TV Severe Weather2025-?

[jaxjagman]

38 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Could be right,climo  alot of Tn is around mid March,but in occasion this time of year you can still get one.I know we did get a tornado in the first of March of 2017,but Vortex is in Ms., its climo for them

Just to clarify myself,i do agree with you in Tn

[Matthew70]

7 hours ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

My senses tell me we aren’t in the right area for this one.


.

Well this line most likely will be producing straight line winds & spin up tornadoes.  That LLJ is screaming at 9pm the model shows 55 knot winds/ 62 mph at surface.  Thats going to leave a mark. 

[*Flash*]

13 years ago today...filmed from Brentwood on my last dumbphone. At the time, I had no idea this cell was dropping baseball sized hail (in southern Davidson) and putting down a trail of property damage. Terrible destruction in Kentucky and southern Indiana was occurring as well. I believe the greater kinematics were over those regions.

 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

13 years ago today...filmed from Brentwood on my last dumbphone. At the time, I had no idea this cell was dropping baseball sized hail (in southern Davidson) and putting down a trail of property damage. Terrible destruction in Kentucky and southern Indiana was occurring as well. I believe the greater kinematics were over those regions.

 

You must have been close to my house,what part of Brentwood was this?

[jaxjagman]

On 2/28/2025 at 1:28 PM, jaxjagman said:

Still think the next chance of severe should come into wk 2 of March.Euro is showing a trough into East China /Yellow Sea with a ridge over Japan.IMO this could be a trough in the plains with a ridge in the east.Still should be around the 11-12th

We'll see if anything mischievous happens happens during this time

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

Think we are fixing to get into a real active pattern as we get into Mid March,the Euro mean has been showing this the  last couple days the MJO should stall out as its in Africa/Western IO for a few days basically from a ERW,it should eject  into the IO days after,you should be seeing these more amplified troughs progress into East Asia like the Euro is showing as the MJO chugs along towards the Maritime.JMHO and not a forecast

[vortexse93]

This is the first look at any of the higher resolution models and kinda of impressed that the HRW-FV3 not being supercell heavy as it usually is. It also follows the trends of the EURO, GFS and NAM where the best instability will be at for Tuesday. If supercells were to develop, it would not shock me to see them in Louisiana into southern Mississippi. For rest of Central Mississippi, still expecting damaging winds to be the main concern with potential for embedded tornadoes in the line. However, it will be solely dependent on if instability will be present across Central Mississippi for storms to be tornadic. There is plenty of forcing present, but you still need fuel. Chasing to looks to be a no go at this time and I think I will wait for the next system. 

[vortexse93]

44 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Think we are fixing to get into a real active pattern as we get into Mid March,the Euro mean has been showing this the  last couple days the MJO should stall out as its in Africa/Western IO for a few days basically from a ERW,it should eject  into the IO days after,you should be seeing these more amplified troughs progress into East Asia like the Euro is showing as the MJO chugs along towards the Maritime.JMHO and not a forecast

This is some good news for me at least. Tuesday is still looking like a poor chase day for me and will look ahead once Tuesday is over with. 

[jaxjagman]

Like to see what the JMA shows the next few days,These ERW'S  are much slower than Kelvin,i think the Euro mean this afternoon is right to a certain extent but ,i really believe the MJO signal should stay into the IO past mid March  and  longer,really think its gonna be a active pattern we start to see,like Jeff said in the spring thread,buckle up !!

[vortexse93]

 

As a storm chaser, this is a no go situation for me down here in Jackson. Model guidance has continued to show instability struggling to advect north of I-20. Model guidance showing southwestern MS into southern Louisiana as the best environment for tornadic storms given that synoptic forcing and favorable directional shear will be in place (this includes the best potential for supercell). In Southwest MS, it is heavily forested so chasing down that way is nearly impossible and very challenging also. If the setup was for the Delta, would make a more of an attempt, but that is not the case today. 
 

The question of the day is: Will storms out run the environment? With the strong low level jet forecasted to be 70 to 80 kts and bulk shear values around 60 to 80 kts, this could very well be in the cards. With this being a possibility, it’s not worth chasing either. 

 

For me, pending timing and where the breaks in the line ends up occurring, may head out to the Reservoir to get some pictures and lightning photography. The southern part of the Reservoir will give me the most open view towards the north looking over the water. While I don’t think the greatest tornado threat will be to my north (reasons stated above) I think it will be a good opportunity to at least test my equipment for the season at the very least.

[dwagner88]

I'm a little surprised to not see a high wind warning from MRX for the valley tonight. We appear to be surrounded by them on all sides now. My point forecast mentions gusts to 55 mph, which I believe is well within warning criteria.

[John1122]

The wind is intense here. It's been raining down tree limbs all day. 

[vortexse93]

Last time I looked, the wind gust in Jackson MS was 44 mph at one time and that was before the arrival of the line around noon today. 

[John1122]

I'm sustained  S at 25 with a 50mph gust in the 5 o'clock hour. 

[John1122]

I'm up to house shaking status on the wind front now. My peak gust has been 61mph.