nrgjeff Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Thank you @jaxjagman re KU but I got Auburn winning it all. If so hopefully Pearl pulls out an Israel flag too. Can I say that in Weather? Cut down the nets while singing War Eagle and Am Yisrael Chai! Alright to the severe. Yeah next week still has the signal. MJO and others may not stick in the same phase for long. That said it's possible to reload week 3 per @vortexse93 chart. Temps could really swing around. Maybe snow in between? Just kidding! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 I guess we can’t forget to watch for system as model guidance going into early March. While it was not on my initial radar (no pun intended), it is something to consider in potentially chasing, especially if the EURO model is right. The GFS shows a quicker and more northerly path while the EURO has a slower and more southerly path. If this counts for anything, the EURO-AI is also favoring a the southerly track. As for the GFS and EURO ensembles, they both show a similar trajectory to that of the EURO with the GFS ensemble splitting the difference more or less between the EURO data and the GFS data. As @nrgjeffsays, “Chase early and often will be the memo this year.” 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 GFS has missed the system every run since the one posted above. Meanwhile the ECMWF and every other ensemble or AI model has it. So.. the GFS is trash. ECMWF is centered around Tuesday night around our region. Could be late Tuesday could be early Wednesday. First week or March is well within climo. It's not often but it happens. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: GFS has missed the system every run since the one posted above. Meanwhile the ECMWF and every other ensemble or AI model has it. So.. the GFS is trash. ECMWF is centered around Tuesday night around our region. Could be late Tuesday could be early Wednesday. First week or March is well within climo. It's not often but it happens. It appears the GFS is trying to hold onto the quick little shortwave instead of it developing into a more long wave trough. The 12z GFS ensemble is also to be trying to do the same. Interesting that the GFS is the only showing this type of solution. Given the current timing, chasing could be difficult since we will be in early spring and night time chasing is not my cup of tea. Meanwhile, I’m still waiting for the 12z CFS to see what mid-March is still showing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Yeah, just saw the Euro and thought that looked ideal for y’all severe folks next Tuesday evening. Hopefully it will QLCSify by the time it gets to the plateau, if it happens as the 12z Euro depicted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Yeah, just saw the Euro and thought that looked ideal for y’all severe folks next Tuesday evening. Hopefully it will QLCSify by the time it gets to the plateau, if it happens as the 12z Euro depicted. No QLCS, I need sups to chase lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 I like what the EPS shows right now but this could still change by then.Right now its showing a trough in East China then Yellow Sea , Koreas with a ridge around Japan around Mrch 4-5,this could be severe around March 11-12..JMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 Think myself its to fast myself right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 Into March the MJO the models want to mute the signal from Rossby Waves once again,it still should be relevant and not go into the COD as fast as most are showing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted Wednesday at 12:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:18 PM Have not looked in great detail for early next week but will continue to monitor this setup for the next several days. Not surprised to see an early March setup given how unusually warm we have been this week so far in this region. As others have already mentioned, this system could be more of a QLCS type event. If that’s the case, might just sit this one out or possibly go get lightning pictures off the reservoir Tuesday night. Only time will tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Wednesday at 02:00 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 02:00 PM 1 hour ago, vortexse93 said: Have not looked in great detail for early next week but will continue to monitor this setup for the next several days. Not surprised to see an early March setup given how unusually warm we have been this week so far in this region. As others have already mentioned, this system could be more of a QLCS type event. If that’s the case, might just sit this one out or possibly go get lightning pictures off the reservoir Tuesday night. Only time will tell. The Euro the reflective maps shows a possibility of some discrete storms ahead of that line in your parts,but that far out we know that drill ...lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted Wednesday at 04:05 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:05 PM 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: The Euro the reflective maps shows a possibility of some discrete storms ahead of that line in your parts,but that far out we know that drill ...lol I have noticed that also but my two big rules I have for chasing are: 1). Do not chase at night ever. 2). Don’t chase through the woods and over the hills to grandmother’s house we go or in the case in Dixie Alley lol. I just have to see and wait to see how things play out next week before making any decisions on chasing. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Wednesday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:54 PM I chase at night. I chase in the jungle. I chase in the hills. I buy stocks during bear markets. All about risk tolerance. Oh but 3/4 are not true above. Also it's too early to time it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted Wednesday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:34 PM Interesting to see local TV mets in East TN talk about severe potential 1 week in advance. That is definitely something they don't usually do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted Thursday at 01:54 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:54 AM Decided to do some digging into the CIPS Analog and found a rough match to what the models are signaling for early next week. Given the similarities between the CIPS match and the current model guidance, it would not be all that surprising to see a similar setup where the focus will be mainly wind along with flooding. With how the the model guidance been trending, early next week is looking more like a QLCS event more so than a supercell event with the environment favoring a high shear - low CAPE environment. While it is way to early to o get into the heavy details for next week, it would not shock me to expect the tornado threat to be more of a secondary issue at this moment. I am not saying the system won't or it will over-achieve; I am saying the model data and the analog does not support a big tornado threat at this time. Also, when systems tend to be QLCS dominant from the start, the environment seems to struggle in being tornado producers (this is based on my experiences and observations). When also comparing to the analog, it also seems to support that next week could very be more of a damaging wind and flood threat over a tornado threat. Time will tell and expect model data to change between now and then. I just thought it would be interesting to at least share and compare what model guidance is showing vs the CIPS Analog had picked out while I had the time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Thursday at 01:52 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 01:52 PM On 2/25/2025 at 5:08 PM, jaxjagman said: I like what the EPS shows right now but this could still change by then.Right now its showing a trough in East China then Yellow Sea , Koreas with a ridge around Japan around Mrch 4-5,this could be severe around March 11-12..JMO Dunno this far out but this still to me anyways should be around the time for the next chance of severe after the one upcoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Thursday at 02:15 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 02:15 PM I like what the JMA is showing.There is a ERW in the eastern IO today and should progress into the Western IO/Africa and slow the signal down and potentially stall it out for a brief time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Thursday at 02:38 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 02:38 PM Actually most of the models show the potential of the MJO to stall out in either Africa.Western IO today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Thursday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:45 PM Tee it up! South is probably appropriate with multiple rounds. Wherever the outflow sets up, is gonna light up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted Thursday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:02 PM 16 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Tee it up! South is probably appropriate with multiple rounds. Wherever the outflow sets up, is gonna light up! 12z data does a complete flop from yesterday. There goes my forecast discussions and CIPS Analog analysis for the week. If you don’t mind, I might be in the corner crying lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Friday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:16 PM Well then, getting right into the heart of our Regional forum. Need the Western Crew to join the party! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 06:46 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 06:46 PM 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Well then, getting right into the heart of our Regional forum. Need the Western Crew to join the party! Pretty impressive dynamical system right now being shown by the Euro this afternoon what ever happens, on the time stamp on the pic the pressure drops to 979MB 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 07:28 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 07:28 PM Still think the next chance of severe should come into wk 2 of March.Euro is showing a trough into East China /Yellow Sea with a ridge over Japan.IMO this could be a trough in the plains with a ridge in the east.Still should be around the 11-12th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 07:30 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 07:30 PM 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Still think the next chance of severe should come into wk 2 of March.Euro is showing a trough into East China /Yellow Sea with a ridge over Japan.IMO this could be a trough in the plains with a ridge in the east.Still should be around the 11-12th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted Saturday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:58 PM My discussion for regarding Tuesday Severe WX: This appears to be a QLCS driven event from the start. Most of the long to medium range models appear to be in agreement with storm mode and track with this system. However, there is some differences on the timing and how far north the instability will advect northward. Just by glancing through the model data this morning and from what I have gather through the CIPS Analog (last day to reference CIPS Analog for me at this point) nothing screams tornado outbreak at this time. Also it is worth noting that the current CIPS Analog does not have a good match for this when compared to the model guidance (this could change). With that said, this is appearing to be a system not worth chasing IMO only. Low-level jet of 60 to 70 knots from all the model guidance screams linear storms and fast moving storms. Secondly, instability will struggle to advect northward throughout the day, which leads to how much energy will be present at the time. Another issue is that the positioning of the Low. It will be well to the north which does not help with directional shear (speed shear will most be there no doubt). Also, the overall environment is not supportive for supercell storms out ahead of the main line. So for me, as a storm chaser, this is appearing to be more of a no go at this time. This subject to change as we get closer into time but time will tell. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Saturday at 06:08 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:08 PM 2 hours ago, vortexse93 said: My discussion for regarding Tuesday Severe WX: This appears to be a QLCS driven event from the start. Most of the long to medium range models appear to be in agreement with storm mode and track with this system. However, there is some differences on the timing and how far north the instability will advect northward. Just by glancing through the model data this morning and from what I have gather through the CIPS Analog (last day to reference CIPS Analog for me at this point) nothing screams tornado outbreak at this time. Also it is worth noting that the current CIPS Analog does not have a good match for this when compared to the model guidance (this could change). With that said, this is appearing to be a system not worth chasing IMO only. Low-level jet of 60 to 70 knots from all the model guidance screams linear storms and fast moving storms. Secondly, instability will struggle to advect northward throughout the day, which leads to how much energy will be present at the time. Another issue is that the positioning of the Low. It will be well to the north which does not help with directional shear (speed shear will most be there no doubt). Also, the overall environment is not supportive for supercell storms out ahead of the main line. So for me, as a storm chaser, this is appearing to be more of a no go at this time. This subject to change as we get closer into time but time will tell. I dunno,its still 4 days out you still will see changes i believe.Its getting into NAM now but i wouldnt trust it 84 HRS out, but sometimes it does pull a rabbit out of its hat..lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted Saturday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:55 PM 36 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I dunno,its still 4 days out you still will see changes i believe.Its getting into NAM now but i wouldnt trust it 84 HRS out, but sometimes it does pull a rabbit out of its hat..lol. I never trust the NAM lol. In seriousness, I’m not liking this setup one bit. On paper yes, this has the potential for QLCS tornado event, but the struggling CAPE has me concerned especially as someone who is thinking about chasing. I just think this will be more of a damaging wind threat vs a tornado threat. Also, i think the 60-70 knt low level jet will either force storm merger to occur faster leaving limited time for storms to remain discrete and/or will cause storms to be highway speed so chasing becomes very difficult. Could the low level jet help overcome the weak/struggling CAPE, yes, but is that something I am willing to bet on as a chaser, no. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Saturday at 10:31 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:31 PM Tuesday will likely be intense along and south of US-82 where breaks in clouds prime things. Even possible up to I-22. Basic pattern recognition shows Tuesday will be an event. Details are TBD. NAM will become useful inside 36 hours. Same with the ARW. Should be 24-36 hours for FV3. I'd wait until 12-24 hours for the HRRR and RRFS (if it even updates). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted Saturday at 10:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:52 PM My senses tell me we aren’t in the right area for this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Saturday at 11:51 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 11:51 PM 59 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said: My senses tell me we aren’t in the right area for this one. . Could be right,climo alot of Tn is around mid March,but in occasion this time of year you can still get one.I know we did get a tornado in the first of March of 2017,but Vortex is in Ms., its climo for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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