence into parts of Mid TN.But some of the latest Mesoscales are showing a stronger LLJ, which should aide into being a cap buster for possibly early morning severe storms Yeah, the threat all rides on cap status. These 'boom or bust' nocturnal threats...not my favorite at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 D2 high risk, only the third ever issued in the modern era of SPC. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 On 3/12/2025 at 6:43 PM, vortexse93 said: I am currently keeping my eyes out for Friday into Saturday. By glancing at the models over the last few days, I am personally not liking the timing nor the placement of this setup. This round I may end up sitting this one out. For me personally, it will be a stretch to make near Northeast AR/MO on Friday. For Saturday, the threat will be to my east and chasing east of I-55 is nearly impossible. While there are some spots that are decent to chase in, I am not much on fighting trees and hills. Plus, have some concerns in how Saturday morning may play out with the morning storms ahead of the main show. Have seen time after time when morning storms tend to ruin events. Not saying that will happen, it is something to keep in the back of the mind when making these decisions. Will continue to watch and see what the higher res models are showing by this time tomorrow. If the NAM is anywhere right,you might be chasing in your back yard,stay safe bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: If the NAM is anywhere right,you might be chasing in your back yard,stay safe bro 18Z HRRR is trying to sign my death certificate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 No chase for me tonight as storm development will after sunset. This will likely be my last full breakdown discussions before tomorrow, any updates from will likely be brief or will be quoting SPC MDs for much of the day. Tomorrow has me very concern for long-track and violent tornadoes across much of Central MS as model guidance has severely backed off on any morning time convection for the region. My second concern is the possible eastward progression of a dryline ahead of the cold front. Dry lines are not common for this region and could be the reason why models have supercell heavy the over the last couple of days. Drylines are excellent lifting sources for storm development and are more common out in Tornado Alley. Timing of these storms can be as early as mid-day tomorrow and will most likely remain discrete and supercell storms. These discrete storms will not have the biggest tornado threat associated with them, but will also have the potential to produce long track and violent tornadoes tomorrow. Since I am new to this forum, I do not use that language very lightly or very often. Tomorrow has the day to be a very eventful day. For chasing, had thoughts to chase, however, having to fight any potential supercells on the way back or QLCS storms in this type of environment is not warrant for me. However, as @jaxjagmanmentioned, if things line up properly, the storms will come to me. For this reason, I will remain local for tomorrow's severe weather threat. I have some local spots that will be great for viewing if the opportunity presents itself. Tomorrow is not a day for inexperience chasers to be chasing in Dixie Alley. The setup were more into the Delta, I would most be considering a chase, but that is not the case. For those that go chasing, be extremely careful and mindful of the weather conditions and the road networks around MS/AL. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 PDS TOR Watch issued URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 36 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Southern Illinois Far Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 730 PM until 300 AM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the watch area over the next several hours. Environmental conditions are very favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and strong (EF2+) tornadoes. If storms can remain discrete, potential exists for a few long-track tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 25 miles southwest of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, vortexse93 said: No chase for me tonight as storm development will after sunset. This will likely be my last full breakdown discussions before tomorrow, any updates from will likely be brief or will be quoting SPC MDs for much of the day. Tomorrow has me very concern for long-track and violent tornadoes across much of Central MS as model guidance has severely backed off on any morning time convection for the region. My second concern is the possible eastward progression of a dryline ahead of the cold front. Dry lines are not common for this region and could be the reason why models have supercell heavy the over the last couple of days. Drylines are excellent lifting sources for storm development and are more common out in Tornado Alley. Timing of these storms can be as early as mid-day tomorrow and will most likely remain discrete and supercell storms. These discrete storms will not have the biggest tornado threat associated with them, but will also have the potential to produce long track and violent tornadoes tomorrow. Since I am new to this forum, I do not use that language very lightly or very often. Tomorrow has the day to be a very eventful day. For chasing, had thoughts to chase, however, having to fight any potential supercells on the way back or QLCS storms in this type of environment is not warrant for me. However, as @jaxjagmanmentioned, if things line up properly, the storms will come to me. For this reason, I will remain local for tomorrow's severe weather threat. I have some local spots that will be great for viewing if the opportunity presents itself. Tomorrow is not a day for inexperience chasers to be chasing in Dixie Alley. The setup were more into the Delta, I would most be considering a chase, but that is not the case. For those that go chasing, be extremely careful and mindful of the weather conditions and the road networks around MS/AL. Yeah dont go down the Natchez to get to Jackson..lol..That could be the road of no return during severe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 Cranking up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Cranking up 00z HRRR is really concerning me. I haven't see the HRRR this consistent. Usually there is some difference or some sort of back and forth. Really concerning and FV3 is not showing much difference. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 51 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Yeah dont go down the Natchez to get to Jackson..lol..That could be the road of no return during severe It might be a road of this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 Franklin Co is getting hit hard in MO,already had one tor and another is fixing to hit,2.75"hail marker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 16 minutes ago, vortexse93 said: It might be a road of this Oh its such a mesmerizing road,but there is so many few exits,its really dangerous in severe weather,i really love going through there any other time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Ominous line to our west here in Union City. Dew points are starting to climb, 57 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 4 minutes ago, WestTennWX said: Ominous line to our west here in Union City. Dew points are starting to climb, 57 now. Yes,these are all broken cell super cells which should mature the next couple hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 Tor emergency in MO,Carter CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 It’s really unbelievable what’s happening with this outbreak. I hope the cams are wrong about multiple waves of supercells tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Tor emergency in MO,Carter CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: It’s really unbelievable what’s happening with this outbreak. I hope the cams are wrong about multiple waves of supercells tomorrow. Yeah and the sad parts its just starting,wait until tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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