TV Severe Weather2025-?

[jaxjagman]

Starting a new severe thread since the last one was back into 2021,plus we want to keep severe out of winter threads unless we get a severe threat at any time.

But this looks like a potential active season right now ATM.Right now the IO is fixing to come pretty active the next few days in which should/ could possibly strenghten LaNina upcoming the next  weeks ahead as we head into March.

So post your Forecast and OBS from now on here please

[vortexse93]

My two cents are La Nina years = Dixie Alley and thats it. I am still trying to figure MJO patterns with tornado frequency but keep this on tabs for when we hit Feb. 

[jaxjagman]

On 1/17/2025 at 7:26 PM, vortexse93 said:

My two cents are La Nina years = Dixie Alley and thats it. I am still trying to figure MJO patterns with tornado frequency but keep this on tabs for when we hit Feb. 

Shoot i wouldnt rule out you guys getting some strong storms upcoming,AAM seems fairly coupled with the MJO,if this were certainly a month or two later you'd probably have alot more confidence

[PowellVolz]

On 1/17/2025 at 3:20 PM, jaxjagman said:

Starting a new severe thread since the last one was back into 2021,plus we want to keep severe out of winter threads unless we get a severe threat at any time.

But this looks like a potential active season right now ATM.Right now the IO is fixing to come pretty active the next few days in which should/ could possibly strenghten LaNina upcoming the next  weeks ahead as we head into March.

So post your Forecast and OBS from now on here please

glad you started this thread. I love winter and lots of snow but severe stands my neck hair up. However I’m thankful ETn is typically on the outside looking in. I’ve added mountain waves to my bucket list. I’d really like to take a day trip to Camp Creek. Cove Mt in Wears Valley is another great spot but 80+ mph winds in the GSM turns me off a little. lol…

[PowellVolz]

I also noticed the SW part of the country is warmer and dryer than normal. This could contribute to a better EML or it could be to strong and cap Dixie off later spring into early summer. 

[vortexse93]

5 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Shoot i wouldnt rule out you guys getting some strong storms upcoming,AAM seems fairly coupled with the MJO,if this were certainly a month or two later you'd probably have alot more confidence

Can you go into more detail how this and MJO helps with tornadoes along which phases are prone an active tornado season? I typically use ENSO as it is the one I am more familiar with and understand the most. 

[vortexse93]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

I also noticed the SW part of the country is warmer and dryer than normal. This could contribute to a better EML or it could be to strong and cap Dixie off later spring into early summer. 

So is it too late to say I already got one funnel and one wall cloud in Dixie this month out in the MS Delta?

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, vortexse93 said:

Can you go into more detail how this and MJO helps with tornadoes along which phases are prone an active tornado season? I typically use ENSO as it is the one I am more familiar with and understand the most. 

I have more papers buried in my bookmarks, but this might be what you are looking for?

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0289.1.xml

[vortexse93]

13 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I have more papers buried in my bookmarks, but this might be what you are looking for?

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0289.1.xml

This would do for the AAM. Do you by chance have anything on MJO as well? Pending tomorrow's winter storm, might need something to pass the time tomorrow. 

 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, vortexse93 said:

This would do for the AAM. Do you by chance have anything on MJO as well? Pending tomorrow's winter storm, might need something to pass the time tomorrow. 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00263-5 Try this one,not sure its what you want.Some of my links ive had for many years,some were deleted and now some are behind a pay wall now.Jeff might be able to help you out more

[vortexse93]

26 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00263-5 Try this one,not sure its what you want.Some of my links ive had for many years,some were deleted and now some are behind a pay wall now.Jeff might be able to help you out more

Appreciate the links. I did read the AAM one and it was very interesting and makes more sense on the by certain phases favor tornado seasons. 
 

Also, if you haven’t checked it out, ENSO looks to stay in a La Niña phase for much of the early part of the spring according to the EURO so something to watch for in combination with the AAM.