jaxjagman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Starting a new severe thread since the last one was back into 2021,plus we want to keep severe out of winter threads unless we get a severe threat at any time. But this looks like a potential active season right now ATM.Right now the IO is fixing to come pretty active the next few days in which should/ could possibly strenghten LaNina upcoming the next weeks ahead as we head into March. So post your Forecast and OBS from now on here please 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 My two cents are La Nina years = Dixie Alley and thats it. I am still trying to figure MJO patterns with tornado frequency but keep this on tabs for when we hit Feb. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 On 1/17/2025 at 7:26 PM, vortexse93 said: My two cents are La Nina years = Dixie Alley and thats it. I am still trying to figure MJO patterns with tornado frequency but keep this on tabs for when we hit Feb. Shoot i wouldnt rule out you guys getting some strong storms upcoming,AAM seems fairly coupled with the MJO,if this were certainly a month or two later you'd probably have alot more confidence 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/17/2025 at 3:20 PM, jaxjagman said: Starting a new severe thread since the last one was back into 2021,plus we want to keep severe out of winter threads unless we get a severe threat at any time. But this looks like a potential active season right now ATM.Right now the IO is fixing to come pretty active the next few days in which should/ could possibly strenghten LaNina upcoming the next weeks ahead as we head into March. So post your Forecast and OBS from now on here please glad you started this thread. I love winter and lots of snow but severe stands my neck hair up. However I’m thankful ETn is typically on the outside looking in. I’ve added mountain waves to my bucket list. I’d really like to take a day trip to Camp Creek. Cove Mt in Wears Valley is another great spot but 80+ mph winds in the GSM turns me off a little. lol… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I also noticed the SW part of the country is warmer and dryer than normal. This could contribute to a better EML or it could be to strong and cap Dixie off later spring into early summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Shoot i wouldnt rule out you guys getting some strong storms upcoming,AAM seems fairly coupled with the MJO,if this were certainly a month or two later you'd probably have alot more confidence Can you go into more detail how this and MJO helps with tornadoes along which phases are prone an active tornado season? I typically use ENSO as it is the one I am more familiar with and understand the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: I also noticed the SW part of the country is warmer and dryer than normal. This could contribute to a better EML or it could be to strong and cap Dixie off later spring into early summer. So is it too late to say I already got one funnel and one wall cloud in Dixie this month out in the MS Delta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, vortexse93 said: Can you go into more detail how this and MJO helps with tornadoes along which phases are prone an active tornado season? I typically use ENSO as it is the one I am more familiar with and understand the most. I have more papers buried in my bookmarks, but this might be what you are looking for? https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0289.1.xml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 13 hours ago, jaxjagman said: I have more papers buried in my bookmarks, but this might be what you are looking for? https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0289.1.xml This would do for the AAM. Do you by chance have anything on MJO as well? Pending tomorrow's winter storm, might need something to pass the time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, vortexse93 said: This would do for the AAM. Do you by chance have anything on MJO as well? Pending tomorrow's winter storm, might need something to pass the time tomorrow. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00263-5 Try this one,not sure its what you want.Some of my links ive had for many years,some were deleted and now some are behind a pay wall now.Jeff might be able to help you out more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 26 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00263-5 Try this one,not sure its what you want.Some of my links ive had for many years,some were deleted and now some are behind a pay wall now.Jeff might be able to help you out more Appreciate the links. I did read the AAM one and it was very interesting and makes more sense on the by certain phases favor tornado seasons. Also, if you haven’t checked it out, ENSO looks to stay in a La Niña phase for much of the early part of the spring according to the EURO so something to watch for in combination with the AAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Please reference the figures above for this discussion. While I would typically wait and do this type of sub-seasonal forecast for the months of MAM, some of the data in the CFS and the EURO Weeklies caught my attention and wanted to at least discussed the small window that could make Feb very interesting. Starting off with temp anomalies, both the CFS and EURO weeklies are showing above avg temps for a large portion of the Southeast US by the middle of the month along with above avg precip over the Lower Ohio River Valley into the Upper MS River Valley during this time span. This also evident in the CPC Outlook (not shown) for the month of Feb which speaks volume to what the models are showing at this time. While temp and precip anomalies themselves can not predict or give the proper insight into convective forecasting, the mere fact of them overlapping each other within the same time frame does suggest there is a window of opportunity there. As for sfc features, the CFS is not quite sold on a sfc low being in the right place at the right time, but does in fact show a possibility of one. If timing and placement of the sfc Low is right, then there is a quite possible that we could see convective storms around the middle of month across the Southeast US which would include, TN, AR, MS, and AL. Something to consider in all of this are the teleconnections and their role into making this happen. With the MJO, while it does perform better during the spring time months, there is still good possibility that it will be in favorable phase to amplify the subtropical jet by the time we get into mid-Feb. Timing of this will be extremely important as temps should be well above avg and could give the proper set or at least on the grand scheme of things. As for ENSO (while not shown), it is too in a favorable phase for tornado activity in the month of Feb and should remain in La Nina for quite some time as we head into MAM time frame (another discussion down the line). Despite the recent arctic airmass across the Deep South, the airmass should be able to recover as suggested in the long range and climate models. The AO should be back into a positive phase during this time which should also help the airmass recover. How long will the AO stay in the positive phase is another question in itself. This recovery from the recent arctic blast will need to be watch as we head into the month of Feb. While model guidance is trending towards above avg temps, it would be a matter by how much and when. Any more arctic airmass blast could closed the window on any convective storm potential around mid-Feb, which is why it is so important to keep on this from now on. While we are several weeks out from this, I think personally the window for convective storms around mid-February is possible, especially if the climate and long range model guidance continues show above avg temps and preicp in the region along with the proper synoptic-scale features in place. Main thing to keep in mind will be the MJO phase and the AO phase. I have read and looked into the AAM teleconnection, unfortunately the time scale is way out of reach for this particular teleconnection, but it is something to check on towards the end of Jan into the first week of Feb. Right now, the middle of Feb has my attention and will see how it goes from here. Since I am still new on here, in no way that I am saying that there will be convective storms, I just think that the window is there, especially with the temps, precip and with some of the teleconnections at play and from what I have seen. I am also interested to see feedback and others think about mid-Feb. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 If the above does not work out we may have to wait a while. Below reeks of plenty of column moisture but too stable, poor low-level return. Apps surface high blunts the goods. Oh but the said high would tempo weaken and allow a damn warm nose if we want snow. So, color me pessimistic snow to severe. Sorry Default Jeff is back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 54 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: If the above does not work out we may have to wait a while. Below reeks of plenty of column moisture but too stable, poor low-level return. Apps surface high blunts the goods. Oh but the said high would tempo weaken and allow a damn warm nose if we want snow. So, color me pessimistic snow to severe. Sorry Default Jeff is back. Seems like the last 15+ years during the winter there’s been multiple severe events in dixie but the last two have been really quiet. A lot of people thought 2024 fall would be active but it was relatively quiet for the majority. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Yeah my general rules are the following. 1. If we need cold air for snow we will get a warm nose. 2. If chasers want moisture return we will get cool dry air. Getting serious I think 2024-25 winter so far has been a wild ride from Nina to Nino influence. MJO been hoppin' and mixin' it up. Makes life like a box of chocolates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Seems like the last 15+ years during the winter there’s been multiple severe events in dixie but the last two have been really quiet. A lot of people thought 2024 fall would be active but it was relatively quiet for the majority. To be fair with last year’s ENSO, we were in an El Niño going into a La Niña. Historically, El Niños tend to have less active tornado season across the Southeast as a whole. When we made the switch to La Niña, it was a little late for the Southeast if I do recall correctly. That’s why I am a little excited about this season since we are in a La Niña maybe it will give more opportunities to chase. Now this will be dependent on the other teleconnections including the AO, MJO, PNA and the NAO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Euro has a boundary lifting though the Tn Valley around next weekend,if it right then would be also a line of severe storms possible with DP'S 60+all the way up into the lower OV 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Models are showing today SO far right now the best chance for severe would be the lower MV up into the Mid South into wk2 kinda like PV maps are showing up top,i'm just looking at DP's right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 8 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Well, if this comes to fruition, my forecast would bust oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 Guess we will know more in the next few days,but its a train wreck into the IO right now with Rossby and Kelvin waves.But i'm starting to like the GEFS.It seems like the EWB west of the IDL will start to get broke down into early Feb this should/could strenghten the MJO signal into the WP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Will keep this short, want to save the good stuff for MAM or try to at least. The CFS is continuing to show potential for a mid to even late Feb severe weather potential. Some of the things I do like is the ridge off of the Appalachian Mountains seems to be weakening, this is based on both the CFS and the recent EURO weeklies (not shown here) However, the NAO does remain positive well into this same time frame. Can the AAM get into a favorable phase as well, it is possible, but will it stay there is another question. At least for now, it is something to watch for still going into the month of Feb. I am liking what I am seeing with above abv temps in the long range along with some troughness out of both the CFS and the EURO weeklies towards the Rockies and Central Plains. Will like the NAO to be negative, as it gives a better opportunity for troughs to dig a little deeper south but one can only hope at this stage. It is a very much see and wait type situation at the moment. But seeing the model guidance trends, mid to late Feb could provide a teaser into what MAM could have in store for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 Thought Middle Tn would get put in a slight risk the last update but they left us in a marginal still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A conditional risk of a few strong or severe storms exists over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee late Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will be situated over the Pacific Northwest, with an early disturbance lifting into MT with height rises over OR. Otherwise, a westerly flow regime will exist across the rest of the CONUS, with various embedded waves. One such lead wave will move across the central Plains during the day, and will quickly move into the mid MS and lower OH valley during the evening and overnight. At the surface, high pressure will be strongest across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but another lobe of surface ridge will extend into the Southeast. Modest southerly low-level winds will maintain a moistening air mass from TX into the TN Valley, as a warm front lifts across TN and into KY. Overnight, a cold front associated with the midlevel wave will be near the OH River between 06-12Z, likely interacting with the moist plume. ...KY/TN/MS/AL... During the day, a few thunderstorms may develop within the deepening moist plume from northern MS/AL into Middle TN. This will occur with limited surface heating, and primarily in association with weak warm advection and moisture extending up through 700 mb. Midlevel lapse rates will not be very steep, and general thunderstorms appear most likely here. Overnight, as the midlevel wave and cold front approaches from the west, lift will interact with the low 60s F dewpoints and MLCAPE over 500 J/kg, with several thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty for severe risk is regarding low-level lapse rates, however, shear will be strong with long hodographs and effective SRH possibly exceeding 400 m2/s2. As such, a conditional risk of a supercell or two will exist, including brief tornado risk as well as strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 National Weather Service Nashville TN 1156 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1155 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 - 70-90% chance for rain Wednesday PM into Thursday, with a 30-40% chance for thunderstorms. Marginal risk for severe storms. - Showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend. - Cooler temperatures next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 A cold front was dropping southward very slowly across the Mid State today. On the cool side of the boundary, low clouds were accompanied by areas of fog and drizzle, particularly north and northwest of Nashville where temperatures were in the 40s. Meanwhile, our southeast areas from Crossville to Manchester had mainly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower 60s. The front will continue to settle southward through tonight with mainly cloudy skies area-wide and lows in the 40s. Slight warm advection over the boundary will begin late tonight, possibly resulting in a few light showers. For Wednesday through Wednesday night, warm advection will increase as northern and southern stream waves come our way in zonal flow and a surface low pressure system develops over the plains. The effects of the warm front will come mostly late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers will become widespread and there will be embedded thunderstorms. Regarding severe storm potential, we are under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5). The risk outline is mainly across the north half of Middle Tennessee for Wednesday evening. By late Wednesday, models are in good agreement with strong deep layer shear of 40-55KT area- wide along with ML capes of 300-500 J/kg. Lapse rates are unimpressive, but the bigger issue will be limited surface based instability under extensive pre-existing cloud cover. There will be a modest push northward of 60+ dew points, but the main action appears to be aloft. This means we may see a few cells with rotation, but low potential for actual severe wx. Even with all the limitations, mention of the severe risk seems reasonable given the conditional potential- meaning IF any strong cells form and become surface based, strong wind gusts will be possible and unfortunately, a tornado cannot be ruled out given the strongly curved hodographs. Later models may offer better insight and allow us to either step up or back off on the potential. Otherwise, soaking rainfall Wednesday PM through Thursday will result in one half to 1 inch of rain area-wide. Temperatures will stay warmer than normal with 60s to lower 70s for highs and lows Wednesday night in the 50s to lower 60s. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Wet wet wet seems to be the theme going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 hours ago, jaxjagman said: National Weather Service Nashville TN 1156 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1155 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 - 70-90% chance for rain Wednesday PM into Thursday, with a 30-40% chance for thunderstorms. Marginal risk for severe storms. - Showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend. - Cooler temperatures next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 A cold front was dropping southward very slowly across the Mid State today. On the cool side of the boundary, low clouds were accompanied by areas of fog and drizzle, particularly north and northwest of Nashville where temperatures were in the 40s. Meanwhile, our southeast areas from Crossville to Manchester had mainly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower 60s. The front will continue to settle southward through tonight with mainly cloudy skies area-wide and lows in the 40s. Slight warm advection over the boundary will begin late tonight, possibly resulting in a few light showers. For Wednesday through Wednesday night, warm advection will increase as northern and southern stream waves come our way in zonal flow and a surface low pressure system develops over the plains. The effects of the warm front will come mostly late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers will become widespread and there will be embedded thunderstorms. Regarding severe storm potential, we are under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5). The risk outline is mainly across the north half of Middle Tennessee for Wednesday evening. By late Wednesday, models are in good agreement with strong deep layer shear of 40-55KT area- wide along with ML capes of 300-500 J/kg. Lapse rates are unimpressive, but the bigger issue will be limited surface based instability under extensive pre-existing cloud cover. There will be a modest push northward of 60+ dew points, but the main action appears to be aloft. This means we may see a few cells with rotation, but low potential for actual severe wx. Even with all the limitations, mention of the severe risk seems reasonable given the conditional potential- meaning IF any strong cells form and become surface based, strong wind gusts will be possible and unfortunately, a tornado cannot be ruled out given the strongly curved hodographs. Later models may offer better insight and allow us to either step up or back off on the potential. Otherwise, soaking rainfall Wednesday PM through Thursday will result in one half to 1 inch of rain area-wide. Temperatures will stay warmer than normal with 60s to lower 70s for highs and lows Wednesday night in the 50s to lower 60s. && It seems like it could be one of those mini supercell days from the wording and the low CAPE environment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 9 hours ago, vortexse93 said: It seems like it could be one of those mini supercell days from the wording and the low CAPE environment. Most models weren't showing a strong inversion until recently,might say chalk one up for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Warned cell just south of Gainesboro: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 Looks better now ,might be headed towards Sunbright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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