TV Severe Weather2025-?

[jaxjagman]

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Warm and dry, spring-like conditions will be in place Tuesday and
Wednesday as dry high pressure remains in control with an upper
level ridge extending west to east across the southern states.
Temperatures will run around 15 degrees above normal with daytime
highs in the 70s and overnight lows mostly in the 40s and 50s.
South to southwest winds will pick up a little Tuesday into
Wednesday, and this could boost temps even warmer than our
forecast values, perhaps around 80 in some spots.

By Wednesday afternoon, a compact shortwave will bring stormy wx to
the ArkLaTex spreading to the Mid South. It appears the system
will weaken by the time it reaches us Wednesday night into
Thursday. There will be scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder, but we do not expect any severe wx and average rainfall
amounts will be less than one quarter inch for locations that
receive rain. Otherwise, the warm pattern will continue late this
week with Friday temps well into the 70s to around 80.

Unfortunately, we are seeing a much stronger system with potential
for widespread stormy wx this weekend. A large and deep low pressure
system with a trailing cold front will form over the Plains
Friday, then move eastward Saturday and Saturday night. The main
surface low is expected to track well to our north, up into the
Great Lakes, but this expansive system could bring severe wx all
the way from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast. As one would expect in
this forecast timeframe, there are many uncertainties including
the exact strength and track of the system, return moisture
quality, surface instability, and timing of the cold front. What
we can say with some confidence for Middle Tennessee is the
weekend looks quite breezy with showers and storms and heavy
downpours at times. Rain probabilities are around 80 percent for
Saturday with an 80 percent chance for more than 1 inch of rain.
Some models are suggesting higher totals well over 2 inches for
the weekend! The severe storm potential (damaging winds, hail,
tornadoes) will come into better focus as we go through the week,
so stay tuned.

[jaxjagman]

NSSL

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

NSSL

Ugh.  Tornadoes & wind damage I can do wo. 

[Matthew70]

When Andy & Fred post that they are concerned about this upcoming storm.  It definitely makes me pause. They don’t hype like Reed. 

[vortexse93]

March 14th to March 15th has everyone on stand by and rightfully so. While there is good model agreement at this time, there are some slight differences between them. Personally, I am liking the track and speed at which the EURO model has for this system. With a -NAO, troughs should be digging a little further south and should have be moving a little slower, which the EURO does show. The NAO is forecasted to remain negative well past the 15th of March, so the faster moving solution the GFS is showing, I am less confident in at this time. 

With such a big warm sector forecasted for the 14th-15th, this reminds of a similar setup back on March 31st, 2023 where there were two distinct areas for severe weather, one in AR/TN/MS and the other in the Midwest that was associated with the main sfc Low if I do recall correctly.  In NO WAY, I am saying this will be a repeat of that event. I can not stress that enough! What I am saying that the pattern is there to see two different areas being the gun for severe weather. However those details can not be fine tune at this time and the size of the warm sector and the SPC Day 6 Outlook reflects that as well. 

The finer details for March 14th to March 15th will determine my storm chase decision but for now it is on my radar for the time being. 

[jaxjagman]

26 minutes ago, vortexse93 said:

March 14th to March 15th has everyone on stand by and rightfully so. While there is good model agreement at this time, there are some slight differences between them. Personally, I am liking the track and speed at which the EURO model has for this system. With a -NAO, troughs should be digging a little further south and should have be moving a little slower, which the EURO does show. The NAO is forecasted to remain negative well past the 15th of March, so the faster moving solution the GFS is showing, I am less confident in at this time. 

With such a big warm sector forecasted for the 14th-15th, this reminds of a similar setup back on March 31st, 2023 where there were two distinct areas for severe weather, one in AR/TN/MS and the other in the Midwest that was associated with the main sfc Low if I do recall correctly.  In NO WAY, I am saying this will be a repeat of that event. I can not stress that enough! What I am saying that the pattern is there to see two different areas being the gun for severe weather. However those details can not be fine tune at this time and the size of the warm sector and the SPC Day 6 Outlook reflects that as well. 

The finer details for March 14th to March 15th will determine my storm chase decision but for now it is on my radar for the time being. 

Yes,even the GFS shows storm mode wont get cranking until after the inversion breaks down around give or take sunset Friday,Thats still days away so much can change between now and then like you mentioned

[*Flash*]

7 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Hoping the weekend storm system is just a rain maker.  When Fred & Andy are concerned.  That’s an eye opener.  Yes much will change in details but this system could be large in the areas it affects. 

Fred and Andy? What posts on here are you referring to? 

[jaxjagman]

21 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Fred and Andy? What posts on here are you referring to? 

He might ne talking about Timmer

https://x.com/i/status/1898784642007707656

[jaxjagman]

15 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

He might ne talking about Timmer

https://x.com/i/status/1898784642007707656

Hes not right though hes going by the soundings,not the maps,there is an iversion into the OV

[jaxjagman]

But i dont see no reason to hype a storm 5-6 days out on social media,it could still change especially,which he is using the GFS

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Fred and Andy? What posts on here are you referring to? 

Over on talkweather.  Andy left a reply over on Tennesseewx also.  
 

 

[*Flash*]

20 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Over on talkweather.  Andy left a reply over on Tennesseewx also.  
 

 

I'll have to check those forums out. Since you're cross-posting, I advise you just share the visuals directly as a courtesy. If you throw out names casually, not everyone will know who you're talking about. 

[vortexse93]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

But i dont see no reason to hype a storm 5-6 days out on social media,it could still change especially,which he is using the GFS

I totally agree with this 100%. This also why I tend to be down to earth and not get so into hype and excitement. 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, vortexse93 said:

I totally agree with this 100%. This also why I tend to be down to earth and not get so into hype and excitement. 

Still think you run with the ensembles right now,think this is his time frame hes using,i know you could get severe with DP'S in the 50's but come on now,but you still shouldnt make these vids on social media,i'm fine with a couple days out

[jaxjagman]

Sorry.cut the time stamp out

[vortexse93]

27 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Sorry.cut the time stamp out

I noticed a lot of chasers being super aggressive with their forecast and always hyping things up which is why I don’t listen to a lot of it. Just because there is severe weather potential does mean it equals emergency tornado outbreak. 

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

I'll have to check those forums out. Since you're cross posting, I advise you just share the visuals directly, at least in the spirit of courtesy. 

I would but not sure if allowed to cross posting.  Sorry for the inconvenience. 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Still think you run with the ensembles right now,think this is his time frame hes using,i know you could get severe with DP'S in the 50's but come on now,but you still shouldnt make these vids on social media,i'm fine with a couple days out

Agree.  I really don’t pay attention to Timmer. He pumps every storm up I feel like. 

[jaxjagman]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

   Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Thu - Southeast...

   A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast on Thursday.
   Stronger deep-layer flow will mainly be focused over the Gulf.
   However, cooler temperatures aloft will support weak instability and
   a strong storm or two may occur over portions of AL/GA and the FL
   Panhandle. Overall severe potential appears limited.

   ...Day 5/Fri - ArkLaTex to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity...

   A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday
   afternoon into the overnight hours. An intense upper cyclone will
   deepen as it ejects northeast from the central/southern Plains to
   the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. A 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak
   will move across OK into the Ozark Plateau during the late afternoon
   and evening, before lifting north across the Mid-MS Valley
   overnight. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface low will move
   across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, with a cold front
   surging east across the region from late afternoon into Saturday
   morning. 

   Deeper Gulf moisture will be confined to the I-20 corridor Friday
   morning. However, intense low-level flow will quickly transport
   moisture northward through the mid-MS Valley. Surface dewpoints
   greater than 60 F will likely remain south of the MO Bootheel
   vicinity, with a broader area of more modest moisture as far north
   as northeast IA/southwest WI and northern IL. While moisture will be
   less favorable with northward extent, strong large-scale ascent,
   intense deep-layer flow and a surging cold front will likely be
   sufficient for severe convection even amid weak instability. Further
   south from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower MS Valley, better
   quality moisture is expected to overlap intense shear. Overall, this
   pattern will support all severe hazards, with a potential mixed mode
   evolution (QLCS and supercells). 

   The north and east extent of severe potential remains a bit
   uncertain either due to moisture concerns and/or spread among
   various guidance in timing and position of key features. Severe
   probabilities will likely be refined over the coming days as these
   features become better resolved. 

   ...Day 6/Sat - Southeast...

   The Upper Midwest cyclone will eject northeast into Ontario on
   Saturday. Meanwhile the base of the larger-scale upper trough over
   the Plains ejects east toward the Lower MS Valley and Southeast.
   This will maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the
   region, with an intense low-level jet expected to develop by late
   afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the Deep South.
   Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period from the Lower OH
   Valley toward northern MS/LA adds some uncertainty regarding how the
   airmass will destabilize (especially with northward extent).
   However, it appears likely that a very favorable corridor of rich
   boundary layer moisture will overlap strong shear from
   central/southern MS into northern AL ahead of a cold front expected
   to surge across the area during the evening. This overall pattern
   appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS. 

   ...Day 7/Sun - Eastern states...

   The upper trough over the central U.S. will lift northeast over the
   eastern states on Sunday. Some severe potential is possible given
   strong deep-layer flow atop a moist boundary layer ahead of the
   eastward-advancing cold front. However, destabilization may be
   limited by widespread training precipitation.

   ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025

[nrgjeff]

I'm putting in an order for an outflow boundary in North Alabama. Sure as hell is not a forecast 6 days out!

Reality is we get what we get and we don't pitch a fit. Could still be a Deep South MCS nixes Saturday. Though Friday looks robust into the Mid-South, Saturday is my main interest. 

Looks like two pieces of energy. Friday lobe ejects from the Mid-South to the Midwest. Another jet streak and lobe of energy is forecast into the Deep South on Saturday. Outflow placement is highly dependent on Friday - which is still Day 5. 

Honestly I would have waited on 30% for Saturday. Friday is legit 30% though. I know parameters are nuts, but the other solution is MCS rainout. Upside of course is less am rain and reload.

[Runman292]

[Matthew70]

21 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

Interesting.  American models are now saying threat is much lower.  Will Euro models join the American models in that camp.  Not sure why wx offices including SPC are in such a hurry to post graphs like this.  If it was a winter storm they would wait till the last min. 

[Runman292]

Excerpt from the MRX AFD in regards to severe weather on Saturday.

Severe Weather:

The SPC has already included most of the region within a 15% risk area for severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon through the overnight hours with a 30% risk area delineated to our south and west. There are several factors influencing the severe weather risk.We will be warm sectored across the region, but the surface low will be far to our north into Ontario. As a vort maxima rotates through the upper-level trough axis, a secondary surface low feature is expected to develop across the Mid-South and move northeast into the Central or Southern Appalachians. This will enhance low-level and effective bulk shear in the vicinity of this surface low feature, and this is visualized in model sounding data showing long hodographs with strong curvature near the surface low feature. The wind fields are expected to be very strong across the region, but the limiting factor to higher severe weather probabilities at this time is questions about instability. Depending on the exact upper-level trough amplification and track of the secondary surface low, instability could vary significantly. If the surface low takes a slightly westward track, we will be in a favorable thermodynamic for supercell convection on Saturday afternoon that grows into a QLCS with wind damage and tornado potential Saturday night. If this surface low features tracks more eastward, we will likely see more of a flash flooding risk with the primary severe hazards remaining to our south and east. NWP guidance (GFS,ECMWF, ensembles) continue to indicate near 1000 J/Kg of MLCAPE and EBShear above 50 kt which would support an all-hazards severe weather event. ECMWF EFI is also near 0.9 with a SOT of 1 across the region which presents at least a weak to moderate signal for significant CAPE/Shear combination. Wind damage would be the primary risk, but tornadoes, flash flooding, and large hail would also be risks to monitor - especially with any supercells. This severe weather forecast will be important to monitor over the next several days. 

[ladyjmayo]

3 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

  If it was a winter storm they would wait till the last min. 

So true. And then give an ambiguous statement about precip totals. 

[Runman292]

As someone who is a novice to severe weather models, which ones do I need to look at?

[Matthew70]

Hopefully my daughter soccer showcase gets canceled or moved from Jackson MS to AL (not that it’s any better) but MS is a magnet for tornadoes. HARD PASS! 

[nrgjeff]

Saturday the South is going to get its own short-wave. Vort lobe should eject from the Plains trough. If trends hold we have less morning rain forecast. First short-wave is long gone over the Great Lakes. Two in a row is usually heavy rain, but not with this separation by almost a day.

Instead we may have a couple outflow boundaries cooking all morning. Seems early in the season, but that's what might happen. Then by Saturday afternoon.. I will be very interested in any intersection of outflow boundary and pre-frontal trough. Such surface details can't be discerned 5 days out, but the background parameter space will be robust. 

Outlook for Saturday

[PowellVolz]

Guys…… we better hope that little short wave trough moving across the south on Wednesday clears out the GOM or we will have a problem  

[PowellVolz]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Saturday the South is going to get its own short-wave. Vort lobe should eject from the Plains trough. If trends hold we have less morning rain forecast. First short-wave is long gone over the Great Lakes. Two in a row is usually heavy rain, but not with this separation by almost a day.

Instead we may have a couple outflow boundaries cooking all morning. Seems early in the season, but that's what might happen. Then by Saturday afternoon.. I will be very interested in any intersection of outflow boundary and pre-frontal trough. Such surface details can't be discerned 5 days out, but the background parameter space will be robust. 

Outlook for Saturday

Mods are showing a secondary surface low pressure developing around the Arkletex region and tracking NW between Nashville and Jackson. I’m not gonna say what this setup reminds me of but i think it’s pretty dang close. 

[nrgjeff]

If the 12Z Tuesday forecast holds. Saturday is going to be a day. CSU model is probably keying in on outflow in Bama. Plus that surface low. Mass response (LLJ other levels) has trended up on Saturday due to the more obvious 2nd wave at the upper levels. Also the reason for the surface low. It's all connected.