TV Severe Weather2025-?

[jaxjagman]

Starting a new severe thread since the last one was back into 2021,plus we want to keep severe out of winter threads unless we get a severe threat at any time.

But this looks like a potential active season right now ATM.Right now the IO is fixing to come pretty active the next few days in which should/ could possibly strenghten LaNina upcoming the next  weeks ahead as we head into March.

So post your Forecast and OBS from now on here please

[vortexse93]

My two cents are La Nina years = Dixie Alley and thats it. I am still trying to figure MJO patterns with tornado frequency but keep this on tabs for when we hit Feb. 

[jaxjagman]

On 1/17/2025 at 7:26 PM, vortexse93 said:

My two cents are La Nina years = Dixie Alley and thats it. I am still trying to figure MJO patterns with tornado frequency but keep this on tabs for when we hit Feb. 

Shoot i wouldnt rule out you guys getting some strong storms upcoming,AAM seems fairly coupled with the MJO,if this were certainly a month or two later you'd probably have alot more confidence

[PowellVolz]

On 1/17/2025 at 3:20 PM, jaxjagman said:

Starting a new severe thread since the last one was back into 2021,plus we want to keep severe out of winter threads unless we get a severe threat at any time.

But this looks like a potential active season right now ATM.Right now the IO is fixing to come pretty active the next few days in which should/ could possibly strenghten LaNina upcoming the next  weeks ahead as we head into March.

So post your Forecast and OBS from now on here please

glad you started this thread. I love winter and lots of snow but severe stands my neck hair up. However I’m thankful ETn is typically on the outside looking in. I’ve added mountain waves to my bucket list. I’d really like to take a day trip to Camp Creek. Cove Mt in Wears Valley is another great spot but 80+ mph winds in the GSM turns me off a little. lol…

[PowellVolz]

I also noticed the SW part of the country is warmer and dryer than normal. This could contribute to a better EML or it could be to strong and cap Dixie off later spring into early summer. 

[vortexse93]

5 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Shoot i wouldnt rule out you guys getting some strong storms upcoming,AAM seems fairly coupled with the MJO,if this were certainly a month or two later you'd probably have alot more confidence

Can you go into more detail how this and MJO helps with tornadoes along which phases are prone an active tornado season? I typically use ENSO as it is the one I am more familiar with and understand the most. 

[vortexse93]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

I also noticed the SW part of the country is warmer and dryer than normal. This could contribute to a better EML or it could be to strong and cap Dixie off later spring into early summer. 

So is it too late to say I already got one funnel and one wall cloud in Dixie this month out in the MS Delta?

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, vortexse93 said:

Can you go into more detail how this and MJO helps with tornadoes along which phases are prone an active tornado season? I typically use ENSO as it is the one I am more familiar with and understand the most. 

I have more papers buried in my bookmarks, but this might be what you are looking for?

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0289.1.xml

[vortexse93]

13 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I have more papers buried in my bookmarks, but this might be what you are looking for?

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0289.1.xml

This would do for the AAM. Do you by chance have anything on MJO as well? Pending tomorrow's winter storm, might need something to pass the time tomorrow. 

 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, vortexse93 said:

This would do for the AAM. Do you by chance have anything on MJO as well? Pending tomorrow's winter storm, might need something to pass the time tomorrow. 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00263-5 Try this one,not sure its what you want.Some of my links ive had for many years,some were deleted and now some are behind a pay wall now.Jeff might be able to help you out more

[vortexse93]

26 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00263-5 Try this one,not sure its what you want.Some of my links ive had for many years,some were deleted and now some are behind a pay wall now.Jeff might be able to help you out more

Appreciate the links. I did read the AAM one and it was very interesting and makes more sense on the by certain phases favor tornado seasons. 
 

Also, if you haven’t checked it out, ENSO looks to stay in a La Niña phase for much of the early part of the spring according to the EURO so something to watch for in combination with the AAM. 

[vortexse93]

Please reference the figures above for this discussion.

 

While I would typically wait and do this type of sub-seasonal forecast for the months of MAM, some of the data in the CFS and the EURO Weeklies caught my attention and wanted to at least discussed the small window that could make Feb very interesting. Starting off with temp anomalies, both the CFS and EURO weeklies are showing above avg temps for a large portion of the Southeast US by the middle of the month along with above avg precip over the Lower Ohio River Valley into the Upper MS River Valley during this time span. This also evident in the CPC Outlook (not shown) for the month of Feb which speaks volume to what the models are showing at this time. 

While temp and precip anomalies themselves can not predict or give the proper insight into convective forecasting, the mere fact of them overlapping each other within the same time frame does suggest there is a window of opportunity there. As for sfc features, the CFS is not quite sold on a sfc low being in the right place at the right time, but does in fact show a possibility of one.  If timing and placement of the sfc Low is right, then there is a quite possible that we could see convective storms around the middle of month across the Southeast US which would include, TN, AR, MS, and AL.

Something to consider in all of this are the teleconnections and their role into making this happen. With the MJO, while it does perform better during the spring time months, there is still good possibility that it will be in favorable phase to amplify the subtropical jet by the time we get into mid-Feb. Timing of this will be extremely important as temps should be well above avg and could give the proper set or at least on the grand scheme of things. As for ENSO (while not shown), it is too in a favorable phase for tornado activity in the month of Feb and should remain in La Nina for quite some time as we head into MAM time frame (another discussion down the line).

Despite the recent arctic airmass across the Deep South, the airmass should be able to recover as suggested in the long range and climate models. The AO should be back into a positive phase during this time which should also help the airmass recover. How long will the AO stay in the positive phase is another question in itself. This recovery from the recent arctic blast will need to be watch as we head into the month of Feb. While model guidance is trending towards above avg temps, it would be a matter by how much and when. Any more arctic airmass blast could closed the window on any convective storm potential around mid-Feb, which is why it is so important to keep on this from now on. 

While we are several weeks out from this, I think personally the window for convective storms around mid-February is possible, especially if the climate and long range model guidance continues show above avg temps and preicp in the region along with the proper synoptic-scale features in place. Main thing to keep in mind will be the MJO phase and the AO phase. I have read and looked into the AAM teleconnection, unfortunately the time scale is way out of reach for this particular teleconnection, but it is something to check on towards the end of Jan into the first week of Feb. Right now, the middle of Feb has my attention and will see how it goes from here. 

Since I am still new on here, in no way that I am saying that there will be convective storms, I just think that the window is there, especially with the temps, precip and with some of the teleconnections at play and from what I have seen. I am also interested to see feedback and others think about mid-Feb.