jaxjagman Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 38 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Could be right,climo alot of Tn is around mid March,but in occasion this time of year you can still get one.I know we did get a tornado in the first of March of 2017,but Vortex is in Ms., its climo for them Just to clarify myself,i do agree with you in Tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 7 hours ago, Save the itchy algae! said: My senses tell me we aren’t in the right area for this one. . Well this line most likely will be producing straight line winds & spin up tornadoes. That LLJ is screaming at 9pm the model shows 55 knot winds/ 62 mph at surface. Thats going to leave a mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 13 years ago today...filmed from Brentwood on my last dumbphone. At the time, I had no idea this cell was dropping baseball sized hail (in southern Davidson) and putting down a trail of property damage. Terrible destruction in Kentucky and southern Indiana was occurring as well. I believe the greater kinematics were over those regions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 1 hour ago, *Flash* said: 13 years ago today...filmed from Brentwood on my last dumbphone. At the time, I had no idea this cell was dropping baseball sized hail (in southern Davidson) and putting down a trail of property damage. Terrible destruction in Kentucky and southern Indiana was occurring as well. I believe the greater kinematics were over those regions. You must have been close to my house,what part of Brentwood was this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 On 2/28/2025 at 1:28 PM, jaxjagman said: Still think the next chance of severe should come into wk 2 of March.Euro is showing a trough into East China /Yellow Sea with a ridge over Japan.IMO this could be a trough in the plains with a ridge in the east.Still should be around the 11-12th We'll see if anything mischievous happens happens during this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 Think we are fixing to get into a real active pattern as we get into Mid March,the Euro mean has been showing this the last couple days the MJO should stall out as its in Africa/Western IO for a few days basically from a ERW,it should eject into the IO days after,you should be seeing these more amplified troughs progress into East Asia like the Euro is showing as the MJO chugs along towards the Maritime.JMHO and not a forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 This is the first look at any of the higher resolution models and kinda of impressed that the HRW-FV3 not being supercell heavy as it usually is. It also follows the trends of the EURO, GFS and NAM where the best instability will be at for Tuesday. If supercells were to develop, it would not shock me to see them in Louisiana into southern Mississippi. For rest of Central Mississippi, still expecting damaging winds to be the main concern with potential for embedded tornadoes in the line. However, it will be solely dependent on if instability will be present across Central Mississippi for storms to be tornadic. There is plenty of forcing present, but you still need fuel. Chasing to looks to be a no go at this time and I think I will wait for the next system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 44 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Think we are fixing to get into a real active pattern as we get into Mid March,the Euro mean has been showing this the last couple days the MJO should stall out as its in Africa/Western IO for a few days basically from a ERW,it should eject into the IO days after,you should be seeing these more amplified troughs progress into East Asia like the Euro is showing as the MJO chugs along towards the Maritime.JMHO and not a forecast This is some good news for me at least. Tuesday is still looking like a poor chase day for me and will look ahead once Tuesday is over with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Monday at 03:09 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:09 AM Like to see what the JMA shows the next few days,These ERW'S are much slower than Kelvin,i think the Euro mean this afternoon is right to a certain extent but ,i really believe the MJO signal should stay into the IO past mid March and longer,really think its gonna be a active pattern we start to see,like Jeff said in the spring thread,buckle up !! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted Tuesday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:04 PM As a storm chaser, this is a no go situation for me down here in Jackson. Model guidance has continued to show instability struggling to advect north of I-20. Model guidance showing southwestern MS into southern Louisiana as the best environment for tornadic storms given that synoptic forcing and favorable directional shear will be in place (this includes the best potential for supercell). In Southwest MS, it is heavily forested so chasing down that way is nearly impossible and very challenging also. If the setup was for the Delta, would make a more of an attempt, but that is not the case today. The question of the day is: Will storms out run the environment? With the strong low level jet forecasted to be 70 to 80 kts and bulk shear values around 60 to 80 kts, this could very well be in the cards. With this being a possibility, it’s not worth chasing either. For me, pending timing and where the breaks in the line ends up occurring, may head out to the Reservoir to get some pictures and lightning photography. The southern part of the Reservoir will give me the most open view towards the north looking over the water. While I don’t think the greatest tornado threat will be to my north (reasons stated above) I think it will be a good opportunity to at least test my equipment for the season at the very least. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM I'm a little surprised to not see a high wind warning from MRX for the valley tonight. We appear to be surrounded by them on all sides now. My point forecast mentions gusts to 55 mph, which I believe is well within warning criteria. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 09:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:37 PM The wind is intense here. It's been raining down tree limbs all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted Tuesday at 10:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:49 PM Last time I looked, the wind gust in Jackson MS was 44 mph at one time and that was before the arrival of the line around noon today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:03 PM I'm sustained S at 25 with a 50mph gust in the 5 o'clock hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 01:42 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:42 AM I'm up to house shaking status on the wind front now. My peak gust has been 61mph. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Wednesday at 03:16 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:16 AM This is the second time we have had wind that is definitely eye opening in the last month here. Neighbor lost 2 large trees last time. We have heard some loud thumps behind us in the woods. I’d expect there to be some trees down around here tomorrow when daylight breaks. Stay safe everyone! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 04:13 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:13 AM I'm honestly not sure if my roof is going to make it. My back porch roof is probably going to be needing replaced for sure. It calmed down some between 8 and 10 but it's ramped back up to full blast now. An 80 foot pine is down in my lower yard already. I'm most stunned my power is on. I guess the last big wind event may have cleaned out all the loose trees. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Wednesday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:13 PM Sorry y'all I brought the synoptic wind from Kansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Wednesday at 06:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:53 PM 14 hours ago, John1122 said: I'm honestly not sure if my roof is going to make it. My back porch roof is probably going to be needing replaced for sure. It calmed down some between 8 and 10 but it's ramped back up to full blast now. An 80 foot pine is down in my lower yard already. I'm most stunned my power is on. I guess the last big wind event may have cleaned out all the loose trees. How did everything turn out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:55 PM Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: How did everything turn out? My back porch roof lifted off enough to need replacing and there's half a dozen trees down. I usually don't get winds as bad as other areas but when they are from the due south there's a gap in the mountain that it really roars through. Last night they were in the perfect direction for that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Wednesday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:56 PM Sorry man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 07:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:04 PM 7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sorry man. Thank you, it could've been worse. There were a few gusts that literally vibrated my floor/walls. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted Thursday at 01:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:40 AM I have not looked into the details of the overall weather pattern going into the second half of March, but the current CFS does have my hopes up at the moment for a potential chase. Will have a more detail discussion/breakdown later on this weekend for this time frame. For now, will continue to watch model guidance and trends rest of this week. Until then, y'all have a good rest of the week! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 04:32 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:32 PM Possibly a more wide spread threat towards and into next weekemd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Friday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:53 PM Time period from about March 15 looks active. Some models have a classic Southern slam. Others bring it out in two pieces with slow moving heavy rain. 10 days out there is little else to discuss yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:40 PM 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Time period from about March 15 looks active. Some models have a classic Southern slam. Others bring it out in two pieces with slow moving heavy rain. 10 days out there is little else to discuss yet. I agree,still should potentially be looking at a active period upcoming.MJO is fixing to have destructive interference with the signal into the the IO/Maritime quite a few RMMM's take it into the COD just past Mid March , but seemingly right now could eject fast into the WH,least both the CFS and Euro are showing this which would be as we get into the later part of April quite interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Row row row your boat. Fly a kite of the boat. I don’t remember so many wind events in a row. Good grief. Seems that map looks familiar from not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago Euro has been the last couple runs trending to more like the last system,There is some vast differences right now especially in the Atlantic and Pac but even that could change this far out,just a observation anways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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